Saunders, CF … as Hitter
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Q. Supposing that Michael Saunders WERE a +0 UZR center fielder. That means ... What. to me?
A. It would mean that you have a +3 WAR center fielder, in house, first year arb eligible. And that's if he doesn't improve with the stick.
With no other changes, other than better defensive charting and better pitching, your young CF might "suddenly" emerge as a Kyle Seager-like asset.
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Q. 3 WAR, how do you figure.
A. Well, he already scored +2.4 WAR in 2012 -- 139 games -- after docking him significantly for defense.
He's got a 108 and 106 OPS+ the last two years. A center fielder who hits for that is going to get you 3 WAR. Gutierrez' OPS+ was 105, the year he scored 6 WAR (heh!)
In center field, Michael Saunders' peers are not Jose Bautista and Giancarlo Stanton. His peers are Denard Span and Brett Gardner. He already hits as well as most quality CF'ers in the game.
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Q. Why doesn't it seem like he hits as well as Span and Gardner?
A. He hits very differently than most center fielders.
Let this saying sink into your ears, gentlemen: the human brain does not like unfamiliar things.
(Side note on that topic: psychologists have been puzzled as to why human males react well to Barbie-doll proportions in CGI women -- proportions that would leave women unable to get pregnant. From an evolutionary standpoint, men should hate 18" waists on women.
But psychologists realized: Barbie-doll proportions create an image that is easy for the male brain to process at a glance. And the brain then reacts to the situation as "friendly.")
Our primitive, emotional response to Michael Saunders is that there's something wrong with him. But this creates an opportunity for the non-primitive analyst.
Give the Mariners credit. One thing they have done, is remain open-minded and friendly towards "weird" players. Wilhelmsen, Sherrill, Farquhar, Ackley at 2B, and Japanese catchers, and 41-year-old outfielders ... lots of people.
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Q. Does the SSI community still think that Saunders has room for growth at the plate?
A. MLBScoutingReports.com is not above debate, but they did say one thing that registered a DING DING DING in Dr. D's increasingly age-addled mind...
Approach: Fairly aggressive hitter who doesn’t walk a lot and strikes out too often. Hits lefties well, and does not need to be platooned in any way against them. Needs to improve his pitch recognition, but does have improving strike zone recognition. Likes the ball down and in or up and away.
Hitting Ability: Real fast and powerful hands, pulls them in very well. Has a line drive swing that generates great power, hits the ball hard and on a line with consistency. Uses all fields well, and goes with the pitch. A fastball hitter that is improving on his ability to hit off-speed.
Power: Plus power, to all fields, with the pull field being his strongest. Capable of hitting 20-25 homeruns annually right now, and could grow into a 30 homerun hitter in the future as the fences move in at Safeco Field and he continues to add strength.
SSI has talked constantly about Saunders' swing mechanics -- which he has now pretty much mastered. He keeps his belt buckle aimed up the middle, he finishes his swing at the 1B line, he stays compact.
And we have been aware, at least, of his strike zone recognition. That is "captured" by K/BB and other numbers, and Saunders' numbers are fine there. In particular, his swings outside the zone are now excellent -- in 2013, he dropped from a 30% to a 23% fishing rate. Niiiiicccce!
But I'd overlooked the obvious issue of pitch recognition. Now that you bring it up, Mr. Scout, yes indeed. That has been precisely the issue. Saunders swings ugly over curve balls, winds up "in between" after that, has had bouts of 0-1 and 0-2 counts, etc.
And ... why wouldn't we, the SSI community, understand FOR THIS PARTICULAR PLAYER the need for some more time on pitch recognition?
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. Saunders already is a 100-110 OPS+ hitter in center field. Not only you, but also many people inside baseball, feel that there is a Carlos Guillen / Jose Bautista type breakout lurking for Saunders. The scout, James Parker, finishes with
Projection: An everyday outfielder, who is capable of growing into an All-Star outfielder. Has great power and speed combination, and plays strong defense at any outfield position. If he can improve his ability to hit for average then he will become an All-Star player and cornerstone of the Mariners franchise.
:: taps chin ::
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Q. What's the case against? As far as pencilling him in to 150 games in CF?
A. If you personally see Michael Saunders as a decent glove in CF, then there is no case against. Even before he jells, he's a major asset in CF. And what if he jells? He's one of the 10, 20 best players in the league, an Iwakuma-level find.
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Q. Don't the Mariners need to go defense in 2014?
A. Why? Would that be an emotional response or would it be an intelligent one?
Last year, the intersection of three things created a Perfect Storm of bad defense:
- Weirdly shallow OF's ...
- ... and those OF's being Rauuul, Morse, etc
- Saunders, Maurer, Harang, Bonderman
I hate to say it, but the intersection of those three things does give you a queasy impression that the Mariners have some serious issues in their technical management.
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But it doesn't mean that you now have to have a glove-first team. Bat-first teams win pennants and glove-first teams win pennants, and there's no inherent reason that the 2014 Mariners should be one or the other.
Although, if you're going to have Felix, WBC-san, Taijuan and K-Pax in the rotation, there are four real good reasons not to go glove-first. The more K's, the less the leather matters.
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Q. How does the roster configure, if you pencil in Michael Saunders for 3-4 WAR in center field?
A. You tell me. I'm gonna go figure the marginal value of having Franklin Gutierrez in the 2001 Stan Javier role.
BABVA,
Dr D