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A Fangraphs article insists that Taijuan Walker, Archie Bradley and quite a few other AAA prospects are comparable in value to Masahiro Tanaka.  The conclusion is that teams should be much more careful about trading prospects for stars, which is a position the author has maintained for many years.

The Exec Sum of his argument is as follows:

• Tanaka is going to be paid $120-150M
• Darvish was, appropriately, considered a #4'ish prospect ...
• Therefore he (and Tanaka) are roughly equivalent to (say) Taijuan, who is a #4'ish prospect
• Therefore the best AAA pitchers are worth a minimum of $100M, maybe more
• We underrate prospect value because --- > we want players to "earn" their wages, and we pay them "for past performance"*
• The only reason we don't realize that prospect values are $90-120M is our bias against kids who haven't paid their dues
• "Paying for what already happened" is a sucker's bet; young players are the new Moneyball

*Marcel Lachemann refutes this idea in the comments.  But there are three core concepts in this article, the most important one of which Dr. D agrees with, and which concept is what we are calling to your attention now:

Fangraphs Assertion	Dr. D Response
MLB & fans don't like kids who "haven't paid dues"	Disagree (mostly)
Tanaka, Darvish = Mark Appel, Kyle Zimmer	Disagree (fundamentally)
A few ML-ready prospects are massive	Agree (100%)

Dr. D originally argued ... against the entire internet, it seemed ... that if Stephen Strasburg were indeed allowed to shop his services, he would easily score a $100M+ contract.  This is the point with traction here, it is Cameron's main point, and I think he's right.

Cameron offers the idea that --- > Tanaka's value should make us re-think the value of Taijuan Walker.  This is a cool idea.  (And one that SSI has pressed in the past.)

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A More Dynamic Picture of Prospect Value

I think that there comes a point where the "value curve" of a Matt Moore, or a Taijuan Walker, or a James Paxton, is rising exponentially.  Taijuan Walker might be worth only $10M in May 2013, and then he might be worth $40M in June 2013, and then $60M in July 2013, and then $100M in September 2013.  

This occurs because an athlete demonstrates his ability to succeed in the top league over a relatively short period of time.

Tim Lincecum went from point A, to point B, to point C, in a very short period of time.  That period of time can be identified as "The first time that he threw for the Giants in spring training."  

We are not being facetious ... well, not much.  :- )  Lou Piniella recruited Norm Charlton by watching him throw 4 pitches on the sideline one year.  Here again, we horn-rimmed sabermetricians are hobbled by our lack of respect for the (frequent) ability of pro scouts to gauge a pitcher's ability by watching him perform, especially against elite hitters.

Sabermetricians don't like the idea that a scout can eyeball a pitcher and move him from point A to point B, based on one game -- it makes sabermetricians less important -- but it is true.

You might not realize it, but what ML scouts would dearly love, would be to watch Kenta Maeda work through an ML lineup one time, 9 hitters, in an American stadium in June when the hitters were razor-sharp, and watch just those 9 batters deal with Maeda's 5 pitches.  To them, that would advance their understanding by several miles.

...........

In the real world, prospects move up this curve based on --- > the degree to which ML talent evaluators are buying into their ability to succeed in the major leagues.

And that is appropriate.  Unfortunately, THE key variable is not going to be popular with saber-only analysts, because there are no saber tools available to deal with this variable.

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Valid Conclusion, but False Premise

There is an important difference between Masahiro Tanaka and Taijuan Walker.  

Walker cannot yet execute his curve ball or changeup very well; his command is dubious with his fastball and slider.  Tanaka is, right now, SHOWING pro scouts exactly how he will throw the ball in 2014.  Those scouts are well capable of discerning how effective those pitches will be, in MLB action, because many of them were MLB hitters.  You feel me?

Who is in a position to tell you whether Kobe Bryant's jumper, in the paint, can be stopped ... a fan, or an ex-NBA player?

At this point, the MLB players have a good feel for how the Japanese pitching game affects them.  They've played the WBC.  They've faced Kuroda and Iwakuma.  They can put Tanaka into relief against these experiences.   They know how Tanaka will do ... know, as much as they know about any pitcher, that is.  How will Max Scherzer do?  There are no guarantees.

Baseball America did put Darvish on its prospect list, but that doesn't prove that he was a prospect.  This is the false premise, the point at which we got our sums wrong.

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Let 'em PITCH Baby!

All that said, Taijuan Walker is moving to point C on the curve above, and James Paxton is midway between point B and C.

At any given time, there might be 5-6 prospects, ML-ready, who are approaching $100M in value.  Walker and Paxton are two of them.

It is odd, like Rick says, that so few people realize how good K-Pax is.  The more delicious for you, the SSI denizen .... as it was delicious for you when Michael Pineda rained bloody death on the American League.  It's fun to adopt a player!  The more so when they are no-brainers.

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It's not "insane" to trade prospects for stars; they're not routinely worth $100M apiece.  But you certainly want to be aware of those few prospects who are accelerating up the curve, who are shooting past $50M towards the $100M level.  Right now, that is exactly what Taijuan and K-Pax are doing.

By the way, Cameron argued hard against the Wil Myers trade.  It's quite possible that Myers was, at the time, at point C or D on the curve above.  If so, then in this specific case I think he was right about the Wil Myers trade, and this Wil Myers situation is becoming a club with which to beat GM's for trading prospects generally.  

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Dr's Diagnosis

Masahiro Tanaka isn't a prospect.  He shouldn't be on Baseball America's list; he should be outside that paradigm.  It is arrogant to consider Japan a minor league, a feeder system, when they're kicking our WBC cans all the way down Cooperstown Avenue.  

Pitchers who routinely destroy MLB All-Star teams are not prospects, amigo.  Let Taijuan shut out the NL All-Stars and I'll stop calling him a prospect, too.  /QED

Tanaka is not a prospect in my mind, but more importantly, he's not a prospect in the minds of major league GM's.  He IS, in their minds, a fully proven MLB #1-2 starting pitcher.  If you don't like that, then that's on you.  That is what they believe.

:: shrug ::  Remarkable, isn't it, that GM's value Tanaka far more than they do --- > Matt Garza?!  :- )

BABVA,

Dr D