POTD Scott Baker, RHP
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Q. Scott Baker?! Is he still alive?
A. Ron Shandler sez,
"Perennial elbow issues shelved him back in summer 2011; he finally returned, to start a few games down the stretch. When healthy, he can be counted on for fine CMD (that's walk rate - Jeff) and lots of fly balls.
"xERA history says an ERA around 4.00 is about right. If you feel like gambling, he makes an intriguing STASH (meaning, stow him deep on your roster IN CASE he goes on a run - Jeff) but beware the extreme risk.
"$4"
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Q. He used to be really good, right?
A. He used to be really good, wrong. For a while he used to cobble 3 WAR per season ... how you get credited with 3.9 WAR while getting blasted for 1.3 homers a game and running a 4.37 ERA, I'm not sure.
... This article is headed toward a major crash and burn, I know. Look, I cannot stand to watch Scott Baker pitch, any more than I could Joe Saunders. But objectively speaking he's a good #4 starter. He wins ugly.
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Q. What's so ugly?
A. I once asked this question of an auto mechanic, why he hated the Ford Tempo so much. He walked me around the car. "LOOK AT IT! Look at its bumpers! Look at its fenders! Look at it!"
Baker is the very definition of over-challenging, of a guy who uses maddeningly limp stuff to take on hitters like he was Justin Verlander. Here, even this 2008 video from when he used to be healthy. Flat 91 MPH fastballs combined with mushy 2-plane sliders, and he blows the other guys down.
He used to do this to the Mariners also. His arsenal is just stupid, but you leave town with two runs, six hits and a loss. I never got it.
Come on. If you're going to be a hackneyed, AAA fastball-slider pitcher, can't you put a little Stank on it? This guy violates all that is fair and just in the world.
;- ) We're riffing a little bit. More power to the kid. But still.
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Q. So, smart guy, how does he get 7-8 K's.
A. The fact is, he does have outstanding arm action on his slider. Really great. The slider functions as a changeup, exactly as Michael Pineda's did. Remember that? The shape to Pineda's pitch wasn't the point. It was the way he pulled the string.
Let me take that back. Did we say "exactly Michael Pineda" somewhere in there?
......
He's got excellent pitchability, and the guts of a burglar. He pounds the fastball up, he knows when to jam a guy, and when they start grinding their hands on the bat handle, he humps up and FIIIIRRRRES... a slider.
The HIGHEST walk rate of his career is 2.40. Think about that. He doesn't even have very good command. He just won't walk anybody.
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Q. He doesn't have good command? how can you say that?
A. Oh, if you ever watch him and Iwakuma or Felix, in back-to-back games, you'll get it. Scott Baker can throw to both sides of the plate. But he avoids deep counts by throwing the ball up, where they swing.
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Q. Other pitchers like that?
A. You remember Brian Holman, some of you older guys? Same deal-io.
There is a guy in the National League, named Ian Kennedy, who also pitches up in the zone and never walks guys. But Kennedy has good stuff, as you can see here, and uses curve/change rather than slider. That's a rather important difference.
I don't know of anybody currently pitching, who makes it work in Scott Baker fashion. Chris Bosio was kind of like that, stylistically. Kind of.
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Q. How is he, as a match for the M's?
A. I agree with SABRMatt that the park is a good match ... I mean, if Minnesota can hold his fly balls -- relatively; he gives up 1.2 homers career, mild gopheritis -- you'd think Safeco would.
But you remember how, last year, Felix and Iwakuma had reasonable defense behind them, and everybody else had tragic defense behind them? Scott Baker is most definitely "everybody else." If he does come here, somebody go streaking at Safeco, and when you're taken down, give them that SSI article about moving the OF's back.
As Bill James has pointed out, there are teams for whom Scott Baker would win 20 games. Such as the 1975 Reds. They had the glovework and the big offense. They needed meatballs with 2.2 BB rates on the mound. ... more seriously, it would have been fun to watch him with the Angels when they had Bourjos to go with Trout ... the LA Dodgers would be a great place for him to win 16 games.
... I know what Matty's saying; Baker doesn't walk anybody and if Safeco holds his fly balls, if he came out of the year with an 0.9 homer rate, then sure. You've pulled Ryan Dempster out of your ear for very little salary.
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Q. At least he's healthy now. He's had a long time to recover from TJ.
A. Except he depends on the elbow-rending two-plane slider.
He's only ever thrown 175 innings one time. He's not suddenly going to get healthy at 32.
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Q. How is he, relative to Matt Garza or Jeff Samardzija?
A. ...
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Q. How is he, relative to Jeremy Bonderman?
A. You got me there. If THAT's the plan, bring in Baker as a #6 or #7, then we're in bidness.
If he's a 2014 Bonderman, then he's a Bonderman dee-luxe. No doubts there. :: he stops short :: You know what? Jeremy Bonderman is also a right hand sinker-slider pitcher, no stuff to speak of, who overchallenges. Did you enjoy that? ... Baker is Bonderman with pitchability.
The UP scenario for Baker, in my lab, is 12-9, 4.02, with 7 strikeouts, 2 walks and 1.2 homers. And a group of Mariner outfielders who have very seldom included Corey Hart.
... sigh. Get a grip, Dr. D. Okayyyy, the UP scenario for Baker, in a fantasy world, is to approach a Ryan Dempster season. The two pitchers are not dissimilar. (ouch)
Gimme the two hotshots, one right and one left. Because you realize that with Scott Baker, you're pushing one of 'em out. They're not bringing in Joe Saunderses and Aaron Harangs because they're consenting to Let The Kids Pitch.
That's my opinion I could be wrong,
Dr D