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Spec,
Your site is now on my Favorites page. One of 5 there. Superb stuff. Ackley is such an enigma. But I can't help but believing it is his slugging that will make or break him. In '11 he had a XBH .in 8.7% of his AB's. It was down to 5.9% in '12 and 6.3% in '13. But 13's 2nd half rebound saw it bounce back up to exactly 8.7% again. However it was 4% in the 1st half of '13. North of 8% he has real value. South of that and it dwindles rapidly. He had a .304 BA in 69 AB's in the 1st 1/2 of '11. Then, over 1/2 seasons, it fell like a rock from .265 to .233 to .217 to .205....before the 2nd half bounce last year to (ironically) .304. I am not optimistic that is sustainable...brought on, as it was, by his .358 BABIP. But it doesn't have to, if he can keep his ISO north of .130. He's XBH dependent. You pointed that out to a large degree.
When he starts wearing out the gaps again, I'll be a believer. Right now.....He's worth more in trade as a 2B to someone else.
Earlier today I spent nearly two hours on research and formatting for a "What to expect..." for our Ivy Leaguer, Dario Pizzano. I compared his A-Ball #'s to a variety of guys in the M's organization, both MiLB and MLB. He more than holds his own against our guys.
I also compared his A-Ball #'s to a variety of rather randomly selected MLB LHB's, including Matt Adams, John Jay, Andre Ethier, Daric Barton, John Jaso, Brandon Moss, Gregor Blanco and Michael Brantley.
In the end, I decided that Brantley's bat might be the best template for Pizzano. Their A-Ball #'s were very similar: .313/.406/.377 for Brantley, with 61BB's and 51 K's. .311/.392/.471 for Pizzano, with 61 BB's and 48 K's.
Anyway, after all that effort, my wife accidently dumped my new thread...before I could save it. Alas.....live and learn.
Anyway, I came away with the idea that Brantley's .288/.348/.402 and .284/.332/.396 slash lines over the last two season's were very reasonable for Pizzano to achieve and he could go better (considering he slugged considerably better at A-Ball and was somewhat of a basher in college). Brantley's OPS #'s were 112 and 107. He was a CF (primarily) in '12 and a LF (like Pizzano) in '13.
So I conjectured that Pizzano might easily be a .285-.340-.415 type of guy. I don't think that's a stretch. Can that kid of guy play LF for a winning team? Johnny Gomes was .247/.344/.426 in LF for the BoSox last year. Those are De Aza numbers. Alex Rios is similar. I'm optimistic about out Ivy Leaguer.
Anyway....I didn't have the heart or time to do the whole thread again.....so I'll post it here as a "What to expect" addenda
Hope you don't mind.
moe