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Auto5guy's picture

In Docs excellent article, The Shield is Mightier than the Sword ..., he makes a brilliant observation that the Seahawks have faced a rough equivalent to Manning in Drew Brees. I looked at the defensive rankings, and shooting from the hip, guessed that if you were to substitute the Saints' games against the Seahawks and the Panthers with games against a 20th or lower ranked defense Brees' yardage total would equal Mannings.
Well I went ahead and pulled up some NFL stats and started punching a calculator. (Kindergarten stuff for you SABR guys) First up Manning amassed 5477 passing yards this season to Brees' 5162. The 315 yard advantage to Manning came while playing 68.75% of his games against #20 or worse defenses, only 2 or 12.5% against #10 or better defenses and zero against top five defenses.
Brees in contrast, played 37.5% of his games against #20 or worse ranked defenses. He played the same number against defenses number ten or better and 4 games or 25% of his season against top five defenses. Those teams in the top five are Seattle #1, Carolina #2 (Played twice) and SF #5.
Brees' Average for the season was 322.6 yards per game but his average for those top five defenses was 261.5 yards. His average against the rest of the defenses was 343. I substituted his totals for his games against the Hawks, the Panthers and the Niners with his average against the rest of the teams he's faced and it brought him to a hypothetical 5488 yards. For all intents and purposes exactly the same as Mannings 5477.

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