This post is very optimistic, and has many interesting points. Much like the Mariners. Its nice to have your Tuesday morning infotainment on deck and downloadable from the mainframe, and the price is right too.
My favorite stuff:
It is wierd that Roenis Elias and Dominic Leone were just names in the Spectometer a few months back, and now all will be revealed. Can they withstand ten part POTD's complete with schtick?
Jim Moore, a.k.a. the Go To Guy, is the biggest Debbie Downer on the ESPN 710 Payroll regarding the M's. It must be his history in print journalism. He had this to say: "Maybe [The Mariners will] be the team that Vegas thinks they'll be – setting the over-under on number of wins at 81 ½. I would've put the number at 75 ½, but Vegas is smarter than all of us. If they think the Mariners can go 81-81 or 82-80, be careful if you think otherwise." I have been very interested in the Vegas formulation of baseball odds, as it is unhinged, free market Darwinian baseball analysis. Instead of being similar to human intelligence, Vegas represents a hive mind. The line is moved by the collective consciousness of hordes of analysts who literally put their money where there mouth is. I think the line represents the median where 50 percent of the betters, or more accurately betting power, are willing to bet the under and 50 percent are willing to bet the over. A couple of things: In Vegas, pitching is king. Every line is decided by who is pitching, and all bets are cancelled and returned if any starting pitcher is scratched for any reason. I think the reason Vegas rates the M's as being on par with the rest of the western rabble is that our pitching is at least as good as theirs is. Second, there are no cynical fans in Vegas. When betters are cynical about a good team, Vegas bookies see an opportunity and take the over on an unreasonably low line. By doing this, they are banking a margin of utility that will pay in the long run. Third, the Vegas system is as accurate as any baseball algorithm ever invented, despite arriving at its predictions in a completely off the wall way. Here is one of many articles on the subject.
The Logan Morrison signing was universally panned a few months back, and now with Hart injuries, coupled with a nice spring, he is looking like the key to everything. Also, LoMo was a blogospheric wonder 'spect in 2010-2012, reaching near Stantonesque esteem before he fell off, and here the Mariners bought him for a bucket of balls. Can we say "post hype sleeper"?
Brad Miller.
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