BEATDOWN
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Q. When's the last time the Mariners scored 8 runs, three games in a row? Much less the first three games?
A. I dunno. I'd like to know when was the last time they had any series that was so savage.
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Q. Was it BABIP luck?
A. As Dr. Grumpy says, if you're a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. To a Fangraphs editor, bless his heart, every baseball game looks like:
- Swinging strikes
- Balls outside the zone
- Ball in play --- > sheer luck takes over
Just for your own personal benefit, Dr. D recommends that you stow those cliche's like "a 40% line drive rate has to regress to the mean." That doesn't get at the guts of what was occurring in reality. The Mariners did NOT merely get a bunch of batted balls to simply parachute empty spots on the grass.
We saw some stat like 34 hits, 17 for extra bases, 6 over the fence. Just in Wednesday night's game, in addition to all the doubles and homers, there were another three loud outs, socked way back up against the CF fence.
The series was a gruesome mismatch. Josh Hamilton fanned 4 times Wednesday, didn't he?
Yes, nobody sustains a 40% line drive rate. But that's because of adjustments, because competition finds its level. Not merely because luck starts taking over. In this particular series, the Mariners buried the Angels in a blizzard of well-earned bases.
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Q. How many Angels could start for the Mariners?
A. Trout definitely could. Weaver and CJ Wilson could go 4-5 for us.
;- )
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Q. As with every article from now on, there must be something cool about the Brad "Logo" Miller.
A. When the game was on the line, he had a gorgeous line drive over the shortstop's head to drive in Willie Bloomquist for the 2-0 lead. It advertised, "I am not a strict pull hitter. I am a hitter, and oh by the way I often hit the ball very far." The home runs, by themselves, that's one thing. But it's the off-field hits that scream "superstar."
You saw the double too, the Crazy Legs dive into second base, complete with Ty Cobb Evasion Slide and all the trimmings. You can't stop Brad Miller; you can only hope to contain him.
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Did we miss something, or is he not on this list? :- )
No Mariners (particularly not James Paxton) are on Fangraphs' list of the Top 50 Prospects by 2014 Projected WAR .. whoops! Danny Hultzen is. And Ty Kelly. And Chris Taylor. Whoops! There's Taijuan Walker down there somewhere in the toolies.
Oh ... Miller's not ROY-eligible, right. Okay, let's switch tacks. Every projection system in Creation has Miller pegged at a .401-.405 SLG for the season. Sounds about right to us.
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Bad example, good basic idea, though. Projection systems do not see Cinderella teams comin'. Projection systems assume that 18 players on a 25-man roster can't all have UP seasons together. Projection systems don't get it about screen drills and players fighting to get to home plate.
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Q. Was THIS Justin Smoak home run ALSO on a vicious pitch, like all of Smoak's previous XBH?
A. No. The tater was 94 MPH, plenty of steam on it, but it was out-and-over, tee'd up. Granted, it was an 0-2 pitch, so we'll give Smoak consolation points for going yard in a pitcher's count. Not a lot of dingers occur on 0-2, y'know?
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His right handed 395-foot fly ball to CF for an out, that one was on a juicy pitch. 90 MPH and center cut. (Smoak also had a strikeout; I think he's actually swinging through a fair amount of balls, like Matty sez.)
The single ... on a 3-1 count, Santiago threw a fastball, low, right at the knees. The RH Smoak went down with him and whistled a line drive base hit into LF.
They didn't pitch Smoak all that tough, tonight.
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Q. Who else?
A. I dunno. Six different Mariners had multi-hit games on Wednesday. Have Gordon, Spec, and Mo' Dawg write up two players each.
Corey Hart flashed his massive strength, just swatting at a pitch, no lower body at all, no load, just whacking at a mosquito buzzing his ear. He piffed it over the fence.
Mike Zunino has a scary aptitude for splashing the fence with anything offspeed -- the same pitches that sent Nick Franklin back to the drawing board, Zunino is slobbering over those pitches. He is.
Stefen Romero nearly killed David Freese at third base with a line-drive double off his glove. Stefen said that the nerves are gone now, and he's ready to go.
Michael Saunders seems happy to come back into his platoon bench games in the 6th and 7th innings, which is when a LHP leaves for a RHP to turn the lineup over. If so, that clears the decks for Romero to stay in there vs LHP. I hope so.
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Q. Pinch me. I'm dreaming. Right? Right?
A. Probably most of us now expect to see Smoak's and Ackley's ceiling's in 2014, and for very specific technical reasons.
That would give the Mariners a clear 5 better-than-average hitters (Miller, Cano, Seager with Ackley and Smoak). Then you have DH, RF, CF, and C. The outfield spots are supposed to be bat positions.
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One of you guys, please go back and find some cool stats about this series, like "Mariners had 91 bases to Anaheim's 3" and "first time since 1955 that a recent 513-run team scored at least 8 runs in every game of its first series." You owe me.
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Q. So Los Angeles realizes that Mike Scioscia has earned some respect. He gets at least a week, right?
A. CJ Wilson was pretty iffy about Mike after game 2. Hector Santiago was worse after game 3.
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Bring on da A's,
Dr D