Dude was thought of as maybe the second-best college lefty in his original draft to Mike Minor - and Minor is a really good pitcher. Paxton was erratic in college, with all kinds of upside and things to love, but needing some work to repeat his game. It's taken him years to get it repeatable and getting the hang of that nasty cutter in such a short period of time could really be crucial for his immediate development.
Much like how Putz went from "hard-throwing-6th inning reliever" to "top-5 closer" by picking up one pitch in a noodling session with Guardado... except as a starter. Paxton's cutter works a little like Felix's changeup: it's still really hard-thrown so it's not going to hang or float, but it has both movement and velocity deception. Guys swung through it like it was a changeup, but I have no fear of that thing sitting like a T-ball offering over the plate as long as Paxton keeps throwing it to these locations.
I expected him to have a Kershaw-like delay in becoming a 6 or 7 inning pitcher; you've got to figure out what you can throw, how not to get to so many 3-ball counts, how not to labor when you have great stuff... but if Paxton's cutter allows him to jump that learning factor AND gives him a workable approach when he can't find the feel on his curve... watch out.
Or as Doc says, be afraid, be very afraid. Lefties that throw 94-98, dropping that pitch from on high like divine wrath and brimstone vengeance, and can bomb you with a knee-breaking curve or twisting cutter if you ever start timing the heat? Pretty killer.
Doesn't even need the changeup, though he can keep messing around with it if he wants. All good pitchers wanna get better. Right now, though, Paxton is looking very much like the guy I was afraid he'd be in 2 years if we traded him. I was BEGGING us not to trade him for scrap. No Casper-Wellsian returns. But he's here, and now with any luck he'll be here and healthy and demolishing people with that arsenal for a while.
~G
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