I'm not gonna hold it to precisely what Paxton's done, but let's talk ballpark.
Something like >8k per 9, a plus control rate, miniscule ERA, good in hits, nice win streak to start a career, last 4 decades.
2014 James Paxton: 4-0, 1.16 ERA in 31 IP, 17 hits, 30K / 9BB2006 James Shields: 4-0, 1.80 ERA in 25 IP, 23 hits, 22K / 7 BB2012 Yu Darvish: 4-0, 2.30 ERA in 27.1 IP, 21 hits, 29K / 13 BB1999 Randy Wolf: 5-0, 1.75 ERA in 36 IP, 27 hits, 34K / 12 BB2001 Roy Oswalt: 6-0, 1.82 ERA in 39.2 IP, 29 hits, 40K/ 5 BB2012 AJ Griffin: 6-0, 1.64 ERA in 38.1 IP, 33 hits, 36K / 4 BB2008 Noah Lowry: 7-0, 2.45 ERA in 51.1 IP, 40 hits, 44K/ 10BB1981 Fernando-mania: 9-0, 0.50 ERA in 72 IP, 43 hits (!) 68K / 17BB2006 Jered Weaver: 9-0, 1.05 ERA in 60 IP, 32 hits (!) 55K / 15BB
So there's 8 guys to go with Paxton. I left off Ishii (wildness), Ogando (not enough Ks), Livan Hernandez (same)... but I didn't leave a lot of guys off the list who had the Ks and the lossless line. It's just not easy to open a career that way in 4+ starts. You'll have a bad game. Guys will hit you. You'll get a tough luck loss.
None of those things have happened to Paxton yet, though, and most of that company is elite. Randy Wolf is the worst pitcher on there, and when 5 of your 8 comps are HOF* kind of good... well let's just hope Paxton has the same fortune in his career that Oswalt, Weaver, Shields, Darvish and Fernando have in theirs.
~G
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