… Mariners 5
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Almonte goes 0-fer with 3 K's ... but UP with a bullet
We know you're contrarian, Dr. D. But this is a bit much even for you ... no, really. SSI is this far from buying in to Abraham Almonte. Maybe Lloyd McClendon really does see things, here and there, that we don't?
Start with a little table here. The O-Swing % tells us that Miller has swung at 40% of all pitches not in the strike zone, and I'll bet you can figure the rest out, even if you don't care much a about sabermetrics:
| Player | O-Swing % | Z-Swing % | Swing % | Swing Strike % |
| Brad Miller, 2014 | 40 | 65 | 53 | 14 |
| MLB Average | 29 | 64 | 46 | 9 |
In other words, Miller is fishing for a good amount of sucker pitches. The Logo is very aggressive. For some hitters, this is good. For Vladimir Guerrero, it was good. For Juan Gonzalez, it was good. If you had tried to teach Vlad Guerrero to draw walks, we'd have duct-taped you and thrown you a blanket party.
The gap between the 40 and the 65 is not as large as we'd like it. The bigger the gap, the better. That gap tells you how well the hitter is anticipating the break of the pitches.
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Early in the 2014 season, Miller's aggressiveness is costing him, a little. His AVG is down to .219 and some of y'all are probably wondering whether Miller really is going to be Bryce Harper At Shortstop.
Miller's aggressiveness is not a problem, in my opinion. That's in part because his game is not breaking down in any way, and in part because he has faced a biased set of pitchers. In 7 games, Miller has faced:
- 3 LH power pitchers, including a very rich LH shampoo salesman
- 3 Oakland A's TOR's
- Jered Weaver
It's natural that Miller's strike zone numbers, the first week, would be worse than average. He's faced tougher-than-average pitching.
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But now, another little table:
| Player | O-Swing % | Z-Swing % | Swing % | Swing Strike % |
| Brad Miller, 2014 | 40 | 65 | 53 | 14 |
| MLB Average | 29 | 64 | 46 |
9 |
| Abraham Almonte, 2014 | 18 | 60 | 38 | 9 |
The scouting eye backs up the above numbers. Despite facing tough pitch-ERS and tough pitch-ES, and despite being a raw rookie, Abraham Almonte is having NO difficulty in telling a ball from a strike. He is in fact better at it than any other Mariner except Cano and (guess who?) Dustin Ackley.
2013 was the same -- he had a 25% vs 60% rate. Almonte is a big league hitter (TM) already, in terms of swinging at the right pitches.
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What happens when he swings at the pitches? (1) He makes routinely solid contact, doesn't strike out a lot.
He (2) constantly gets the top half of the baseball and he's fast, so with all these grounders, his BABIP is a healthy .325 and will likely be that high or higher.
He (3) hits the ball quite hard -- Lloyd calls him the new Ron LeFlore -- and when he gets the ball in the air, it goes out of the park a healthy percentage of the time. When he hits a grounder it's got plenty of pace on it.
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It's easy to forget that Almonte is wayyyyyyy inside his 90-game league adjustment period. He looks so veteran-y, doesn't he? But in the long term, given a fair chance to figure out the league, well .... fly by your instruments, not your instincts. On paper, Abraham Almonte is going to be able to OPS+ 100 in the majors.
And if he OPS+'s 100, that's what, 3 WAR. Nobody's asking Almonte to make the All-Star team. But hey, this is collateral damage. He ain't Ron LeFlore in the first week, but he is a major reason they're 5-and-2.
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Stefen Romero
Snared two liners, into the RF corner, that Mike Morse would have run down in about 11.0 seconds. Early on, Romero looks like he'll be one of the better RF's in the majors. Remember, the bar isn't high. Get a load of this fangraphs UZR chart for 2013 right fielders. How can 80% of the league be minus? :- )
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Again Lloyd McClendon substituted Michael Saunders absurdly early -- in the top of the 7th, going into "prevent defense" with a ONE run lead and THREE innings to go. Keep it comin'.
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The M's defensive outfield is fixed. Granted, they don't have any bat-first players out there. But their patchwork 2014 fix will be fine, it seems.
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Corey Hart
Earl Weaver believed, truly believed, that he was "talking past" the rest of baseball when it came to the home run. "I'll never be able to understand why people can't see that it's baseball's greatest play."
Hart was worth 1.0 WAR -- tonight.* He's got that bizarre little "swat" motion with his bat, and when he squares the pitch, well ... we win. Sometimes life is too simple for people.
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Exec Sum
Seven games in, the M's offense has shown up approximately seven times. We're guessing it will again against Richards.
| Game | Runs | GW RBI or R | Remark |
| 1 | 10 | Almonte | Double to CF knocked in Zunino for 4-3 lead. M's tacked on in 9th |
| 2 | 8 | Almonte | Double to LF knocked in Ackley to start a 4-run rally |
| 3 | 8 | Cano | Knocked in Miller for the 1-0 lead. Game was a rout |
| 4 | 2 | Almonte | Manufactured a leadoff run on a grounder; the blown strike call on Eliascost the W |
| 5 | 3 | Ackley | 2-run shot and Felix makes it hold up |
| 6 | 3 | Almonte | Big RBI knock gave M's the lead, but Erasmo had an off game |
| 7 | 5 | Corey Hart | 4+ run inning in each LA game |
You think you can take it from there?
Sabermetricians won't care much for the above chart. McClendon, in the dugout, asks his leadoff hitter to contribute important runs, to be in the middle of rallies in tight games. The "big guns" -- Miller, Cano, Smoak, Hart, Seager -- need somebody up top who is helping, and helping when it's important.
In tough, early-season games, with the M's trying to find their identity ... this is where many past M's rookies disappear. Almonte's up to the fight, and in the first week. This is the kind of thing that helps managers choose players.
The 513-run Mariners didn't worry much about charts like the above, either...
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Dr's Prognosis
The M's tonight can deploy their 8 lefties against the erstwhile Garrett Richards, he of the lifetime 164:90 control ratio. If the M's can poach this one, then ---- > we are:
- 6 wins vs 2 losses
- A day off to bask in the power rankings
- Felix Hernandez, and 40,000 yellow shirts, lurking on Friday
I could live with it,
Dr D