Baseball Prospectus: WBC-San
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Q. What says the jemanjinator? Big $$ to extend Iwakuma?
A. It says here that Mojician has the right opening argument on this one: Iwakuma to play out his current deal, and then see if he can finally get that $100M deal he deserved in the first place.
The M's underpay him this year and next, and that's more than enough exploitation for my (increasingly queasy) stomach.
But, naturally, if Iwakuma would go a 3/$50 extension, you're all over it. (If he wants more, he's got the problem that you can easily wait until next year to talk about it.)
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Q. Is he a "legit number 2"?
A. We get into semantics here real quick.
For some guys, Pedro and the Unit are the only "legit Number Ones" since Tom Seaver. Then you have maybe six or eight "number twos." Those semantics drive Dr. D batty.
.........
Here's the thing. Stats are backwards-looking. We're talking about what a guy WILL do, not what he did done. Iwakuma has 50 starts, not many, so:
(1) Are you going into a playoff series against a team with a rawhide-tough rotation? Say, the Cardinals or Nats?
(2) Are you ready to go to war with your guy in Game Two?
I certainly am. It says here that Hisashi Iwakuma can take his rightful place in a 2 slot in the postseason tournament. You know he can repeat his pitches. You know what he's going to do.
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Q. Is he "nasty" enough for the role?
A. They told a funny story on the radio ... WBC-san chopped down Nori Aoki to start off the Royals game. The Royals came over to get the scouting report.
Aoki shrugged off his interpreter, saying in English, "No Chance." That's all. Iwakuma nonchalantly pulled himself after 90-odd pitches and an 8-inning shutout.
Orel Hershiser -- who threw 50+ straight shutout innings with an 89 MPH fastball -- said,
- Command one pitch, compete.
- Command two pitches, win.
- Command three pitches, dominate.
Iwakuma has carried it across the 3rd winter now, and carried it across another injury, and is once again at 100.00% domination. Like Mo' Dawg sez: call him the Japanese Maddux.
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Q. What saith Ron Shandler?
A. Thusly:
- 117 (sky-high) Base Performance Index (Shandler's golden rule for rankings)
- Groundball arm built (further) on 2012's second half gains to finish in AL top three in both ERA and WHIP
- First half 2013 featured AIRTIGHT control (BB/9) and superb command (K/BB) that he couldn't quite sustain
- Even so, take that second half ... throw in [excellent success vs LHB] ... and [excellent road success]
- At 33, tough to dub him an ace (a Verlander) and expect him to maintain, but you won't pay an ace price, either
- $18 roto (10th in AL/NL combined)
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Q. Any suggestions on aging?
A. Would rather hear from Nippon fans, who are familiar with the high school usage and how they affect NPB pitchers in general...
For every Matsuzaka who burned out, there's a Kuroda who ran 120+ ERA's all the way through age 38 ...
True, he's already had shoulder issues, as did Matsuzaka, AND when his fastball drops 2-3 MPH he's quite a bit more hittable. But as against that, you have the glassy-smooth motion, and the fact that he throws with his body rather than with his arm.
:: shrug :: No idea how he'll age. He's throwing great now, is probably year to year, but could reasonably continue five more years.
Right now we'll match him up against anybody other than Felix, Scherzer, and Verlander, so at $7M per we're looking decent.
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Q. How sweet is this, after Ichiro, after Sasaki, after the pre-2000 flame wars about whether Japan is a minor league?
A. Every pitch, baby. I'm saying, every single pitch. Silentpadna gets half.
Enjoy,
Dr D