Smoak hit 20+ bombs both his soph and jr years in college, and was named the top prospect in the Cape Cod league with wood bats after leading that league in homers. He HAD pop, and the idea was that he would find his pro power after the adjustment fade. And the dude DID hit some prodigious shots his first April/May with us, before his dad died. With his dad also being his swing coach I wonder how things might have been different if he hadn't passed so soon from this Earth.
I just don't think Smoak has the swing and hand-eye to square up balls the way you have to in order to mash at Safeco. His bat is slowish so without squaring it up he's just not able to muscle the ball anywhere. His .160 career ISO and 85 points of patience aren't abysmal, they just aren't 30 2B / 30 HR material. He struggles to go 20/20, unfortunately for us. If he was a .280 hitter the rest of his numbers wouldn't be a problem, though. If you take his OBP and SLG numbers and put em on a .280 hitter, that's a .280/ .365/ .440 line, and a .800 OPS hitter is perfectly acceptable at 1B.
You know what he hits in Texas? .280/ .350/ .455.
Like I've said, when he gets out of the Safe I think he'll be fine as long as he winds up in a hitter's park. We'd be kicking ourselves for taking the Montero deal over the Smoak one if Justin had stayed in Texas and was a .800 OPS batter. Sometimes players simply can't transcend their limitations, and Justin's have been etched sharply here with the Mariners. It'll be better for him when he's in a place where mis-hit balls can still go over the wall, and we'll be better when we get an all-field player who can make better contact.
When do we swap Smoak for Choi again? ;-)
~G
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