Throughout the course of this discussion, so I appreciate you helping me out.
A few notes:
I'd love to see a breakdown of the last 10-20 years of top 100 prospect 1B in their 22-25 seasons. How many flame out and don't make it to the majors by 25, how many make it by 24, which seems to be DJ's trajectory, and then what % do well/do poorly, how many hit like Adams his first two years, etc. This article touches on some of that: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dj-peterson-the-wisdom-of-first-round-fir...
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Adams at face value does seem to be a pretty legit comp thus far into DJ's career. He took more time in the lower minors, but he also was a 23rd pick. Once he hit AA though at his age 23 season, he took off. The ISO jumped to 260, he improved the BB's, the K's jumped only slightly, then the next year he started his descent into what he is today, a free swinging masher. Walks dropped, K's jumped, and the ISO approached 300.
I think Adams' 2013 rookie season is a pretty good baseline for mid projection DJ's first couple years, minus about 40 points of ISO. Safeco is just death on RHB. I still stick with the 260/310/450 ish line for his first full season or two. That's obviously subject to change if he leaps a level or two before he hits Safeco.
Seager was a guy posting 10-12% K rates in the high minors, with healthy BB rates to go with, and he hits left handed. And he's the ONE prospect in the last 5 years that has come up to Safeco and improved since arriving. Not sure he's a good example for prospecting DJ.
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Gun to your head, what do you predict DJ's rookie slash will be in his first full (or 300+ AB) season, assuming it comes no later than 2016? You're right, it will be fun to revisit this 3 years from now and see how we did.
Mine is 260/310/450
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