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My premise is that a guy with a 10-20% chance of reaching 4 WAR as his maximum reasonable upside just isn't all that valuable to have 5 years before he might reach said upside. We're talking about a guy who is probably a year and a half away just from getting his first shot at starting his ML career. Then you're talking about another few years of learning, adjusting, getting stronger, etc before you hit his peak. To me, he isn't all that valuable. I've already stated why, and you've agreed with me on some of it, so no need to rehash that all here.
If you told me I could plug him in starting April of 2016 and he was going to be a minimum 2 WAR kind of player, and hit his 4 WAR peak a few years after that, then sure, I'd value him differently. But where there exists upside, there also exists downside. He may never develop, and in four years may be in a different organization. It's just basic prospect projection. As it stands on July 16 2014, I don't hesitate to pull the trigger on a trade that makes sense for this team involving DJ, and I don't wait for a superstar return to make it.
I don't like the Moss, Craig and Lind examples because you're talking about guys who are in their age 28-29 seasons putting up wRC's in the 135-140 range. You're not expecting him to put those numbers up in his first two seasons are you? And even if we did give DJ a 2 WAR projection 3 years from now, that 2 WAR season from Moss last year put him 15th out of 25 1B. In 2012, that would have put him 13th out of 25. So middle of the pack, and that's what we seem to agree is his mid-high projection. And again, that's 2017, 2018.
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I hope my position isn't misconstrued as, we should dump him for a relief pitcher, or he has very little value. I'm not saying that at all. I just jumped in to point out why I think there should be some serious consideration given to the idea that DJ isn't all that glamorous as a prospect, as we sit today. By next June, maybe he adds a 3 or 5 points to his walk rate, or cuts his K rate to 15%, or continues slugging in the upper echelon of MILB. If that's the case, you'd certainly have to valuate him differently.