The Mariners are in the fairly rare position of having two TOR arms (and Elias as a MOR) coming up at the exact same time. The As had something pretty close to this, with Hudson showing up in 99 (IIRC) and Zito and Mulder dropping in for 2000. In 2001-2003, their ERA+ went 122, 106, 123 - showing off that volatility that Matt spoke of. But pitching's volatile - I don't think that's a surprise to anyone. I'd still rather run a Big Three out there and take my chances with that kind of volatility.
The Giants had it too, but stretched it out. They dropped Cain into the rotation in 2006, Lincecum in 2007 along with Barry Zito, Unfortunately for them, Zito fell apart instead of being a legit Big Three-er, and Sanchez flamed out. They had to wait for Bumgarner in 2010, and then wound up winning two titles. Even with just the big two of the Freak and Cain, though, they were pretty special. ERA+, 2009 to 2011: 120, 117, 109. Then a funny thing happened - the offense they'd been building to support such a great pitching staff matured and they won that second title more with their bats than their arms. Even as the staff faltered, the offense picked up the slack.
The Mariners need to build their offense. The arms should be good, but we can't count on them all being phenomenal again. Even the greats have down years (Felix isn't always a 160 ERA+ pitcher). I think we have enough arms to throw at the problem, especially in the pen, to offset that sort of general volatility. If Maurer struggles, we have Smith and Brazis and whomever to patch that leak with. I would have no problem trading some 'penners like Medina in a package for one of those bats we need, either. We can backfill.
But nothing makes a young-but-potentially-great rotation struggle like the idea of never getting run support. Felix and Kuma can handle that. They've been around a while. I don't expect Walker and Paxton to like getting a billion no-decisions and 2-1 losses. Not with equanimity.
We have the chance to build a real year-after-year contender here. Let's not blow that by making rookies our only salvation, either on the staff or in the lineup.
I expect us to get a vet arm again, a la Young. I want another vet lefty, a la Biemel. And I'd like two bats. One very good one and one average-ish would be fine, honestly. Maybe we have to trade a pitcher like Elias to get said bat. Nothing says the kids we have now will all still be here in February for Spring Training.
But there's a lot to build on. If the Ms call the process complete and just wait for the roof to stop leaking on its own, we'll be in trouble. I don't think any of us think that this exact team is the best contender we can put together for 2015.
I would like to see our opponents cringe in anticipation rather than sigh in relief when they see our offseason. The time for the nice day at the ballpark and a miserable product on the field is over. Let's go try to win something, shall we?
~G
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