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I'm soaking in the Ian Desmond rumors and I come across a few Tweets/posts out in the, somehow, more popular Mariner blogs. Something along the lines of Steamer projection think Taylor and Miller project to more WAR this year than Desmond will. The conclusion on 'that side' of the blogosphere was the M's would be stupid to have anything to do with Desmond because of these projections that are calculated in... Wait, where again?
Now, I'm not naive. I see Brad Miller's upside and, boy, it's hard to not get excited. Taylor could turn into Jack Wilson in his prime, with a little more contact. They both have upside but we're talking about winning a world series in 2015, if I remember right. There's a chance that these 2 put up better seasons than Desmond (there's also a chance J.A. Happ could somehow be worth more than Michael Saunders, Heaven forbid...) but it seems like these other blogs (mainly just one that I'm thinking of) are taking these projections as gospel. To me, I'd much rather rely on the last 3 seasons of actual results than what anyone tries to project going forward. Those results tell me that Desmond hasn't had a WAR below 4 since Brad Miller was drafted. They also tell me that, while Miller/Taylor have tons of talent, I should be a bit concerned about them winning us a pennant in 2015.
What do you think about this Projections vs. Past Results thinking?