.
You might have read the Robert Asprin Myth series. His early books are jam-packed with witty sci-fi ideas, one of which is the construct that every mythological creature in our lore is a "dimension traveler" / "demon." Aahz and Skeeve, our heroes, visit the dimension of "Trollia" to find that the males are "Trolls" and the females are "Trollops." His second book writes itself from there...
Aahz is from the dimension "Perv." Skeeve asks, in all naivete, Does that make you a Pervert, Aahz? "No, kid. It makes me a Perv-ECT. Now shaddap."
We earthlings are from the dimension "Klah," which makes us ... Klahds.
At the Bazaar at Deva, the inhabitants are swindling Deveels with red skins and horns, which we "exaggerated" into the concept of literally selling your soul to them ... the Deveels don't buy souls in Asprin's books, but they're impossible to outnegotiate. Aahz tells his apprentice, "If you think you've gotten a good deal from a Deveel, first count your fingers, and then your limbs, and then your relatives."
It's like the 1983 WarGames, in which the computer blows up the world in simulation, trying every variation, and then finally informs "Dr. Stephen Falken" (LOL!) that Global Thermonuclear War is "A very interesting game, doctor. The only way to win is not to play."
.......
Which is where Jeffy comes in again, arguing (reasonably) that the Cubs must have had something in mind when they shed Justin Ruggiano. The Cubbies, for some myth-terious reason, preferred to onload Chris Denorfia at the same $2.5M salary that Ruggiano makes. That's a little bit like saying "I'm not sure who the Cardinals' quarterback was, but they tried to trade him for a fellow who was enshrined in the Hall of Fame about six years ago."
I don't know that I believe that trading with the Cubs is quite like playing Global Thermonuclear War, but it's a good talking point. Why did the Cubs shed Ruggiano -- 4.4 WAR in 1,200 AB's -- for a generic replacement-level player?
.......
The first way in which we might try to solve the problem: as we would if we were computers. Lay out the options logically, as if in a Phil 102 class, and calculate the WAR.
Most important: remain intuitively disassociated. When you get to the final evaluation nodes, select the one with the highest positional value.
This is fine as far as it goes, but Dr. D has his reservations about trying to think like a computer. He has a bit of woe-inducing experience with trying to think like computers do. Some of them perform 500,000,000,000,000 floating point operations per second; Dr. D performs 1. He'd better find a different way to think.
........
Second approach: use educated human judgment to form an educated human guess as to why the Cubs wanted Denorfia rather than Ruggiano. Don't be afraid to relax, let your mind drift, and simply think about the problem lightly and naturally, as Deepak Chopra would. Or as a cat would ... just before it is consumed by a raccoon. There's an SSI analogy in there somewhere.
While OM'MMING your way towards Platoon Enlightenment, don't forget that the Cubs threw Ruggiano away. G-Money's sackcloth and ashes aside, they took back very little for him in comparison of what we hope he'll be. (The analogue to Seth Smith, for whom we gave up Luke Hochevar the Sequel).
.
.
Following his Chopra-style breath meditation, Dr. D finds the following scenarios all 100% plausible and likely:
- The Cubs were pretty scared Ruggiano was falling off, like we are with Austin Jackson
- The Cubs were tired of his not being ready to play, like we were with Michael Saunders
- The Cubs wanted somebody less platoony, somebody more everyday-able (okay, ANYday-able)
- The Cubs were sure they could upgrade, like we were in RF, until it turned out they couldn't
These are all routinely the root cause of a Ruggiano Shed, and in Seattle we're hoping it's #2, #3 or #4.
I'll plump for #3. Ruggiano had 142 at-bats in Chicago vs RHP's, vs only 82 (!) vs LHP's. For a guy whose main skill is anti-leftyness, that's weird. It's like saying using Marshawn Lynch as a safety valve in the flat. Oh, wait ...
Ruggiano could very well be about to fall off a cliff at age 33. If he does, Zduriencik will have to find a Jesus Montero or Stefen Romero or D.J. Peterson who can hit LHP's. Until Ruggiano falls off, though, the M's have a (vs LHP) slash line equal to Nelson Cruz' (vs both) slash line. And it plays center field.
The M's have certainly added a lot of "bit part" players who crashed and burned horribly, Denorfia being one of them. He hit .195 here, and his batting average was the best thing he did. Sullivan's worry about Ruggiano is legit. Any possible replacements you got in mind, who might be available by May 25th?
..........
A little bit on aiki mechanics. Here, check out this off-field HR in cozy Wrigley. And check out this HR Derby moon shot off a high 86 MPH fatball. And here he is scrounging a deceptively-squared-up single off the end of the bat, with no acceleration or kinetic energy to speak of.
Justin Ruggiano has:
- A long swing
- A very slow "gather"
- A compact followthrough (in this case showing the early max-accel point, far behind the strike zone)
- A willingness to let the ball get deep
- Big-time physical power
The Old Man in Kung Fu Hustle pointed a gun at his temple, blasted his own head off, except he caught the bullet in two fingers first. Bored, he told the Hatchet Gang, "in the world of Kung Fu, speed decides the winner."
In the world of Aiki-Doc, Justin Ruggiano is painfully slow to the strike zone, but awesome if and when he gets there. Compare Ken Griffey Jr. at age 39 or so. Compare a 50-year-old boxer who used to be world champ. Larry Holmes can still punch out 99.99% of people in the world. The problem is, Yu Darvish ain't in that 99.99% of people in the world.
In the world of Five Animals, this player is a rhinoceros. If you get in his way, you're an ex-parrot, but then again, when's the last time you were in the way of a rhino?
A pro batter has a lot more perceptive time RH-on-LH than he does LH-on-LH. IFF and only if Ruggiano is spotted against LHP's, we're sure he'll do plenty of damage. By "plenty" we'll say, "more than James Jones' 586 OPS."
If the Mariners' #4 outfielder slugs .512 against lefties next year, playing CF, and is allowed to do mostly that? He's a championship benchie. In any case, the 2015 Mariners are liable to have fewer than -5.3 WAR off their bench.
5.3 wins woulda come in handy last year.
BABVA,
Dr D