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That 2003 rotation was, in order of importance,
Shiggy had his epic year (zero-plus ERA way into the summer) and the M's went 93-69. But generally speaking, the presence of Roenis Elias does not obviate the question of Wilhelmsen As Starting Pitcher. And the fact that the Mariners once owned Omar Vizquel does not eliminate infield defense from 2015 discussion.
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Hit & Run sez,
Remember how exciting it was to contemplate the prospect of the big four all in the same rotation with Felix? Walker, Paxton, Hultzen AND Maurer? When Maurer was the first to advance to the Majors, much was made about his lack of an out pitch against lefties. That was before Maurer's new change up and before this article:
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/10/10/6953829/the-transformation-of-b....
... Of the ~70 MLB relievers in 2014 who threw at least 30 innings and regularly utilized a changeup (≤10% of the time), Maurer's ranked as the BEST changeup in baseball."
Why consider Wilhelmsen without re-considering Maurer? Just tell Maurer to pitch as a starter just the way he does in the bullpen. All out till his arm is tired and the skipper takes him out. Seems I read somewhere that other starter turned reliever turned starter found success that way.
- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/do-ms-have-pitching-spare#commen...
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Dr. D sez,
I knew that Maurer had made a lot of progress with his changeup to LH, but ... was so focused on the Hochevar Redux thing ... forgot Gordon's (eternal) point about how much more valuable Maurer could be in the rotation.
Except for his max-effort, no-rhythm motion, Brandon Maurer is also a prototype power right hander. That point is not in dispute.
Scherzer has a pretty max-effort motion, crash-acceleration thing going too. Some RHP's do. Maybe Brandon Maurer's control is good enough for three times through, if he just remembers not to over-challenge. We are talking about a Bansai tree that could score a $100M contract some day.
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Gordon sez,
Was any 97 MPH arm used in lower-leverage situations than Wilhelmsen? Like watching someone use a bazooka to swat a fly.
... It's not like we don't have relievers coming out our ears: Rodney, Lord Farquhar, Medina, Furbush, Leone and Carson Smith (who didn't give up a run in his 8.1 IP in 2014) are all back in the pen next year barring trades.
Matt Brazis is the next Leone, and he demolished High Desert and Jackson. Mayckol Guaipe was always big and sloppy, but this year he got big and dangerous - like Medina with half the walks.
Oliver Garcia is a name you probably don't know, but the Ms took a raw arm from the Dominican and have spent the last two years teaching him how to pitch. At 11K/9 in High Desert, I'd say they're succeeding. Pagan is probably a year away, as is Grady Wood, and there are a host of lower-level arms on the rise as well in bullpen roles.
Where you gonna put those guys? I would trust Brazis and Wood NOW in the bigs in the "Don't get in without us having a 4 run lead" Wilhelmsen role, or in long relief. - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/do-ms-have-pitching-spare#commen...
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Dr. D sez,
I hadn't realized the leverage thing w/r/t Maurer. Wilhelmsen's leverage index was 0.98 (good relievers should always be above 1.00; their innings should be more important than "average") ...
... but Maurer's leverage index, 0.78, was crazy. (Maybe it was part of a profound psychological approach entirely beyond my perception.)
This discussion has real traction.
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Wasn't trying to subliminally discourage y'alls Maurer fervor with a photo of Gil Meche. Not every Gil Meche is Gil Meche, and then again Gil Meche did have two years as a star.
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Andrew Rice's LL post on Maurer's changeup was brilliant. The only thing I'd add: Maurer's "slider" became a SUPER CUTTER against lefties and he is absolutely destroying LH. He's doing it reliably. That change/cutter death march would not change in the rotation.
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I think I'll just devise a script that promotes random Think Tank comments to the front page, and go to Tahiti.
Just read that the Diamondbacks (are they still in the league?) have secured the services of the NEXT BIG THING out of Cuba, for a paltry $11.5M p.a. through 2020. Where wuz Jack?! This guy was s'posed to go for $100M, plus! And it came down to an NL West bun fight, by all accounts. Boo!!
I'm definately a Yes on stretching Wilhelmsen out in ST and seeing what that looks like again.
I'm a Maybe on Maurer. I loved his tail on fire rhythm out of the bullpen. Nary a shakeoff, just nod and chuck it. Mark Buehrle and Brandon Maurer are about as far from one another as you can get, in terms of pitching stuff and style. But I read an interview with Buehrle in Sporting News this summer that Maurer should read. Buehrle (who has NEVER missed a start in 14 seasons) said he never shakes off a catcher because it makes him think too much and how does he know he's right and the catcher is wrong, anyway!
Convince Maurer to take a page from that Buehrle book and I won't mind seeing him get a few ST starts, too.
I think that smokin' tempo accentuates the deadliness of his changeup as well.
I could live with those guys racking up some wicked 7th and 8th innings, as well. But if it works, 160 Chris Young- starter innings out of one of those guys would be quite nice.
I like the fire Maurer showed out of the bullpen and because of that, it's tempting to think about how that could work in the rotation. On the other hand, what's coming out of the bullpen is working pretty well, so why mess with it?
Honestly, I don't know how you make this sort of decision with either Maurer or Wilhelmsen. The physical tools seem to be there with both players. Probably, it comes down to a judgment call based on less-easily defined factors like "makeup".
One item to consider with both players is that they would have the advantage of making the transition to the rotation with excellent defensive catchers behind the plate in Zunino and Sucre (assuming Sucre is the backup in 2015).
You could give the two SP/RP's a trial run. With the Bartender they kinda tried it last year; on July 18 for example he had a 4.0 inning appearance, 1-hit shutout, 4:0 strikeout to walk, threw 95 MPH on pitch #50 of the game.
You can quibble about it, but we got something of a look at him as an SP last year. He would probably sit 94 MPH as a starter.
Okay, but wouldn't you need to test it over a series of starts to really know? And what if the results are mixed? You know, where the guy goes 5 innings, scatters six hits and maybe gives up two runs, and then has a little bit of trouble in the sixth and gives up three more. Not a horrible outing, but not awesome either. Do you keep testing the situation when you're in a division that could have 4 legitimate contenders next year and every loss matters? Do you keep testing and hope to catch lightning OR do you go with what you know works now that is helping you shorten the game most nights? Shortening the game was a big part of 2001.
It would be interesting to know what the Mariner brain trust is thinking on this topic. It seems like there's good arguments both ways.
To 'really know' is kind of a different question :- )
I think we were talking about whether it's a good idea to give Wilhemsen a shot at starting -- say, in Arizona in March. We've had a glimpse. We can get a longer look in ST. We can give him a normal trial (like Erasmo, Taijuan, etc) any time.
There are no guarantees in baseball, up to and including Hisashi Iwakuma ... guys get hurt, guys pitch lousy, etc etc ...