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Should have mentioned James Jones...was kind of in a hurry when I re-crafted my list. Let Denorfia off on purpose...no point even discussing him. :)
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Earlier, we did SABRMatt's "bumper stickers" on the infield. He wanted a smackdown between himself and Bob Dutton. Dr. D is happy to don the zebra shirt and throw all the yellow flags at one side. He thinks he's got the hang of it, based on a half-season's worth of "NFL Parity" syndrome.
The first line below is SABRMatt's take on each player. He says that it was re: Free Agents that he (in real life) provided these to the Steinbrenners and their ilk. If so, we'll assume that he did it in his below 30 words, not the 8 we requested. Soooo ...no grumbling from Dr. D this time about conciseness. Also, Ron Shandler uses the 30-40 words scheme and Shandler fits them inside (literally) a postage stamp area.... font size: 18 electrons.
But, it still has to be fair to Dutton. So Dr. D will reduce SABRMatt's opinion to a Dutton-sized byte.
Hey, why isn't DR. DETECTO giving his own bumper stickers? Too much commitment. He was born a ramblin' man. (No, not in his literary style.)
On the infield, SSI gave Dutton the nod, 4-3. The outfield bumper stickers:
.......
LF Dustin Ackley - Dismal September casts a huge doubt on second half surge - watch groundball spray chart for pulled choppers in ST
(EDIT - 2H surge but Sept. collapse. Must show liner-to-LF game in ST)
TNT: Projects as LF, but needs to avoid another slow start
Dr. D: A'ight! A clean win for Matty!
RON SCHINDLER: Once a player shows a skill, he owns it. In September we talking about the evil wood sprites in Ackley's head, or in his beard, or wherever -- not the league "discovering" an Ackley weakness and "booking" him. One day, Ackley will rake. Whether it happens in Seattle, I doubt Dr. D any longer cares much.
........
CF Austin Jackson - Swing well and truly fouled up and lifeless in 2014, but no sign of loss of reflexes, should rebound
(EDIT - Off his game after trade, but physical skills intact. Look for repeat of 2013)
TNT: Disappointing after Detroit trade; needs to recover form
Dr. D: My edit didn't help, did it? Matt didn't need it for content, either. A clear 2-0 lead to the math major.
...........
RF Michael Saunders - Breakout in 2015 likelier than ever (that is to say, was 10% likely, now 20% likely. - can he stay healthy?
(EDIT - Has big UPside still. DL time makes for dice roll.)
TNT: Likely trade bait if M's acquire much-needed RH bat
Dr. D: Draw. Not a boring, 0-0 soccer type draw, but a quality draw. And, yeah, this was after the "Food Fight" revelations.
By the way... how do you trade a very talented young OF after you just gave him 261 AB's? Who gives you value?
BENNY HINN, WORLD'S GREATEST SALESMAN: If you don't feign enthusiasm for your product, who else is going to?
..........
OF ENDY CHAVEZ - Had one of his hot streaks in 2014 - not buying it for 2015
(EDIT - n/a)
TNT: Could hang around as a backup outfielder
Dr. D: This is a polite entry by Dutton, who has to roam the clubhouse after he writes this stuff. But, hey, if the beat writer suffers from an away-field disadvantage, that's his problem. Matty's up 3-0.
I do assert plagiarism, though, that anybody would give Chavez any real credit whatsoever. I won't tolerate it. I thought made that clear in my last Bill James poach.
..............
OF CHRIS DENORFIA - SABRMatt seemed to forget about him
(EDIT - n/a)
TNT: Unlikely to return; did little after arriving from Padres
Dr. D: If we gave Dutton a harsh loss there (Chavez), we've got to give Matt an outrageous loss here. And he hasn't even been watching Seahawks-Rams games to harden himself for it.
The writer's got to be super confident that he won't have to face the player in February. Dutton and I are free to rip Denorfia on exactly the same basis. We've got as much chance of seeing him next year.
................
OF JAMES JONES - See Denorfia. What? Part of the test is reading the instructions carefully. "40-man roster" bumper stickers, buddy.
(EDIT - n/a)
TNT: Speed makes him likely choice for 4th OF
Dr. D: It would be too outrageous to give Matt a full loss on both Jones and Denorfia. We'll reluctantly limit his loss to one for both blank spaces. It's 3-1.
................
OF STEFEN ROMERO - Missed chance to start, probably never will again in Seattle - plate skills VERY raw and unreliable
(EDIT - see Dutton's serendipitous edit below)
TNT: Missed chance to grab regular job; faces longer odds in 2015
Dr. D: Wowza. Matt had meant, "See if I say the same thing as Dutton," not "Grab a cheap billable URL with a cheesy "faceoff" gimmick. All right. On this guy, you said the same thing as Dutton.
This reminds me of a Historical Personages stage play. Thomas Edison and Thomas Jefferson, angry with each other, were arguing about "Truth." Edison and Jefferson, who couldn't agree whether the wall was white, finally hit on something ... "Humans are conscious," or somesuch. "Yes! I agree that's truth! But ..."
Cleopatra scoffs. "I see. Truth consists of what YOU two AGREE on." Brings the house down.
Any resemblance to me and csiems is purely coincidental ...
.... ;- )
..............
Matt threw another one in here:
OF DJ Peterson - Up with the big club by September at the very latest, see the last comment from scouts -
(EDIT - no idea what the last comment was)
TNT: ... talks about Morban instead ...
Dr. D: Adroitly, Matt listed DJ as an outfielder. Zduriencik has said "you never know" about DJ and March. DJ is now hitting .215/.350/.360 with a 9:8 EYE in 42 at-bats in Arizona. That's a whale of a lot of pitch stalking.
Kivlehan is .290/.380/.580 with a 7:7 EYE in 52 AB's. Rusney Castillo ain't.
..............
FA ADD - Nothing
(EDIT - The only thing he ever got paid for, and he clams up)
TNT: M's will go after Victor Martinez, big time
Dr. D: You've got a Stars & Scrubs thing going in Seattle. Where "Stars" is defined as "1970's Dodger Infield with Martinez," and where "Scrubs" is defined as "Outfielder."
It's another 5-to-make-3 thing in the outfield next year, and it should be. My own idea is probably that if you can't get a Kemp-level Star, then let the Scrubs take their hand brushes to the bathroom. And we want those bowls GLEAMING.
What's your best 5-to-make-3?
It includes a stealth Michael Saunders, scheduled for 261 AB's but who gets 561 when he slugs .572 in Safeco. And it includes another year or two of Dustin Ackley, because once you bake the cake you gotta wait for the fork and party hat.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
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Jackson: Lacks some.
Saunders: Has to bench press to impress.
Chavez: Cheap and cheerful, can fetch.
Denorfia: Don’t deny he’s awfulia.
Jones: A good thief but potential grief.
Romero: A lover not a hitter.
Peterson; He goes First, not to be Left Out
FA Add: Cruise with Cruz
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It reads: Special Teams. Free Safety. Can Hit (kick returners). Can Hit (white spheroids).
Unless we're all in on a COF FA AND keep Saunders, Kivlehan will be up by June.
See Joe Panik.
See Kyle Seager.
OK, Seager's first MLB game was July 7th...but you get the idea.
Seager at AA Jackson (age 22 with 179 MiLB games behind him): .312-.381-.459
Kivlehan at AA Jackson (age 24 with 234 MiLB gmes behind him): .300-.374-.485
Up by July, anyway.
Go team
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I think the M's may be speaking very loudly between the lines about what their short list looks like this offseason.
Three 'clues':
1) If Cruz was turned down last year because of his PED history, they're not going to change course now. Ditto Melky and any other free agent offenders.
2) If Mr. Dutton says they're going to 'go hard' after Victor, it has to be because someone in the organization told him they were. If so, the takeaway is clear: "we're willing to write a big check--again." (FWIW, I believe Victor stays in Detroit, Cabrera injury or not).
3) The Mather comment suggesting they might be avoiding players who might be prone to frequent injury or whose best years are clearly behind them knocks off about every viable free agent.
So, today's thought: does this translate to spending the money on an in-his-prime outfielder by absorbing a good chuck of salary in a trade?
If so, the targets are pretty simple to imagine--the names everyone's been talking about forever.
But as Professor Jack always reminds us, it takes two to tango.
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Er, sorry if this here's Naughtiness Incarnate, but I just wanted to point out that the writer of that Forbes article is a Deliberate Deceiver. He fails most adroitly to mention that the survey he's talking about is of folks working for the oil and gas extraction industry in Alberta.
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As we know, the M's have nothing against 'rushing' players to the bigs ...
To kinda pile on your point ... Seager had the 179 MiLB games but of course also the NCAA career. Kivlehan's way, way ahead of where Seager was, no doo'ts there ... admittedly, Seager wasn't promoted based on his sabermetrics, but because Zduriencik's scouting genius came up 7's on that player...
You see Kivlehan maybe cutting into line ahead of D.J. Peterson?
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Great post, wrong thread ... net gain: plenty
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1) Spot on
2) Spot on times two
3) Interesting. You're talking bats? Scherzer doesn't fit...
But yeah. This logic points to Matt Kemp, but Mojician neatly pointed out that such APPEARS to be dead end, at least to me and him, from behind our computer monitors.
.......
Thirteen's idea was a rent-a-bat, then bid in pre-2016 for one of the 6-8 bats pending then. Also forceful logic, though (1) trade-and-signs don't seem common in baseball, so it really would be a rental, and (2) in the intervening year, who knows what happens to those 6-8 bats, and (3) half of them are Honda Civics anyhow.
Not to take anything away from the logic.
There's the "Targets" list by Bat571, four or five cubicles to the right.
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It's worth remembering that Deej only had 120 games under his belt when he hit Jackson last year. Kivlehan had 104 more. But Deej, like Seager, had 3 seasons of NCAA ball, Kivlehan only one.
Basically they are about at the same place in their career arc. as the AFL assignment for both shows.
We're signing a DH bat, likely. And we have LoMo. Peterson just has more in front of him, I think. Ackley and (especially) Saunders are available, in all liklihood. Kivlehan has a clearer path, I think.
Hunter Renfroe, Addison Russell, Corey Seager, Byron Buxton, Rusney Castillo aren't "owning" the AFL like Kivlehan. OK, SSS, I know...but the kid is good. He's short, simple and quick to the ball, plus he's WAY athletic. It's hard not to see him hitting some....more than enough to carry his weight. Unless he can't hit the curve or slider worth a like, he's fast-tracking. But hey, good MLB sliders get everybody out most of the time.
Also, he plays a position that we could use some help at. Bat sees him as a super utility guy, not me. He's going to be an everyday COF, soon.....
Last year guys like CJ Cron and Andrew Susac beat up on AFL pitchers and then got the MLB call after 49 and 63 games, respectively. Khris Bryant, Travis Shaw, Stephen Piscotty all spen the full year in AAA, however.
But this is Kivelhan's 2nd time at the AFL rodeo. He was .164-.215-.213 with 3 BB's and 17 K's in '13. Something has clicked. Romero was .212-.273-.333 last year with 4 BB's and 19 K's, then he ripped in ST and we brought him north.
If Kivlehan hits in ST, and he will get some whacks, it will be hard to keep him on the farm for long, unless we've added a Kemp and kept a Saunders, or something like that.
Deej will be on his heels.
moe
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there are three or four trade target outfielders on Z's 'trade depth chart' that no one else is talking about.
I honestly think that after improving the team, his second priority might be making people say, 'wow--I didn't see THAT coming!' (Jay Z and Jack in the same photo--ever?!)