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Justin is an Orioles fan and the oldest Detect-O-Vision denizen who still comments (except when Silentpadna does). He's always had a very fine feel for AL roster moves, especially over toward where he lives in Baltimore.
Can't miss a chance to poach his stuff for a freebie URL:
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No comment on the Royals. Too soon, lol.
Martinez and Detroit seem to be very high on each other, but not sure where he fits in with their other priorities. Scherzer about to become a free agent and possibly gone. Price a free agent after next season. Their bullpen completely failed them in the playoffs. They seem to be becoming increasingly aware that defense can't be ignored. Someone made a post on here a few weeks ago comparing the M's to the 2000 team. Detroit reminds me of the '97 Mariners, perhaps my favorite team of my lifetime - superstars and scrubs, but with the same perfect flaws.
Haven't followed the M's too closely, but I question if Martinez is even the type of hitter the team really needs. I think he's one of the best (and perhaps most underrated) contact hitters in the American League. Safeco probably eats his HR power alive, particularly as he gets older. No position flexibility, obviously no speed. Not saying he'd necessarily be a bad fit (especially considering the lineup balance), just doesn't strike me as the right guy to go all in. Maybe he becomes the default choice because of lack of options, but I think the ideal would be a trade for a power-hitting corner OF preferably a few years younger than Martinez.
If not a bat like that then maybe just go all out on pitching and get Lester. With the new TV deal revenues, we're moving away from the environment where you can decide you want a premiere FA and just outbid everyone else. There are more teams ready to spend big money than there are elite free agents deserving it. The team needs to distinguish itself outside of money to snag a big FA. (I think Cano is a closet Griffey worshipper and JZ knew how to reel in Jay-Z) The M's have a path to Lester with the Tacoma connection. Maybe that's huge to him, maybe it's meaningless. Regardless, that's a starting point they don't have with other elite free agents and you know they can sell Safeco to any starting pitcher. I'd be a lot more comfortable with them committing $25-30 mil per year on Lester than $15-20 mil on Martinez. And if Paxton and Walker happen to jell next year, a rotation with Lester could be one of the best of this generation.
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Let's Exec Sum that, the way we might have for an F-500 exec:
- Suspect that Detroit may get serious about building a BALLCLUB, and letting V-Mart go
- But! V-Mart probably won't benefit the Mariners as much as people are assuming ...
- ... Pay the extra to get a truly helpful bat that fits
- If that's not available, it's OK to bring in the next Star as a rotation guy
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Dr. D's take on the above take:
As we speak (Oct. 21, 2014) the rumble is that all of baseball is increasingly annoyed with Zduriencik for ---> backing out of deals that would give away frontline ML-ready talent. This implies they won't be able to execute Justin's bullet #3.
I also am annoyed -- as it seems I always have been -- that the Mariners always focus 90% on what they're giving up, and 10% on what they're getting.
You can't blame the M's for trying to offer quantity over quality prospects, in place of Paxton, Taijuan, or DJ. That's what I'd do also - try to push a 5-for-1 deal while holding back my favorite three players. It's a legit way of doing business, done by every ML franchise.
Anyway, that is certainly why they are interested in Martinez: he costs money rather than D.J. Peterson.
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Zduriencik has also acknowledged the possibility of grabbing a Lester, Shields, or Scherzer if there is no offense available. Would that be okay? Wellllll ....
- In a vacuum, there's nothing wrong with gambling that young players will step forward further
- In context, the M's have a nasty habit of being 2nd or 3rd to the free agent table (notwithstanding Cano)
Wayyyy too easy to imagine the M's dickering over Jose Bautista, waiting for Victor Martinez, failing at all, then coming in far too late on the big-time pitching. "Oh, well, we like our young talent anyway."
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But supposing they were smart and decisive .... they could throw an eye-popping offer at Toronto, $1.50 on the dollar, holding back their Big Three prospects, and give them a week to decide. With the TV deal, awash in cash, they could do what Paul Allen does: get their best offer out there very early, and reel in the player who accepts it.
Of course, the national saberdweeb sites then spend the winter picking at the price given :- )
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Jon Lester is a local boy who racked up a whopping 6.1 WAR last season, and 4.8 WAR x the last 7 years running. He's LHP in Safeco. With the M's bullpen, and home stadium, it could be truly depressing for enemy lineups to visit Seattle.
Victor Martinez had 0.9 WAR just the year before last, in 2013. Fangraphs don't know from Critical Mass in the lineup or 19 shutouts; if you like their paradigm then Lester is actually a no-brainer over V-Mart.
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There is some hope for M's fans. Last winter, when it came to Robinson Cano, the M's showed fangs down to their chins.
BABVA,
Dr D