.
Rick shoutz,
rick82: Yesterday Almonte worked hard to get to the 3-2 count, and right on cue struck out. Interesting how well he hits the first and second pitch, but after that, has so much trouble hitting anything. You'd think a 3-2 pitch would be hittable, because no one would want to put him on base. But he can't hit it. In 16 full count at bats this year, Almonte has struck out in 9 of them, and has not drawn A SINGLE WALK. That to me is real strange. Anyone else here think that's strange?
Rick "Hawkeye" 82 groks the pattern that Almonte if only the pitcher can get him past Pitch #3 in the arctic safari, the Almonte stands to get clubbed like a baby seal.
He's right.
|
Count |
AB |
H |
BB |
K |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
Remark |
|
on 0-0 |
15 |
7 |
|
|
.467 |
.467 |
.733 |
|
|
on 1-0 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
.500 |
.500 |
1.250 |
|
|
on 0-1 |
6 |
2 |
|
|
.333 |
.333 |
.500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
On 2-2 |
18 |
0 |
|
14 (!) |
.000 |
.000 |
.000 |
blarrrrghhh |
|
On 2-1, even |
5 |
1 |
|
|
.200 |
.200 |
.400 |
|
|
On 1-2 |
10 |
0 |
|
6 |
.000 |
.000 |
.000 |
|
|
On 3-2 |
16 |
3 |
0 (!) |
9 (!) |
.188 |
.188 |
.188 |
|
On a 3-2 count, the American League last year hit about .215/.440/.350 (because of all the walks and strikeouts). On 3-2, there are more BB's than K's ... except for Abraham Almonte, for whom there are no walks.
On a 2-2 count, the AL last year hit about .185/.190/.290 ... Dr D didn't realize quite what a pitcher's count this is. Still, check out Almonte's line in this situation. Dr. D, at age 51, could quite literally produce the same 2-2 result that Almonte has produced. Well, okay, Cool Papa Bell or Steve22 could.
.
"Get Him Early In the Count" - a desperation tactic
Edgar famously talked about how he would approach his teammate Randy Johnson -- he laughed, "I would have to try to get him early in the count." What's he talking about?
Juan Pierre hit .300 against Clemens, I think ... he explains, "You never like to go to two strikes against Clemens ... the deeper you go in the count, you get into his arsenal more. He can throw the splitty down and away on you, he can come in with the slider and curve on your hands. It's safe to say you want to get him before he can get into all those pitches. Typically I've hit off the first two or three pitches he's thrown."
Pierre, by the way, has always been among the league leaders in fewest pitches seen per at-bat. Which is why Pierre was an OK hitter, defended himself OK, but just could get any BB going and so didn't have a sabermetrically good batting line.
.........
Generally speaking, the more pressure there is on a hitter to avoid deep counts, the more you are talking about an OVERMATCH of the hitter by the pitcher. The hitter is getting on when he "cheats" and guesses a pitch right, in the first 3 pitches.
When it's a fair-and-square fight on 3-2, and the hitter is being ravaged, he needs some time in Tacoma. That's all.
.....
Dustin Ackley, by the way, is hitting .400/.571/.400 on 3-2, with two walks and one strikeout.
• Smoak is 1-for-10 with a 5:1 EYE (five walks, 1 strikeout)
• Hart is 3-for-8 with a 3:1 EYE
• Saunders is 0-for-5 with a 2:1 EYE
• Zunino is 2-for-6 with an 0:2 EYE (single and double)
• Almonte is 3-for-16 with an 0:9 EYE (three singles)
Last 14 days, Almonte is hitting .196 with 0 walks and 21 strikeouts. I'm guessing that would have got Nick Franklin sent down. The Mariners are well aware that Almonte is one of the most abused players in the majors, but he has yet to see his first day off.
Meanwhile, Erasmo fanned 8 batters the other day and got another PUBLIC butt-chewing from McClendon.
The message being what? That you want to be real sure that you're pals with McClendon?
Good stuff Rick,
Dr D
Early in the count. Gets defensive later in the count. Makes you wonder if he's survived on smoke and mirrors only to have the pitchers observe it at this level and exploit it. Not an observation on my part, just a hypothesis that might fit what we see.
Articles / exchanges like this one are why SSI is, IMO, the best M's blog. As Doc says -- tomorrow's news today. Now that the rest of the league has figured out Almonte, I wonder when Lloyd is going to wake up to the bad news on his Lap Dog and then act on it. Almonte is killing the M's right now: terrible hitting, numerous fielding errors, and several base-running mistakes.
The scary numbers: if you don't let Almonte put the first ball in play, then he falls to an 12-74 hitter. Doing the quick in-my-head math reveals a post-1st pitch BA of .162! Somehow I don't think that escapes MLB scouts.
His speed isn't helping his BA, either. He's 1-24 on balls hit to IF's.
I wonder how many times he swings at the first pitch he sees?
If he keeps hitting like this...and keeps starting (or even staying in Seattle) I propose a new nickname: Tony Perez of the Big Red Machine was called Big Dog, we can start calling Almonte Lap Dog.
Interestingly, almost everybody wails on the 1st pitch, when they put it in play. Why wouldn't they? they get to pick their pitch or just stand still. Over his career Cano is .378 on Pitch #1; Hart is .389; Seager is .337; Saunders is .393: Smoak is a dismal .283.
Edit: OK, I will admit that the Lap Dog title is a bit, just a bit, premature. But if Almonte's performance continues like this for much longer AND he's still locked in to CF, each and every day....then it will be deserved.
The struggles of guys like Ackley and Almonte really make you appreciate what a rare and unique talent we had in prime Ichiro.