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My man Logan sez,

Seems something like Paxton/Sanchez/Diaz for Jeff Samardzija is in the cards. What say SSI?

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to which Dr. D sez,

This is much like being given a free vacation to your choice of (1) the Hawaiian Islands or (2) the hot spots of Spain, England, France and Italy.  It's a choice between two beautiful, beautiful things and yet you'll spend the rest of your life agonizing over the one you missed.

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Don't Do It

(1) Obviously, James Paxton could be better in 2014 than could Jeff Samardzija ... Obviously, to SSI readers, that is.  And if James Paxton is going to better than Jeff Samardzija, a better trade would be to flush your wallet down the toilet in exchange for being struck in the face with a Pike Place salmon.

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(2) Also, according to my dear friends at Fangraphs, when you trade any club-controls major leaguer for any fairly-paid superstar, you are gutting yourself like a fish.

Well, you know what Dr. D means.  If you are going to judge this trade by comparing WAR-for-WAR, then James Paxton need only become a crummy starting pitcher in order to make this trade a catastrophe.

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(3) And it's not like James Paxton is an injury risk, as young SP's go.  He's 25, 26 years old, and past the immature shoulder stage. He's lefty.  He throws hard.  His mechanics are vunder-barr.  Paxton IS going to contribute.

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(4) Most folks will protest by saying "SOME teams should do this.  The Seattle Mariners, however, have no right to trade Later for Now.  They shouldn't be trying to win."

If you believe that, then that answers your question:  It's Not The Right Time for the deal.

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(5) All of this presumes that you like your chances of re-signing Samardzija, early, for less than a CC Sabathia contract.  If not, fuhgeddaboudit.

I don't like my chances of re-signing David Price.  Nor do I like the things that would have to be traded with James Paxton to get him.  Too many negatives to that deal.

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(6) Grumpy's argument is very tough to beat:

I'd be really disappointed if they traded Pax to get Shark instead of losing a lower round pick to get Jimenez. Pax >>>>>some generic lower round pick.

Just so.  IF that is the simple choice.  Ubaldo is nowhere near Jeff Samardzija for me, but Ubaldo + KPax is much preferable to Samardzija alone.

Thing is, Samardzija is only $5M this year, so it's VERY possible that it's Sarmardzija PLUS CONTINUED SHOPPING vs Ubaldo and KPax.  They'd probably regard Ubaldo as The Big Move for the next few years.  And you don't know that Ubaldo will come here.  etc.

But yes.  Grumpy's position has legs on it.

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So:  per the sabertistas, you've got a pretty clear no-no here, providing you think that K-Pax is going to be average-mediocre.  Which we, at SSI, all think.

Per the scouts, you've got a very scary situation, in which Paxton does pull off a Michael Pineda a Brett Anderson, and if you knew that Paxton were going to be Brett Anderson you obviously wouldn't be able to deal him.

After Brett Anderson has one good year, the Cubs can't trade Jeff Samardzija for him.  The Rays can't even trade David Price for Brett Anderson, AFTER his first year.

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