1
I like Van Slyke's upside and potential for a longer term OF solution than Cruz. Save the comp draft pick and the Cruz money, and buy a pitcher for the rotation.
.
Mo' Dawg sez,
Oops! This was #2 (from MLBTR): The Dodgers still have an outfield surplus with Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, and Yasiel Puig in tow, but they don't appear to be in any hurry to break it up. Well, well...there is no mention of Scott Van Slyke there. He isn't playing 1B with A-Gone on the roster. I still would love to see us make a run at him. Especially if Cruz is going to be a three year deal. Figuring both to get 585 AB's, Zips would have Cruz at .259-.316-.469 with 29 doubles/27 homers. Van Slyke would be .249-.325-.420 with 29 doubles and 18 homers (Zips figures Van Slyke for 483 PA's, so I've adjusted). Van Slyke K's 25% of the time, Cruz 22%. Those 9 HR's (difference) certainly aren't worth a third year...if Van Slyke is available. BTW, Zips has Seager at .264-.328-.414 and Kendrys at .263-.319-.425. I don't know how accurate Zips are....But the comparison is interesting.
...
Dr. D sez, Let's tick the points off on our fingers.
...
0. I hereby accuse Mo' Dawg of liking this guy, only because he likes the 7-iron finish to the swing.
...
1. Scott Van Slyke is a player who possesses Dunn-, Thome-like physical power. You could slo-mo this two-hand bludgeon shot to get a feel. Remember, he's 6-and-a-half feet tall, and they admit to 250 lbs.
...
2. Despite this, Fangraphs says he is (nominally) a plus defensive outfielder, at +8 runs per 150. (Say WHAAaaaaa?!) BaseballHQ gives his speed score as 80, with 100 being average, with 58 being Nelson Cruz. (Neither Van Slyke nor anybody else, short of Jose Canseco, has Cruz' lack of instincts.)
...
3. Van Slyke last year, as a rookie, got 2.7 WAR (prorated). That makes him a very, very sound Fangraphs player as RBI men go.
...
4. Van Slyke's leg kick is (a) beyond ugly and (b) about as necessary as Percy Harvin on the Seattle Seahawks.
Let's see, what's "beyond ugly" ... the dictionary gives "repulsive in appearance." I'll ride the bus to that stop, yes.
...
5. Van Slyke has a journeyman background similar to that of Jack Cust -- he conquered AAA in 2010, slugged .600 there all of THREE (3) years ago and has been languishing due to a label of "too many holes in his swing." (Always challenge the scout with, "Which hole exactly?")
...
6. Van Slyke's Power Index in the first half last year was an un-possible 212. He's got a good fly ball rate and a smooth, natural pull tendency, like Mike Carp. In other words, LrKrBoi29, he could some day hit 51 homers.
Then, in the second half, his BB/K was an outstanding 0.63. This is (again) a Mike Carp type of adaptability and malleability.
If his swing reminds you of somebody, that would be Richie Sexson. Except Van Slyke isn't as gangly.
...
7. Shandler sums up by saying "a tantalizing end-game power speculation." That's Shandler-speak for "gives you one chance in five, to become the next Chris Davis."
...
Of all the points above, Dr. D is most fixated on #6. Van Slyke gives the first impression that, like Cust and Carp, he shouldn't have been mis-labeled as a guy with holes in his swing.
Dr. D stands to be corrected by any scout with more detailed intel. But, pending that fine-grain intel, then Scott Van Slyke is the kind of Russ Branyan flier that GM Detecto would indeed wager his career on. (In bulk orders, of course.)
.
Dr's R/X
Think Mike Carp, except right handed and SuperSized. Or you could think of him as an intersection of Carp, Richie Sexson and a silverback gorilla.
Zduriencik, when he brings in a Respected MLB(TM) Veteran, it ain't because he's in the mood to gamble. Right now Zduriencik is looking for assured RBI. (When he "discovered" the unproven Russ Branyan, that was because Zduriencik wasn't gambling. The two knew each other in Milwaukee.)
Here's the thing, though. If you're playing 9-to-make-5, that's precisely when gambling is in order. You've got LoMo, you've got Corey Hart alongside Justin Smoak, you've got Michael Saunders and Franklin Gutierrez, well ... the next guy in might just as well be a Jack Cust or Mike Carp. That's what Billy Beane does.
Like Mo', I'd rather see Zduriencik make a move on a Van Slyke type here, than a Cruz type. Considering the roster dynamics. Somebody in that crew is liable to go Russ Branyan for you. Remember him, Jack?
.....
The broad point here is: Dr. D isn't enthused about Nelson Cruz, either, although his calling-card Proven RBI (TM) are undersold by 98-lb. sabertistas who play too much Strat-O-Matic.
That said, SSI would much rather go with a cheap 9-to-make-5 RBI men, and spend money on a #3 starter. All day long. SSI likes Van Slyke better than Cruz, and in this specific case, it also likes [Van Slyke + LoMo + Hart As a Concept] better than [Cruz As a Concept].
Good stuff,
Dr D
Comments
2
Van Slyke reminds me both afield and at the plate of Jay Buhner. IF, with regular time (not necessarily 500 PAs, but >300) he could maintain a 18% K rate and 10% walk rate and hit a .800+ OPS, with the fielding ability he's got, he'd be a dandy piece of the pie. Branyan didn't have the ability to run down flies like VS - watch the mlb.com and youtube vids - he's really not bad - in the same rather galumphing way Jay went about it. Not quite Jay's arm, though, so I'd use him in LF if I had a say.
3
If I hit it to 4 feet, I probably missed the putt. Might have even three-jacked it.
But I basically love big guys with a two-handed "bludgeon finish," cats who don't have too much movement in the bat and a decent eye (Van Slyke waked 100 pts last year and has basically done that in 720 AAA PA's). Guys like that, Thome-types, look bad when they get fooled (Thome had 2548 career K's, after all), but they deliver the 410-ft punishment to pitcher mistakes. Is he Thome? Nope. But he's looking a whole lot like Thome-lite.
I still think we can get him.
Much appreciated.
moe
4
You know, Bat...I actually went to the old Buhner video before I typed the above post this morning, jus to compare the two. I was thinking there was much similarity, too.
Buhner's more open at address and picks his lead foot up less, but the biggest difference I noticed was how low Buhner held his hands. Van Slyke's are higher.
But in watching the Van slyke clip, you'll notice that he has a pretty still bat and a simple movement of his hands, nothing exaggerated, away from his chest to set up his cut.
I think his relative stillness (despite the step into the bucket) helps create his better than decent eye.
And I love the Thor's-hammer finish.
5
The hand position is a bit different, but the forearm-started bat whip from a very still bat hold is VERY similar. Scouts don't have Van Slyke as a full-time guy because of holes in the swing. Looks to me like the swing is simple enough to allow adjustments if he's got a good eye - and he definitely has that. And the very low platoon split matches the supposition that he can make adjustments. In the mix, I like it mucho.
6
Also like the idea of Vanskyke if you can pry him. Cruz would be a complete waste of money and a pick. Someone like Andres Torres could provide as much value as a platoon bat/defensive specialist and would cost barely anything.
7
"an intersection of (a RH) Carp, Richie Sexson and a silverback gorilla." - sounds like Bone to me!
-- and just by the way, I weigh considerably more than 98 lbs.
8
You think that, subconsciously, you're attracted to the controlled finish, implying precision to the point of contact?
Personally, I've always been fond of compact, "strength-y" swings like Sexson's and Napoli's. Maybe 'cause I use upper-body strength in baseball and (unfortunately) golf.
9
:: taps chin ::
Care to say more about that? Not that you hadn't said enough already. But that one really kind of grabs me.
10
Buhner took deeeeeep, deep counts and it seems like there's a fair dollop of that in Van Slyke, too. No?
11
Please tell me it ain't so. I want the guy from Back to the Future and Top Gun. Please tell us you look exactly like him.
You're going to ruin 51 years' worth of sleeping easily under the blanket of security I always presumed to be there.
.........
If you're saying that you don't buy into "proven RBI," I could live with that. Maybe.
12
Van Slyke has reportedly worked very hard at being a decent outfielder (I expect his Dad had something to do with it). Since the Ms have several LARGE humans coming up as OF (Blash, Wilson, Scammell, Simpson) it might be nice to have him around to help them (Although reportedly Wilson needs little help) learn the ropes at the 3-deck stadiums.
13
That these folks tend to be the "nice guys," the givers rather than the takers.
Manny Ramirez types, you put in all those hours to get better on D, and where does it really get you.
14
Watch Tiger hit the 3-wood "stinger" off the tee. Watch any good player punch a 5-iron into the wind.
Same motion as the guys we're talking about. It's a short, but accelerating, move.
It's a motion that stays "on" the ball. Van Slyke's homers were all to dead center (well. one was incrementally right of 2B) or to left. But 8 of his 22 line drives were to RF. He can "cover" the ball. I know we're talking about a relatively small sample, but in '13 16% of his fly balls got out of the park. His LD% was 17%, slightly below league average, but his FB% was 47%, well above. He hits the ball in the air to the pull field a lot. A bunch of them get out. BTW, Cruz's career LD rate is 17%, FB% is 43% and HR/FB is 16.6%. Guys like Sexson, Napoli and (probably) Van Slyke are "streaky." But they can carry an offense when on. I don't know if he's the safe bet Cruz is. But the wager is a lot less, and the potential payoff is just as great.
15
Actually, most fighter/attack pilots are on the small size because of cockpit limitations, and even sub sailors can't be real large without having a permanent divot in their foreheads. At 5'7", I am not that large, but of course, nuclear propulsion plants were designed around the perfect man - who was 5'3", about 130 lbs, and everybody called him "Admiral".
My C.O. on USS NIMITZ, a top fighter jock, was CAPT (later RADM) R.C. Williamson, who was about 5'5'', which is about Cruise's size. But then Chuck Norris ain't 5'10", either, since I've stood next to him when he visited NIMITZ during Desert Storm.
I'm from a military family and my brother-in-law and uncle, who were USMC test pilots (for the F/A-18 Hornet and F-8 Crusader, respectively) are/were also under 6'0". Sorry to dash illusions.
And, no, I don't believe in proven RBI, especially for a Biogenesis client, but I do believe in roster "fits" and the utility of good defense, as long as the guy can hit, too..
16
:- ) :daps:
17
And there's no word of any talks with the folks down I-5.
As we all know, the Mariner org hangs on every word out of the SSI Think Tank, so we can safely presume we know why the Cruz talks have stalled .....
18
He remains a Dodger. The chances of him becoming a Mariner are probably pretty low. Cruz's chances have probably dropped lately, too.....if we're buying a FA pitcher, anyway.
However, right now our only potential mashing RH bats are Hart and Zunino. I'm not going to be surprised if we trade for a bat and sign an arm.
Arm will come first.
Romero's going to get a much harder look in the next couple of weeks, however.