Football far more than baseball lives and dies on the draft. There are no international signings, there is no farm system. It's a draft em, chew em up, spit em out and draft another one league. The salary cap that actually is a salary cap prevents teams from building through free agency for anything more than a single season run. Windows are much more important. You cant just stock a farm system for prolonged success the way that Jack Z is trying to do. You have to draft star talent that performs TODAY and the success or failure of that is dictated far more by draft position than it is in baseball.
Tom Brady won three super bowls during his window. Manning won only a single super bowl in his window with Indy. What is truly amazing is that Brady got back to the super bowl two more times with teams that were essentially built AFTER the first championship window and they stayed in the playoffs the entire time. That is mind blowingly rare and a testament to just how special the New England organization is.
Manning is of course now back to another super bowl. But he cheated! In the rivalry sense he cheated. While Brady has been leading a new batch of players drafted from the playoffs Manning bolted to a team that had been drafting from outside of the playoffs since 2005. The Broncos were just coming into their window and were talented enough to make the playoffs in 2011 with Tim blinkin Tebow!
Tom Brady of course can't speak the word cheating due to the spygate scandal but that's what I take him to mean when he's referencing the "best offense in NFL history.". He's not calling Peyton the best. He's acknowledging it's Peyton and his new "friends".
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Tom Brady, after losing to Manning in the AFC Championship, looked relaxed and happy in the postgame. We remarked in the living room, wow, that looks like a guy who knew he couldn't win this game. There wasn't much pressure on him, because he was resigned to the outcome all week. Or so it says here.
That night, it was clear why. The 2013 Broncos, says Brady, "have probably the best offense in NFL history."
Bear in mind that:
- This was Brady-Manning XV, and they're both old, so it's legacy time
- Brady had won like 14 of the previous 14 games
- Brady has 5 Super Bowls to Manning's 1 ...
- ... so he can coast in from here, to a much greater legacy than Manning has
You gotta understand that Larry Bird did not praise the Lakers highly. Not while they were still playing, anyway. Can you imagine Bird saying, in 1984, wow. The Lakers are unbeatable. Or can you imagine LeBron James losing a series to Kevin Durant and saying, "It's his league now." Never happen.
For Tom Brady to offer that statement, was a lot like Roberto Duran saying "No Mas" ... if Duran had been ahead on rounds 8-2 at the time. If that happened, then something very, very weird occurred in that 11th round.
....
In top-flight chess, this happens. A world championship match gets under way, and they teeter back and forth for a bit, and then ... one player just quits. Maybe he's even ahead. He understands that it's just a matter of time.
In top-flight chess, there have also been some wonderful STYLISTIC duels that, basically, served as statements of how CHESS worked at the time. In 1927, J.R. Capablanca was the unbeatable "chess machine," the defensive/positional player who literally went years at a time without losing. He faced the swashbuckling Alexander Alekhine and when Alekhine won, it changed everybody's minds as to whether defense had "solved" chess.
I think that's part of why NFL Super Bowls influence the draft so much. Football evolves, and teams rightly use it as a window into the state-of-the-art. If the Seahawks win, will the defensive backs helium to the top of the draft?!
....
If Peyton Manning is THE BEST THERE HAS EVER BEEN, and the Seahawks' pass defense is also state-of-the-art, then --- > Super Bowl 48 will give us a lot of insight as to the way FOOTBALL works in the 21st century.
It's not just another game. It is offense, abstracted, against defense, abstracted.
Who knows more about football? Peyton Manning, after a lifetime of offensive film, or Pete Carroll, after a lifetime of defensive film?
....
One reason the Broncos could win: they've got the best passing offense ever?! Well ... Dr. D (who is, ahem, a legendary intermural flag-football QB in his own right) has always felt, intuitively, that football passing should "break" the game. Passing should be unstoppable.
Think about it. You've got one guy, standing here. You've got another guy, standing over there. They're playing keep-away. All the receiver really needs is like 18", in ANY direction, and a proper pass will get to him. How is that stoppable?
Speaking as a flag-football enthusiast, I believe that the only real reason a pass would ever fail is that ---- > the QB needed to throw the ball better.
That TD pass, off Kaepernick's front foot, was maybe the greatest sports play I ever saw. Earl Thomas actually touched the ball. Anquan Boldin just barely got up to it, but he got it. In one magnificent play, I suddenly understood why Jim Harbaugh traded Alex Smith.
In theory, that could happen every single play. In the year 3014, human beings will complete every pass for a TD...
Or not.
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One reason the Seahawks could win: Manning is a stationary target. The Seahawks can rush four, period. All day long.
If Manning is so good he's going to be able to to pick out WR #4, #5, for little 6-yarders, fine... he's going to need a lot of those kind of passes. It's not like those 6-yard check-offs are going to be routine, either, like they usually are for Brady and Manning against AFC defenses.
Kam Chancellor looked thrilled to be facing Manning. He should be. The Broncos, in principle, are tailor-made for the Seahawks. Maybe they're the best offense ever? So the Seahawks get credit for facing an irresistible force when, to them, it's only a challenging force.
Look, amigos, Drew Brees is not substantially worse than Peyton Manning. The Broncos threw for 5,400 yards, sure, but ... the Saints threw for 4,900, you know. The Saints were as far ahead of the #3 passing team (Detroit) as the Broncos were ahead of them ... and the Broncos play, ahem, in the AFC.
Not only did the Seahawks kerrrrr-USH Drew Brees' passing attack in the first game, but ... given all the time he needed to adjust, Drew Brees did not ATTEMPT to confront the Seahawk pass defense in the rematch.
He said "No Mas." Drew Brees' implicit statement about the Legion of Boom was, nobody can beat it. You've got to sidestep it.
But that, of course, contradicts the way Dr. D feels about the basic game of "Keep-a-Way."
Enjoy,
Jeff
Comments
Lets take a look at the Broncos schedule.
Baltimore - 12th ranked defense
New York Giants - 8th ranked defense
Oakland - 22nd ranked defense
Philadelphia - 29th ranked defense
Dallas - 32nd ranked defense
Jacksonville - 27th ranked defense (tied for 27th)
Indy - 20th ranked defense (loss)
Washington - 18th ranked defense
San Diego - 23rd ranked defense
Kansas City - 24th ranked defense
New England - 26th ranked defense (loss)
Kansas City - 24th ranked defense
Tennessee - 14th ranked defense
San Diego - 23rd ranked defense (loss)
Houston - 7th ranked defense
Oakland - 22nd ranked defense
Houston averaged out the year ranked 7th but had played higher than that earlier in the season. By the time of their week 16 match up with Denver they were missing key pieces and were clearly in the "Dear Lord just let this season end" mode.
Look at that list. Eleven out of their sixteen regular season games were against defenses ranked #20 or worse. His two playoff wins this year were rematches against the 23rd ranked defense and the 26th ranked defense respectively Football season is the epitome of small sample size. Doc your point that Brees is substantially the same as Manning is spot on. If you were to swap the Saints' one regular season match up with Seattle(1st ranked defense) and two meetings with Carolina(2nd ranked defense) for three games against a #20 or worse defense, he would have finished the season almost exactly where Manning is.
This is the equivalent of a hitter going all year and never facing a true #1 starter.
Manning hasn't seen anything as ferocious as the Seattle defense in a long time.
This is a great post. I knew the AFC was soft this year, but itemizing it out like this opens my eyes. Obviously Manning is an all time great - maybe the best of all time. But the stats are certainly partially a result of this strength of schedule. Peyton is a smart guy, he's not unaware of this. I just hope it's still a shock for him when he comes out throwing against the LOB :)
... what is your opinion as to the idea that Manning feasts on lesser D's, and has issues with tough opposition?
Several factors favor NFL pass defense over pass offense:
1. Advanced scouting. The Legion of Boom is known for studying tape, and knowing the pass tendencies of other teams as well as they do. Someone in the shoutbox brought this up earlier in the year, noting that Sherman studies football tape on nights and weekends instead of partying. Here is one of the many articles about it: http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2013/09/richard-sherman-thanks-prep... The article says that The Seahawks have a scout team that has the tendencies of the team that the 'Hawks are trying to beat.
2. Add to that the psychological aspect of the game. Sherman and other LOBers actively sell their position as if it is uncovered when it really is covered.
3. If the foreknowledge of routes is equal, then the defense is favored for the reason that the defense is already downfield, while the offense has to run to get downfield. This gives the defense extra time to watch the quarterback and see where he is going to throw to.
4. Footballs can only be thrown so fast. Hang time favors the defense, and there is always some hang time. Its not laser tag. Also, arm strength for a quarterback is less rare than the speed of an NFL corner. A star beer league quarterback may have all the mustard of a pro, but he's not playing against Richard Sherman.
5. The game is rigged against the offense. A pass offense has to make a dozen or so passes per game to be successful. A defense has to make only a few interceptions per game to be successful. Also, deflections count for something on defense, but they count for nothing on offense. If neither side catches the ball, defense wins.
Contrast the sophistication and study of the Legion of Boom against your average beer league college flag football stars and you can see why beer league might favor the offense while pro league might favor the defense With no advanced scouting, it is the seeing against the blind; The flag football offense knows what it is going to throw, while the defense is completely clueless. Also, flag football is usually played on part of a 50 yard field, which leads to a higher scoring game; Dr. D's legendary Hail Mary passes might look kind of short on a full size field.
Other than the Saints, which is certainly a decent comparable, and a solid notch on the Hawks side of the argument. But Denver's arsenal is on a whole different level compared to NOLA - eg passing DVOA of 60+ vs 35+ for NOLA (through 12/30 which is the last tabulation on FO that I can see). The top tier offensive teams were Den, SD, Philly, NO, NE...only one of which Hawks have played (and once in awful conditions).
That was six insights, each one of which could have been a front-pager.
The laser tag point resonates ... if the defender is at all quicker than the WR, for any reason (such as burst to the ball from his own angle) then the hang time gets you.
(This hadn't occurred to me because I don't play against guys like Richard Sherman; my beer-league WR's break to the ball as well as the DB's do, and the entire reaction by both guys is wayyyy slowed down compared to the pass velocity which is *more* comparable to NFL pass velocity.)
Wow. Quite a post.
Is the real wild card matchup IMO. I think it is unlikely Manning will light up the LOB - they've settled in the 20's score-wise in playoff competition (granted I think they've played a bit conservatively...like the Hawks have, for the same reasons). Whatever SD was able to do, we should be able to do as well or better. I'd pencil Denver in for 17-27 points (haven't figured out exactly where in that range I think they'll end up).
Denver D has played quite well though even through key injuries. The Harvin offense vs their defense is IMO what will most determine the result. It is funny, Harvin gets so much scorn and bad press for his inability to stay healthy, that it feels like that perception bleeds into folks' view of him when actually ON the field. He is viewed as, maybe will make a bit of an impact, not that important. Where in reality, if he is healthy he is one of the literally best offensive players in the league, and is almost SURE to make a sizeable impact on the outcome. It's like people mentally average out his total output over all the games, including the missed ones. Weird cognitive dissonance in the public (not one that Denver's coaches will share though I'm sure :)
GREAT insights regarding the strengths of defense vs. offense. To further illustrate your point #2, check out this post from Field Gull's Danny Kelly from last September: http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/9/20/4747480/richard-sherman-nfl-darell... It is chock FULL of GIFs highlighting Shemans' skill at the position. It is jaw dropping. Looking at those GIFs, you start to realize why nobody throws his way anymore. Yet he still leads the league in INTs.
Regarding your fourth point, I heard Tim Hasselbeck on the radio today and he said something that perked my ears. He was talking about Peyton's arm strength in his advancing age (38, lol). He said without any hesitation that Russell WIlson has a stronger arm at this point, and can simply make throws that Peyton cannot. If Peyton happens to lob a few, or catch a little too much air, I fully expect Sherman, Thomas, Maxwell, or Kam to camp under it.
Much was made at the start of this season about Peyton's arm strength being so much better than last year. What they didn't bother to mention was that yes, 75 is better than 50, but 75 still isn't 100. Have you looked at the way the ball comes out of his hand? I'm not saying I can throw a better spiral, because I can't and never could. But for all the offensive numbers he's put up this year he is not the same as he once was. There is a lot more wobble on his throws, which with the usual wind at MetLife Stadium will mean under, over, or where was that supposed to be going throws. If the Broncos are going into the wind, the ball isn't going deep. The Broncos have made a ton of yards, first downs, and touchdown on short passes that turned into longer gains because the opposition was playing zone defense, which Peyton has always been able to exploit, and yards after the catch due to poor positioning and/or poor tackling. Seattle doesn't have that problem. They play press-man coverage on the wide-outs AND the tight-end, tackle well, and have team speed across the board that Denver hasn't seen. Seattle played more zone than normal against SF so they wouldn't have to turn their backs on Kaepernick and have him take off down the field. Not going to have that problem with Manning. He's a statue. The bigger question than the secondary is the defensive line. Manning didn't need to wash his jersey this week, because the Patriots pass rush never even got into the same zip code. He had a clean pocket to survey the field for however long he needed. If they can do the same against Seattle then it's going to be a very long day. Denver will likely go no huddle so Seattle can't substitute along the defensive line like they are accustomed to doing. But if Seattle disrupts his timing by jamming the receivers at the line so the ball doesn't come out on rhythm, allowing the defensive line that extra half-second to make him move his feet and throw off balance, then Manning doesn't have the arm strength any more to throw it into tight coverage. He's the crafty veteran pitcher who has lost 6 or 8 MPH off his fastball - he can't just blow it by you up in the zone. That extra fraction of a second, combined with the length, wingspan and speed of Seattle's secondary means fewer completions and more interceptions. And incomplete passes means we can substitute like we want to. If the weather turns bad, that's even better for us. Bring on the cold and wind!
Having watched a few Manning games this year, I am always amazed to see those wobbly flying ducks just about always landing right on target. I'm not sure we can make too much of this factor. He clearly knows his limitations and is adjusting his throws accordingly. Usually from what I've seen, the wobbly ones are not into tight coverage, they are when he knows he has some leeway and just needs to get the ball out quickly. Ugly but effective.
That said - you are right about pressure being important. That said about that being said, Denver wiped the floor with the rest of the league in pass protection this year, with the least mobile QB in the league. 20 sacks in regular season, 0 so far in playoffs. (Meanwhile the Hawks were...dead last.) [http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol]
While playing ultimate frisbee in College, I realized there are two similar yet unique throws to be made. Either you need to throw through through a tight hole at a certain time, or your throw has to make it to a certain spot at a certain time. While football is different than Frisbee, the dynamic remains. I believe Peyton is great at making both throws and the wobbly ducks are those into looser coverage, through a tight passing lane.
What I'm worried about this game is Denver has four dynamic receivers to account for at all times, Julius Thomas, DeMaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker. Since we will likely be playing at least cover one if not cover two, whenever we aren't in nickel or dime one or two of these receivers will be covered by a linebacker. Who knows though, perhaps Pete Carroll will try and make Knowshon beat us.
Go Hawks!
Your question is exactly the critique that gets whispered behind his back and I think it's true. Even if he wins against the Seahawks I will still believe it's true. The super bowl is a single game, not a series. Anything can happen. If he had to play the top five defenses in a row I think he'd end the streak with a losing record.
One of the big keys to the game I will be watching for is the match up between our linebacking crew and the secondary receivers over the middle. Peyton lives by the dink and dunk pass to the drag routes over the middle. Seattle MUST control the middle of the field or face death from a thousand paper cuts. They have to force the routes outside. Make Manning throw twice the distance for the same yardage. Make him work that "old" arm. With longer throws comes more hang time and more opportunities for the LOB.