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Not Paxton or Walker. At least, that is what I was assuming based on all of the positive comments coming from Z and Paxton and Walker's being serious rotation candidates now.
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Q. Scott Baker?! Is he still alive?
A. Ron Shandler sez,
"Perennial elbow issues shelved him back in summer 2011; he finally returned, to start a few games down the stretch. When healthy, he can be counted on for fine CMD (that's walk rate - Jeff) and lots of fly balls.
"xERA history says an ERA around 4.00 is about right. If you feel like gambling, he makes an intriguing STASH (meaning, stow him deep on your roster IN CASE he goes on a run - Jeff) but beware the extreme risk.
"$4"
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Q. He used to be really good, right?
A. He used to be really good, wrong. For a while he used to cobble 3 WAR per season ... how you get credited with 3.9 WAR while getting blasted for 1.3 homers a game and running a 4.37 ERA, I'm not sure.
... This article is headed toward a major crash and burn, I know. Look, I cannot stand to watch Scott Baker pitch, any more than I could Joe Saunders. But objectively speaking he's a good #4 starter. He wins ugly.
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Q. What's so ugly?
A. I once asked this question of an auto mechanic, why he hated the Ford Tempo so much. He walked me around the car. "LOOK AT IT! Look at its bumpers! Look at its fenders! Look at it!"
Baker is the very definition of over-challenging, of a guy who uses maddeningly limp stuff to take on hitters like he was Justin Verlander. Here, even this 2008 video from when he used to be healthy. Flat 91 MPH fastballs combined with mushy 2-plane sliders, and he blows the other guys down.
He used to do this to the Mariners also. His arsenal is just stupid, but you leave town with two runs, six hits and a loss. I never got it.
Come on. If you're going to be a hackneyed, AAA fastball-slider pitcher, can't you put a little Stank on it? This guy violates all that is fair and just in the world.
;- ) We're riffing a little bit. More power to the kid. But still.
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Q. So, smart guy, how does he get 7-8 K's.
A. The fact is, he does have outstanding arm action on his slider. Really great. The slider functions as a changeup, exactly as Michael Pineda's did. Remember that? The shape to Pineda's pitch wasn't the point. It was the way he pulled the string.
Let me take that back. Did we say "exactly Michael Pineda" somewhere in there?
......
He's got excellent pitchability, and the guts of a burglar. He pounds the fastball up, he knows when to jam a guy, and when they start grinding their hands on the bat handle, he humps up and FIIIIRRRRES... a slider.
The HIGHEST walk rate of his career is 2.40. Think about that. He doesn't even have very good command. He just won't walk anybody.
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Q. He doesn't have good command? how can you say that?
A. Oh, if you ever watch him and Iwakuma or Felix, in back-to-back games, you'll get it. Scott Baker can throw to both sides of the plate. But he avoids deep counts by throwing the ball up, where they swing.
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Q. Other pitchers like that?
A. You remember Brian Holman, some of you older guys? Same deal-io.
There is a guy in the National League, named Ian Kennedy, who also pitches up in the zone and never walks guys. But Kennedy has good stuff, as you can see here, and uses curve/change rather than slider. That's a rather important difference.
I don't know of anybody currently pitching, who makes it work in Scott Baker fashion. Chris Bosio was kind of like that, stylistically. Kind of.
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Q. How is he, as a match for the M's?
A. I agree with SABRMatt that the park is a good match ... I mean, if Minnesota can hold his fly balls -- relatively; he gives up 1.2 homers career, mild gopheritis -- you'd think Safeco would.
But you remember how, last year, Felix and Iwakuma had reasonable defense behind them, and everybody else had tragic defense behind them? Scott Baker is most definitely "everybody else." If he does come here, somebody go streaking at Safeco, and when you're taken down, give them that SSI article about moving the OF's back.
As Bill James has pointed out, there are teams for whom Scott Baker would win 20 games. Such as the 1975 Reds. They had the glovework and the big offense. They needed meatballs with 2.2 BB rates on the mound. ... more seriously, it would have been fun to watch him with the Angels when they had Bourjos to go with Trout ... the LA Dodgers would be a great place for him to win 16 games.
... I know what Matty's saying; Baker doesn't walk anybody and if Safeco holds his fly balls, if he came out of the year with an 0.9 homer rate, then sure. You've pulled Ryan Dempster out of your ear for very little salary.
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Q. At least he's healthy now. He's had a long time to recover from TJ.
A. Except he depends on the elbow-rending two-plane slider.
He's only ever thrown 175 innings one time. He's not suddenly going to get healthy at 32.
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Q. How is he, relative to Matt Garza or Jeff Samardzija?
A. ...
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Q. How is he, relative to Jeremy Bonderman?
A. You got me there. If THAT's the plan, bring in Baker as a #6 or #7, then we're in bidness.
If he's a 2014 Bonderman, then he's a Bonderman dee-luxe. No doubts there. :: he stops short :: You know what? Jeremy Bonderman is also a right hand sinker-slider pitcher, no stuff to speak of, who overchallenges. Did you enjoy that? ... Baker is Bonderman with pitchability.
The UP scenario for Baker, in my lab, is 12-9, 4.02, with 7 strikeouts, 2 walks and 1.2 homers. And a group of Mariner outfielders who have very seldom included Corey Hart.
... sigh. Get a grip, Dr. D. Okayyyy, the UP scenario for Baker, in a fantasy world, is to approach a Ryan Dempster season. The two pitchers are not dissimilar. (ouch)
Gimme the two hotshots, one right and one left. Because you realize that with Scott Baker, you're pushing one of 'em out. They're not bringing in Joe Saunderses and Aaron Harangs because they're consenting to Let The Kids Pitch.
That's my opinion I could be wrong,
Dr D
Comments
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...Erasmo Ramirez is also a guy with an arow-straight, hittable fastball and a mind-bending second pitch (mind-bending because of the arm action, not the objective movement on the change). E-Ram is a little bit more crisp than Baker...but they're not all that dissimilar.
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That's the attraction.
I would rather we chase the Notre Dame kid, or the guy from "It's a Wonderful Life" but taking a cheap flier on a guy who ran WHIP in the 1.1's in 4 of the 5 seasons through before '12 is not a bad strategy. He seemed to have something last year in very limited innings, too.
I've always thought that ERAM eventually goes in a trade for a bat. I still expect us to make a play for Samardjiza or Bailey. I don't know if we can end up with them. But Baker as a #6 is better than Beavan, certainly.
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We can never expect to win with pitchers like this in the rotation. Guys like this are like Bondo to patch dents in the side of your old car, not shiny SPs to win you 90+ games. Last year Saunders was absolutely counted on for the rotation, but proved rather that he no longer belonged in the majors at all. Harang and Bondo got their shots when Maurer, ERam, Hultzen, and Walker were thought un-ready due to injury, saving years of team control, or whatever. Some might say we got what we paid for, but I think we got even less. Maybe you stash a guy like Baker in Tacoma or the 'pen for depth, but acquire more of a "sure thing" (Tanaka, Cliff Lee, Price, etc.) for the rotation. Starters 1-3 are your playoff rotation guys, and you develop 4-5 with Walker, Pax, ERam in preparation for them to take over higher spots when ready. The team needs to start acting like it intends to win, not going to the prom with clothes from Value Village.
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And ER is kind of an injury risk. If this is the Bonderman mo e of 2014, then ok.... If he's the replacement for Tanaka or Jiminez OTOH...
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I agree Scott Baker should not be our shot at a #3. But there is always a need for depth. If he wants an MLB contract and a guarantee of a rotation slot, then no. But if he, or any of the relievers I mentioned would take a minors deal and lend depth and experience (and we are talking about one smart pitcher here, to get the results he does with his stuff) then it would provide the Ms with a hedge on ER's health or KPaxx's effectiveness.
I still like the idea of a trade to get a solid #2-3 arm (Samardzija or Hamels, preferred, for me). But even with that, having a savvy #6-7 available to step in is always worthwhile. And, given the success of TJ repair, taking a couple of lottery tickets seems to me to be a way to do it. The guys who weren't *quite* back at the end of last season, like Baker and Aardsma, look like reasonable investments against the inevitable problems.
It appears that by signing Beimel, the Ms are going to do some of this - now get Aardsma, Baker, and possibly Hanrahan on minors deals and the depth will be there when August comes - for trade or for a push to the ALDS.
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I'd rather we work out a trade with SD. Tyson Ross would be my first choice, but if the M's insist on one of these kind of innings eater arms get Eric Stults who was actually healthy and pitched 200 innings in 2013 instead of Baker. If you want to take a chance try for Robbie Erlin or get really crazy with Burch Smith. Add Nick Vincent to the package as a somewhat established bullpen arm. We are due for another Padres trade and it was reported they had interest in Ackley.