After all those years of hearing how Felix would eventually get Yanked, if Cano instead became a Mariner?
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Reasons the M's Might NOT Close Escrow
I think that everybody on SSI, every single poster, is skeptical about ever seeing a Robinson Cano press conference here. Off site, it's worse, of course.
I'm no different.
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Reason #1 that the M's MIGHT Close Escrow
The Yankees appear to be absolutely resolved about not giving Robinson Cano a deal anywhere near $200 million.
Just for instance, they fought a bitter war with Derek Jeter about money, were totally prepared to lose him, twice. They are now treating Robinson Cano -- in their minds -- more fairly than they treated Jeter. And we both know that Robinson Cano is not Derek Jeter.
He is not comparable to Derek Jeter. In the long history of Yankee icons, Jeter would remain standing if you whittled the line down to six or eight. To cave in further to Cano would widdle all over that relationship that they have with Jeter.
We're not saying that it's unthinkable, exactly, that the Yankees would go over $200M to keep Cano. But you, as an M's fan, should be reasoning that they probably will not.
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Reason #2 that the M's Might Close Escrow
The New York State income tax is 6.85%. The New York City income tax, which is in addition to that, is 8.87%.
I don't know what Robinson Cano has to pay in tax, but he almost certainly has several lawyers working on his New York and other taxes. To be free of New York taxes, if you think that's a small consideration, well, you obviously are not mega-rich.
Neither am I. But I can imagine. ;- )
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Reason #3 that the M's Might Close Escrow
$200M is definitely a trophy figure in the game those people play.
The only thing I ever heard Jack Zduriencik reveal, about the Prince Fielder negotiations, was that Scott Boras guaranteed Jack that he was going to get Prince a contract that started with a 2.
Think about it. Is "Team Jay-Z" going to advertise its intent to get a contract starting with a 3 ... and then slink away with a grovelled hometown discount contract?
Looks to Dr. D like it is about ego now. A Yankee contract would require a serious swallowing of pride. I might believe that Albert Pujols, or Josh Hamilton, or Prince Fielder, would be willing to swallow their pride. I do not believe that Robinson Cano is liable to swallow his pride.
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Reason #4 that the M's Might Close Escrow
$200M is nothing to the M's. ...Well, you know.
They have already offered Josh Hamilton $25M per, for 4 years guaranteed and years 5-6 easily vested. They've already offered Prince Fielder $20M++, for 8 years, at some total value that forced Detroit to go to $214M. When you're talking $200-225M for Robinson Cano, eight or nine years, you're just reprising the Fielder and Hamilton territory.
The one thing here that I really don't get, is the sour grapes saying, "Well, even if the Mariners did somehow get him, they'd have to spend stupid money to do it." Oh. I thought we talking about buying Prince Fielder, minus 100 lbs., plus a set of wheels, plus a coupla-three WAR on him ...
Very few targets can be both a "pipe dream" AND a "nightmare." But I guess Zduriencik pulls it off neatly. Personally, I'm warming to the idea of "sedation."
Sometimes reading the local schtick is like reading the New York Times, rooting against the U.S. in its foreign wars ... :- )
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Reason #5 that the M's Might Close Escrow
Yes, Virginia, there is such a thing as a Keystone Free Agent, the one big splash that puts a franchise on the map, that is remembered in history as the point at which a franchise began to be taken seriously. If the Mariners landed Cano, the domino effects would go beyond the WAR that Cano personally contributed.
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Reason #6 that the M's Might Close Escrow
In New York, they're already making the noises that people make when they've lost. "Now Robby has to decide whether he wants to be a Yankee, or he just wants the money and losing. He has to choose his legacy. Hang on; I've got Sour Grape Whining X, Y, and Z I haven't even touched yet."
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Reason #7 that the M's Might Close Escrow
Sure, an agent might try to use 3rd parties as leverage. M's fans have a tendency to be a little naive about this, however. You'd have to be a pretty rube lawyer not to be able to battle that, and the Mariners are not known for fielding rube lawyers.
If Prince Fielder had never had any intention of coming here, I would expect that Chuck Armstrong would have been able to filter him out early. Fielder and Hamilton went to places that substantially outbid the Mariners, you do realize?
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What do you think, the M's shouldn't take their swings? There may arrive the free agent opportunity that other teams aren't in a position to price-enforce against.
Wouldn't surprise any of us if another team, say Texas, saw the same value situation and swooped. Nobody is saying that Cano is as good as a Mariner. :- )
But they're standing there with a $200M+ checkbook, and the market for Cano looks pretty soft. The fans are scoffing; the Playa's are not.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
JayZ has sold Cano on his becoming a cultural 'icon', with the kinds of lucrative endorsement deals that he can only really get if he plays in a major media market. Those 'outside baseball' deals are why Cano dumped Boras and went with JayZ. If all he was interested in was the biggest baseball contract, he would have stayed ith Boras.
Ichiro became a world icon in Seattle. It took a putting a great team around him to do so, but it is interesting that it began almost from the day ARod left town. Anyway, whatever designs JayZ might have, it doesn't mean the Yankees have to play along with them, or are even interested in doing so. They, not Cano, are the deciders here, and I am certain they feel they can win with or without Cano. Maybe the Dodgers will swoop in and play the LA card. But it would be nice to see Seattle get its swagger back. Captains of industry (Amazon, Microsoft, Starbucks), we are a locale of world icons. We were once at the top of the baseball world. We are the top of the football world. And we invented both a music form and a fashion in Grunge.
Well, Cano isn't getting a clothing line, a fragrance and a premium liquor endorsement deal playing in Seattle. That's the kind of thing JayZ has sold Cano on.
Nice to see this acknowledged somewhere on an M's blog. If we signed Cano it makes us a better team, shows the baseball world we are serious about competing and increases fan interest. M's wouldn't mind selling more tickets. No, Cano isn't going to sell $200M worth of tickets but he won't hurts sales. Even if he doesn't payback every single dollar of his contract with on field performance, that's ok. We put a cheap, young team together for a reason. For 2014 and beyond we are situated to build around a few highly paid, reliable superstars and remain flexible with lots of young, talented options.
The Mariners' Suits Have Made Their Bed, now they must proceed while lying in it. Earth to Howard: This whole thiing is bass ackwards. You may not hire a team president until January or February, but you are contemplating making a centerpiece move with the franchise. Thus the man you will hire, who has the unique combination of baseball contacts and savvy and uber-business skills, will have no voice as to the wisdom of such a move. It's immaterial what I think. This is a cart before the horse move from that persepective alone.
Even more so, you claimed to be SO prudent in not overspending in the past, but your team has become so devoid of superior talent and so bad that you contemplate such a move as this in order to overcome the problems YOU have created. There was no need for the team to ever sink so low for so long. But you were being WISE. You were being PRUDENT. You were being CAREFUL. Attendance was down because the team stank? Slash payroll. Bring in a GM who you can force to work against impossible payroll restrictions. Implement a full-orbed extreme youth movement, save a boatload of money while doing it.
Rather than "Nothing Ventured Nothing Gained," you followed a policy of "Nothing Ventured, Nothing Risked."
Now you must retrieve the situation, and you want to make a big splash. My goodness. You should have just practiced your diving all these years.
Not only that, but there is a pattern of behavior here as well. As Cameron said, the fear isn't that they spend $200 million on Cano. The fear is that they spend $200 million on Cano, he "eats all their cookies" for the next five years and the team is Felix, Cano and 23 civics.
A "penny-wise pound-foolish" approach has caught up to the Mariners to such a degree that outbidding the Yankees for Mr. Yankee (next to Jeter) seems the only way to "tilt the world" back in their favor. No one of moment wants to come here without a huge overpay, and many not even with that. How do all those relatively modest sums saved over the years look now?
My concern is that even signing Cano would not change the landscape to the degree envisaged. Would I like to have Cano at second base? Sure. Do I care if Howard spends $200+ million to get him? Only if it strangles the club over the long term, and frankly, that's Howard's choice (subject to committee approval). My point is his organization has proven itself to be inept. He has a GM on a short leash who so far has not proven to be an architect, his President has resigned effective sometime in the new year. He needs a senior architect. So you make your "move of the decade" BEFORE the new architect is on board, while the old one is a lame duck who over the years has proved incapable of steering a franchise into successful on the field? What, is the new guy going to be able to implement his vision when you've already laid the foundation between Felix and Cano?
Personally, I don't think the Cano thing happens, and I would hope some of these considerations dictate against it. I'd much rather have two $100 million dollar players than one $200 million guy, given how much of a talent upgrade the Mariners still require. The other consideration is that you already have good infield talent, what you don't have is outfield talent.
Hey, Cano is clearly an elite hitter. He'll remain so for at least a couple of years, then be good for a couple more. After that, you rolls the dice. If we're just doing Cano + one more (Morales/Butler) then we'll have to dance with the OF's we've got. We would be tough at 3-4-5, however.
If signing Beltran/Granderson or trading for Kemp (subsidized) allows us to add Morales/Butler + one other......then I think I like that move more. As is, Kemp at 6x$21.5M isn't much of a bargain over Cano (8x$25M), for six years anyway. Get $6M from the Dodgers and now you have $10M to spend somewhere else. Is a generally healthy Kemp+ better than Cano solo?
Depending on who the + is, yes, I think.
The Yankees have signed McCann and Ellsbury. Now, they may yet sign Cano as well, but clearly THEY prefer, and rightly so I think, to first land TWO guys for roughly the same money it would take to sign Cano. If Cano comes back at a more reasonable amount, so much the better. They now have the posture of, "Well, Robinson, those two guys took some of the cookies, so we have to find the right number here, but you know this place, this lineup, is the place for you."
The Mariners are intent on making a splash. I get it. They feel like the've gotta do it for credibility's sake, to convince the fans and potential FA's they really mean it this time. Gosh fellas, do you NOW realize what you've done the last decade, saving a buck but losing your credibility?
The only way you're going to restore your credibility is to win. Focus on building a winner. Winning is the best splash of all. If it takes a big name signing to do it, then doggone just do it. But don't do it to make a splash. Do it to build a winner. And before you do, make sure you have the right guy(s) at the helm so that your efforts aren't in vain.
McCann = $17M x 5 = 2.5 WAR
Ellsbury = $22M x 7 = 5 WAR (hopefully, if he doesn't get hurt, regress, etc)
Cano = $25M x 8 = 7 WAR (like clockwork)
$39M for (hopefully) 7.5 WAR or $25M for 7 (demonstrated) WAR. How is that getting 2 for 1?
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Or, player-pairs .... [Cano for 7 WAR, and a rookie for 1.5 or 2 WAR, minimum wage]. That's 8-9 WAR for Cano's salary, a Star and a Scrub.
Which two 4 WAR "civics" are you going to get for $12M apiece?
My fear is that Jack gets so fixated on Cano that he's left rummaging through the scrap heap in January (again) when the dude inks with the Yankees. If it happens again this off season, Jack needs to go. Too much of a pattern building here.
Nike or Pendleton could still step up :-)
And though the NW isn't much for liquor, I hear some of the Columbia Basin wineries are well respected! And then there's Full Sail and other craft breweries around.
As for fragrance, I'm not sure eau d'papermill would be very popular outside the Northwest (I'm originally from Camas). ;-)
Re: Camas-- Many of our child-rearing years were spent in Vancouver, Washington. Many was the time we took our kids to the Camas public pool, then topped it off with a trip to the burger joint at the top of the hill. Wish I could remember the name of that joint.
But as you suggest if Camas has but one association it is with the stench of that paper mill. In the eastern part of Vancouver, whenever we got an east wind it gave a new and quite contrary meaning to John Denver's lyric, "You fill up my senses..."
My Fair Lady.
you will beat me every time. For that matter, probably in generalities too. Doesn't necessarily make it less valid, it speaks as much to the abilities of the debaters as it does the issues.
But I was speaking specifically in a very, ummm..., GENERAL way! (Figure THAT ONE out!). By that I mean, generally to the point without reference to specific alternatives, but generally regarding the Mariners situation. They have an utter lack of MLB-ready impact OF talent, with an overall roster that doesn't measure up talent-wise with contending teams, and with three (count 'em, Ackley, Seager, Franklin) legit second-basemen already on the roster, I'd rather opt for two quasi impact players, one of them an outfielder, than one big impact player. Funny, I didn't feel the same way about Fielder when they were going after him.
Maybe I'd change my mind if (A) they actually signed the guy, and (B) they truly did not let it stop them from key moves in the future that impacted the payroll significantly. The Yankees just signed the two you mention, and nobody would be shocked if they turned around and STILL signed Cano. And addressed their pitching staff. But if the M's sign Cano, there is a legitimate question about whether that takes care of all the cookies.
I get that Stars 'n' Scrubs dictates that you go after the one uber-guy over the two players that are simply good. I'm just not sure that's the best approach for the M's right now. And what has really driven my numerous posts today is the sense that Howard Lincoln is standing behind Jack Zduriencik shouting, "We've GOT to make a SPLASH!" I'd rather focus on building a winner and let the "W's" build a splash.
drive-in on Everett Street is the one I think you're referring to - just a block or so from the high school I went to (since replaced as Camas has really grown) and just across the street from Crown Park, where the pool is.
As to the "fragrance"; when I was growing up, 3200 people worked at the mill or the research labs in a town of 6000, so it did have its points - but East Vancouver and Washougal got less of the benefits. Just like Detroit and Schenectady and many other company towns, people accepted the downside for the jobs that were available, but one of the environmental movement's godfathers, Denis Hayes of Earth Day, grew up there, too, and graduated from CHS in '62, a few years before me. He's done great things to draw attention to the trade-offs - which has made the area, and other industrial cities like Pittsburgh, Schenectedy, et al, much more pleasant to live in or visit.
In the McCann/Ellsbury scenario there is some built in fail-safe redundancy. Not so in a situation where you have Cano + rookie (hard to find the 2 WAR rookie, by the way).
Top Burger for dinner. We moved from Vancouver to Kent in 1995, just in time to enjoy the best seven-year stretch in Mariners' history.
Whether it is Cano or someone else, I've said for a long time that the Mariners need the baseball version of Reggie White going to Green Bay. A player acknowledged as one of the best in the game going to an unexpected place. At that time, the Packers hadn't been a winner for 25 years and were living on past glory. They had just hired Mike Holmgren and traded for Brett Favre. But when Reggie went to Green Bay the next year, it made people sit up and take notice. Look what's happened there since then. If it changes the perception of players about Seattle being a great place to play and makes us a more attractive destination, then that's worth something that you can't measure with WAR or any other statistical metric.
Having said all that, I still don't see Cano coming here. I think that as usual, Seattle is being used as the stalking horse so his agent can get more out of another team.