Interesting, the algebra analogy. I read an article on the 49ers a week or so ago and the author pointed to two things that have hampered Kapernick. Defenses responded to his 2013 breakout with two adjustments - they are focused on taking away his first read and putting a spy on him a lot more to suppress his running. They had some ugly stats regarding his completion percentage when he has to check to his second or third read.
Contrast that with Wilson. I laughed out loud in the Minnesota game when the play started to break down, he started to scramble, saw a small crack between two defenders, ad-libed a shovel pass to Lynch for the TD. The color commentator was stunned. "I just don't know how you stop Russel Wilson. He sees everything and is ballin' on every single play."
How can the shortest guy on the field have the best vision?
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I/O: Field Gulls points out that Russell Wilson's QB rating, last game, was 150+. And it's 120+ since the Cardinals.
CRUNCH: Earlier in the week, we suggested that the Seahawks' passing attack might overrule Pete Carroll's natural conservatism. I wasn't really talking about Lynch's odometer, though that could factor also. The point is, if your passing attack is at 120-150, it's going to force you to use it.
If you're down 14-21 to the Saints, and you know you can move the ball by throwing it, you're going to throw out what you like, and do what you need to...
.....
C.S. Lewis once spoke about the two schoolboys taking algebra. One memorizes his problems quickly and runs out to play ball. The other one takes the extra time to learn the processes.
Six months on, the lazy boy is suffering, whereas the boy who learned it "finds it easy, and positively joyful, to do the problems" that afflict the lazy boy.
Colin Kapernick, it seems to me, is a greedy athlete. Russell Wilson put in the time. Wilson now seems to find it easy, and positively joyful, to throw the ball to his third option.
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I/O: NFL playoff odds give the Seahawks a 99.9% chance (!) of making the playoffs, and an 85% (!!) chance of the #1 seed.
CRUNCH: It's not really that high. Maybe it would be that high if we were talking about Strat-O-Matic cards. But real teams can implode. They can have things start going against them. They can have injuries. Real teams are composed of human beings.
But still, man. 85 percent?!
It gives the Seahawks a 68% chance of playing in the NFC Championship, by which they must mean that the Seahawks are well over 2:1 favorites to win their first playoff game.
And then it gives them a 40% chance of playing in the Super Bowl, making the Seahawks heavy favorites against WHATEVER team is #2 in the NFC ... and these odds take into account the possibility of the NFC championship being played in the Superdome.
The Seahawks are given higher odds of winning the Super Bowl than Denver has. And this is all based on a Strat-O-Matic paradigm; it does not capture the fact that, as Pete Carroll claims, "Everything is coming together just right."
This here, right now, tonight, this is as sweet as sports gets. Get you some extra time to wallow in the Seahawks.
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I/O: Danny Kelly has a bunch of .gif's, explaining the bunch of options that you get out of the bunch WR formation, which is gonna get the Seahawks a bunch of yards.
CRUNCH: I never understood why this wasn't used more. In flag football, it's unstoppable.
All an NFL quarterback needs, any more, is a crack of daylight and the ball is on the receiver's numbers. Sometimes it's unstoppable even if the cornerback is touching the receiver as the ball is thrown. What is the corner supposed to do about all the traffic he has to wash through to even get near the WR?
As the game gets faster and faster, the inherent nature of this "traffic" syndrome will become more and more important. It is a fundamental part of the game's evolution. The bunch formation is not just fashionable, it says here, it is the way teams need to play nowadays.
As Kelly demonstrates, the Bunch formation is best-suited to WR's who can run after the catch. Would that we had any.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
He's a one check wreck.
You're absolutely right on the defensive strategy against him. Jam his primary target and spy him. The defenses that have the ability to execute that turn him into a mess-
That shovel pass to Lynch is a signature that's pretty much his. Yes, he can throw downfield with anybody. He can scramble better than anyone, he run better than almost anyone, but I don't remember ever seeing anyone with that kind of field vision by their 5th year in the league, let alone their second. Knowing what we know now, I'm not sure I'd pick Luck over Wilson today (given what we know now). That's no knock on Luck. I'd be just as happy to have him as my franchise too. But Wilson's on another planet these days. It's almost been a blessing that he's had to deal with the line problems. Now that the line is back and the weapons are there............
So far, that has been the case. Their strategy almost has to be to cut him loose with the read option. I mean really cut him loose. The defense can't spy him every play without opening some things up elsewhere. It risks injury to the QB but I don't think that they have much choice. I expect to see him running quite a bit more down the stretch.
If Denver gets to the SB, they have a pretty good run D. And you need at least 30 points on the board to beat them, even the LOB is not likely going to hold Manning under 27. Just too many weapons and too much versatility in the Manning playbook. So we'll need to score through the air.
Wilson is one of those actually inspiring type of guys that are very rare...to me, his attitude and preparation / work ethic are a great example for anyone in any walk of life. After the Tampa game when Wilson threw those killer picks in the red zone, Golden Tate had a quote to the effect of, "I truly have no idea how he does it, but he just shakes those things off and is back to a positive mindset right away." I mean, we are talking about throwing a pick at the goal line in the 4th quarter at home, while down a TD to the worst* team in the league (and after already doing it once earlier in the game). And he got right back after it to get the next one. Really impressive and admirable to me.
If so, we won't be able to get to it and approve it this time 'round. Sorry. Re-post, maybe? Of course, if you comment NOT as a guest, it will be automatically approved anyhow...
For some reason we had 100's and 100's of comments caught in the trap this morning. Not sure why. The SSI admins are workin' it.
Thanky kindly,
Dr D
On late night ESPN radio about 2 weeks ago, Bill Parcells gave an interesting interview on talent evaluation for the NFL. Parcells is a strong believer in building ideal prototype players for each position, then evaluating draft prospects against those prototypes. When the prospect varies from the ideal in a certain area (e.g., slow footspeed), then this must be compensated for (e.g., superior agility). Then the interviewer asked Parcells about Russell Wilson ....... Parcells was effusive in his praise for Wilson, several times calling him a very special player who broke all the rules about quarterback prototypes. Parcells stated that Wilson had instincts and intangible capabilities that were off the charts, that were not measured in the standard evaluation process.
I've always thought that at least some of Wilson's football ability comes from... baseball. That backhand flip to Marshawn for the TD? Second baseman charging a grounder and flipping to the SS to start a double play. His ability to throw on the run accurately without the usual square the shoulders and get your body in the correct position? Again, a second baseman going after a ground ball with a fast batter, making the throw from any weird kind of arm angle he can manage and still get it to where the first baseman can get a glove on it and stay on the bag. Wilson himself has said in interviews that the time he spent in a professional baseball locker room, with people of various ages, personalities and skill levels was instrumental in his development as a teammate and locker room leader.
Parcells is right (no surprise there). If you wrote up a list of the 25 things you absolutely wanted in a franchise QB, Wilson checks off 24 of the boxes. The only one he doesn't, of course, is height.
Link to article by Dave Wyman
http://mynorthwest.com/384/2397260/Dave-Wyman-The-Percy-Harvin-Effect