There are three versions of this article.
Regular, "premium" and "turbo-premium."
Obviously, this is an experiment.
The intent would be that the "regular" spectometer site would be free, and probably also copied here, so long as there is an SSI and it's OK, but the "preumium" and "turbo-premium" would require a subscription.
Anyway, here's a first draft of what it would be like.
Free version: http://spectometer.blogspot.com/2013/10/spectometer-plateau-leap-alert-jabari.html
Premium: http://specto-premium.blogspot.com/2013/10/spectometer-plateau-leap-alert-jabari.html
Turbo-premium: http://spectometer-turbo.blogspot.com/2013/10/spectometer-plateau-leap-alert-jabari.html
They are all free for now so you can see what I'm getting at.
***
Jabari Blash is fun. Never any doubt about that.
Of course, just saying “Jabari Blash” is fun.
And when you have a slugger named “Blash” who routinely deposits balls in the seats, then the “Blash Splash” tag is a natural. And that’s fun too.
But is Jabari Blash more than just fun to follow? Is he a legit prospect?
Prior to 2013, I have said “not really.” But now … “maybe.”
Absolutely, certainly … maybe!
First off, Blash is the epitome of the dreaded “raw, toolsy” prospect. I tend to be biased against the “raw, toolsy” prospects. Not per se but only the ones that quite evidently lack “plate skills.”
Alex Liddi was always a raw, toolsy prospect who lacked plate skills. Michael Saunders was raw and toolsy, but didn’t lack plate skills. Get the difference?
Can one succeed long-term in the majors without “plate skills”? Yes … but …
You have GOT to be a slugger. Moreover, you have got to be a “slugger who walks.”
Meaning: if you’re going to strike out a lot, then hit homers in about 4% of plate appearances and walk in about 10% of PAs. Otherwise, you’re in trouble.
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Premium sidebar drill-down on "sluggers who walk" such as Mark Reynolds on the "premium" site.
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So what about Blash?
First, a little background. He’s from St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, where baseball is not a huge sport, and was not an “out-playing-ball-every-day” kid. He’s clearly on the “raw” side of that equation.
Second, he’s a stud athlete and 6-foot-5, 225. Obviously, on the “toolsy” side as well.
He was drafted out of his V.I. high school in the 29th round by the White Sox, but chose to attend junior college at Miami-Dade (a top program). After a year there, the Rangers drafted him in the 9th round, but he turned down $250,000 to return. Then he was suspended from the team the following year, but the Mariners took him anyway in the 8th round.
Interestingly, Baseball America had him at No. 47 on this list of Floridians in the 2010 draft, with Manny Machado and Chris Sale at the top of it.
So he was already a bit old when he was sent to Pulaski, and he’s fought through injuries and inconsistency since then.
As a result, 2013 was his age-23 season, and he still hadn’t advanced past Low-A Clinton. It was put-up-or-shut-up time, and I was so discouraged by his .245/.355/.433 2012 season, that I dropped him out of the Spec66 and down to the “Watch List.”
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Premium sidebar drill-down on Blash's development arc leading up to 2013 on the premium site.
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But, ah … 2013.
He started in High-A High Desert, and that distorts his stats. So a 23-year-old with power going bonkers in the thin, windy air of Adelanto doesn’t necessarily prove much.
But a pretty tour it was, as he banged out 16 homers in just 80 games, kept that walk rate high, and kept the K% within reason (for a “slugger who walks” mind you) at 25.6%.
And, more importantly, he earned what he needed most: a promotion to AA Jackson. That’s where we’d see if this was a desert mirage or a real plateau-leap.
And it was only 29 games and 120 PAs, but …
Let’s look at those “slugger who walks” numbers at Jackson:
HR/PA = 7.5%
BB/PA = 16.7%
K/PA = 23.3%
Those, my friends, are remarkable numbers. Compare Chris Davis, whom, as you know, hit 53 deep balls this year:
HR/PA = 7.9%
BB/PA = 10.7%
K/PA = 29.6%
Or Giancarlo Stanton, the ultimate “slugger who walks” (admittedly, a down year):
HR/PA = 4.8%
BB/PA = 14.7%
K/PA = 27.8%
Now, you obviously can’t just project MLB numbers from AA. But Blash needed to show he could hit at AA to get on the map for real … and boy did he.
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Turbo-premium "stat pack" on the turbo-premium site only.
If the M's send him to Jackson for "more seasoning." Man, let's quit treating our rising stars.....or flashy rockets.....like they are meat on a hook and need more hanging time to "season." He's 24 with a skill set that we can use. Let's treat him like it. Put him in Tacoma, pencil his name in RF and keep an eye on him.
If he keeps up the Spectometer numbers until mid-season.....Call him up.
Tried to read the Austin Wilson article, and I saw two sentences comparing Austin to Megatron and a super genius. Then they turned off the blog and tried to charge me $15.00.
Spec, I badly want to hear about the next Mariners second round draft pick becoming self aware and waging war on mankind, but that is a lot of money. How about if you charged a dollar for an article or a series of articles, instead of subscription fees. That way, if you ever take a vacation and aren't up to publishing schtick that day, you don't have an angry readership wondering where the morning coffee article is.
I always wondered about that paradigm ... I wouldn't mind paying it myself, for (let's say) Bill James articles.
My main question is whether that would be convenient for the user. Is it just a question of a one-click PayPal button, per article? Do most people have an apparatus set up so that a PayPal click charges their checking account, or whatever?
If so, that would be like picking up a morning paper on the way to work, and that paradigm worked okay for the last century or two.
If Spec (or myself) puts a couple of hours into a really good read, I would think the reader wouldn't begrudge him a 99-cent charge for his work. But as you say, Mojo, the reader has to feel good about the arrangement.
This is America 2013 :- ) and we're all about the impulse buy at the counter. Personally I would rather buy a $1.49 package of cupcakes, WHEN I'm craving the cupcake, than pay $10 for the next 10 times I'll want a cupcake. But that's just me.
Very interesting suggestion, the per-article paradigm. Like, supposing we had 1,500 words on Braun and roid use and ethics and his forward projection and his connection to Zduriencik, would that have been worth 99c to fifty readers? Two hundred readers?
Hm.
A per-article paradigm might also get the author "popping tall" to create something worth 99c *that day.*
The per article approach creates a market for articles, and allows you to pick and choose what you want to read, rather than buying the whole bottle before you taste the wine. For example, I like baseball, but I like reading about baseball humor more than learning interesting things about baseball players; I want to read about Austin Wilson's transformation into Megatron, I don't want to look at one of Spectator's carefully crafted ISO tables with cells highlighted. I'll just take his word for it on that stuff.
There is probably someone else out there who is just the opposite, and most people who are in between.
If there is a per article approach to paying the authors, they also might learn interesting things about their readership, which they can use to tailor the material to the audience.
The author sees (e.g.) 37 purchases of an article about Safeco Field, and 142 purchases of a "David Letterman Top Ten" then the website would morph into something that made its readers happier.
Mojo, indulge me a very naive question? What is the basic process for a per-article checkout, do you have any idea? Can it be set up as a one-click kind of thing?
I don't know. But Amazon can do it. So can Apple. My wife will spend $3.00 to beat a hard level of Candy Crush without even switching screens, so it does happen.
I think it involves a secure account, and usually paypal.
That made me actually laugh out loud. As did the posts on lawyers being more prepared for Armageddon than the average WWE fan. I can just picture Joe Sixpack lazily trudging down to hang the lawyers, and an array of .375 H&H's emerging from the windows of the third floor.
I know somebody who needs to start a pay humor site, but it ain't me or Spec.
...............
Is there anybody who wants to coach me a little bit, through the setup of a satellite Wordpress premium site -- secondary to SSI -- maybe in return for a free backstage pass? Probably just take a coupla e-mails.
SSI will be about the same as it has always been, but I'd like to set up a sleek "turbo" site also. Expansion of services, as it were.
What was that movie where the goofy Vince Vaughn kept protesting, "But I'm the talent!?" to excuse the fact that he had the process skills of a 2nd-grader?
One model I've seen that seems to work goes like this:
Part of the article is viewable, but that part is also kinda able to stand alone. At the bottom of the article there's a "Read More" tab. You are allowed to click through to the rest of the article below the fold for free... say 5 times per month (resets every month). After those 5 clicks, you are prompted to subscribe if you want to "Read More" (in this particular example I think it was $2.99/month-by month or $21/year).
I never saw Baker's site after it went behind the wall, but I understand it was similar.
It wasn't supposed to be turned on yet. My mistake. Haven't made any decision about prices. $15 was just the default setting. And yes I would probably have metered access before the paywall would hit.
Just trying some things out to see what's possible.
It's off now.
But it's not available on the free version of Blogger or Wordpress, which means I'd have to invest something upfront, which I'm not ready to do yet.
So it's not off the table, but I can't do it during this dry-run period. And, again, the paywall was supposed to be off, and I wasn't planning on turning it on until I did a few of these testing-the-waters posts. Thanks for the feedback!
$15 isn't so bad. That's what... A pizza? Parking at a game?
would be to offer packages - the spec 66 with basic scouting comments@$10; the spec 66 w/ all data refined to the "three numbers"@$20. The daily farm system report series for $5/mo or $25 for the season. Farm system basic analysis pieces @$10/season, $20/season for the in-depth analysis included . Let consumers pick the TYPE of content as well as the depth. Start with the idea you want ~$50 for a season per user for full content (about what BP charges, but team-specific) and allow people to pick what they want or can afford (i.e., justify to the spouse). By classifying your content into categories, you should also be able to simplify repeat access as well, rather than charging by article and having to track access for each user for each article, which is why the service wants extra (I, for one, like to refer back to articles during the season, and would HATE having to pay per access).
I'll chime in on the price point issue. One problem with a $0.99/$1.00 price is, appealing as it looks to everyone (including the author!) the main roadblock is the per-transaction processing fees, a significant (in terms of
You go to 7-11 and they have that little warning, No debit cards under $5. Does PayPal really ding a $1 transaction for 35c? Yowch.
Thanks Jonezie, and ... wow, novel #5 eh? Mind my asking if you've done some decent sales on the first four?
With the old Detect-O-Vision we simply went 1 month, 3 months, or a year ... never even occurred to me that you might classify "green content" vs "blue content" vs "per article" and whatnot. As I recall, there were about 200, 300 premium subscribers back then. This being Spec, we should multiply by 3 or 4 ... :- )
Absolutely right on the archives. Once you had toked the dealer for a Jabari Blash article, you wouldn't want to be frozen out of it three months later.
The only thing I've published is a novella I wrote in my brother's series, the Spineward Sectors. But there's a method to my madness ;) I'm going to launch four novels (~500,000 words) and about that much more content in novellas, short stories and such simultaneously so I can take advantage of whatever momentum I manage to build up on the front end. Plus, the marketplace is really tough on first offerings; I figure having all four books of the series ready to go will encourage as much business as I'm liable to get.
Also, I round on content -- I'm actually penning, literally speaking, my third and fourth novels right now, but I've already written like seven novellas which are about a third of a book each. It gets really agonizing having to wait on...well, on myself to finish before I get some feedback, hahaha.
And yeah, last I checked on PayPal they didn't have a micro-friendly option and the per-transaction was around that price point, but it's been a year or two since I perused their fee structure. Amazon.com, the biggest indie e-publisher, charges almost exactly $0.35 to publish a $0.99 novel/novella, and most of their competitors are in the same ballpark. I assume it's just an industry-wide standard number for debit/credit transactions.