By both. I thought I commented on that one, but maybe never sent.
Barbosa's SB per 600 PA this year were 92.68. His BB were too, 19 of each in 123 PA. Can he sustain that? The BB about make sense with his size, though the only pic I've found in the box shows him standing up straight, bat straight up, elbows in front of him. Found a couple videos now and I'd just add that his knees are bent about 140 degrees, closer to straight up than bent 90 and not very spread apart. That was all college video. I half expected a Rickey type crouch after seeing the walk totals. This one is entirely a bunt single with a runner on, advancing and holding at 2nd on a single, then scoring from 2nd;
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MgNut75YGNA&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DMgNu...
He tore up the playoffs too, going 4-4 with a SB and 3 runs in the first game and hitting .385 the rest of the way to the title. Overall postseason .529/.579/.647, 4 G, 9-for-17, 1 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SB. Source includes top playoff performers from 14 circuits;
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130918&content_id=60971036&vk...
Thanks for reminding me there's better things to look at than Witherspoon. I like the look, but speed has always been my favorite tool. That often keeps me interested in a Witherspoon type later than I probably should though.
Q. Is a Willie Wilson type an impact player, or just sort of a joke -- 80 SB's but no real value?
A. Did you know that Willie Wilson used to get 6-7 WAR per season? I didn't.
Bill James, a Royals fan, tells a tremendous story about how Wilson was ruined by a hitting coach, precisely in the 1983 season, suddenly and permanently ruined by a simple change in hitting approach. Barbosa takes the approach used by the pre-1983 Wilson.
Yes, a superfast player can be an MVP candidate with 2 homers. Denard Span is not the ceiling here.
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Q. The template seems obvious enough. Why wasn't Barbosa drafted?
A. As Spec pointed out, you've got a 157-lb. player coming from an area that --- > scouts do not take seriously. The label is quickly and thunderously applied to the forehead. "Nice little college player."
Hey, let's suppose you knew that Barbosa could hit .290 in the bigs. That would still leave him as --- > a nice 4th outfielder for a real major league team, right? ...... ::ulp::
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Q. Why did the Mariners grab him?
A. As Spec also pointed out, Tom McNamara is only too glad to help himself to these players. By "these players" we mean players with labels, players from scorned areas, players with "turnoffs" to them. Taijuan and Nick Franklin, among many others, had "turnoffs" attached. You hate to spend a 1st-rounder on somebody whose problems bug you. You don't go home giddy that night.
He shovels these players into his ditty bag with two hands. If the draft were held AFTER Barbosa's performance in pro baseball, you can be sure that he'd be drafted, and at a respectable hour. If anybody had dreamed that leeeetle Aaron Barbosa could post a .455 OBP in the Appalachian League, right out of the gate, wooden bats and all, he'd have gone in the first 10 rounds.
A lot of those college little guys just drag the metal bats through the zone, make contact and run ... Barbosa has already made his statement about that situation.
.............
After Barbosa's performance in the Cape Cod, and in the Appalachian League, this is already a huge win for McNamara. Whatever happens next.
This is EXACTLY the kind of non-drafted player that SSI would grab, in piles, if it had the 31st MLB team. A player whose template made him such a high-percentage bet, a player whose obvious limitation (size), and what he can't do, unduly deflected pro scouts from what he can do.
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Q. Does this make SSI feel any better about the city they watch baseball in?
A. For all of Howard Lincoln's droll-ery, there is value (for the discerning SSI reader) in a lot of what he said the other day.
The fact is, Oakland is winning with less money than the Mariners spend - quite a bit less. Billy Beane was asked on an Arsenal podcast the other day, "Do you ever get tempted to go someplace where you had money?"
His response was interesting. He said that he really doesn't feel bad about not being able to bring in big names. He said that what he does wish, is that he could hold on to his own players -- he's got to systematically trade off his home-grown stars, and trade them early, when he can get value back.
He said, if he didn't have to do that, there's no telling how good the A's would be.
...........
The Mariners are able and willing to keep their own players; you could say that, financially, the Mariners are where Billy Beane dreams of being.
Lincoln wants to keep Zduriencik because Zduriencik does legimately shine at --- > bringing talent into the organization. After you get over the frustration about Lincoln's and Armstrong's priorities, what's left?
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Q. Leaving the SSI reader where, on Barbosa?
A. Leaving the SSI reader --- > keeping tabs on Barbosa's K% and SB totals, as he effortlessly heliums through each level.
Spec will be only too glad to keep us posted, we're guessing. :- )
::golfclap::,
Dr D
Comments
Or not . . .
Strong in 2001 at age 22: .326/.436/.383 with 13.9% K rate and 82 steals.
Right on the Barbosa template there.
The M's gave him all of 26 PAs in the show, but it appears that the Cubs, Braves, Red Sox and Yankees all gave him a trial at AAA, but none of them promoted him.
It does appear that his K% went up in those mid-20s years, possibly because he was pressing to show some ISO in order get another shot. He also was suspended for PEDs during that time, probably for the same reasons.
So "speed + plate skills" doesn't necessarily get you there, though Strong obviously didn't help himself with the suspension. He also might have been given an earlier shot with a team that didn't have Ichiro, and things might have worked out differently.
But, as you say, "or not ..."
Just an interesting note: Pedroia only struck out 47 times in 915 PAs at Arizona State = 5.1% !!
Also boatloads more doubles and more HR than Barbosa is likely to ever see (.152 career ISO), so he's not really a comp other than low-K and both playing in Boston.
There's not really a guy with the low-K + high-BB + speed + no power combo right now. Reyes is closest, but he has quite a bit more power (.147 career ISO and a given for 40 or more doubles/triples). Scutaro (.111 career ISO) has no speed. Ichiro doesn't draw walks.
Historically, Len Dykstra is the best example I've found so far (9.5% career K rate), but he hit enough doubles to reach .134 careeer ISO and had some occasional HR pop. Willie Wilson didn't really have a high walk rate.
So maybe just "Scutaro with speed" is the upside target for Barbosa until we find something better.
2009 vintage Jacoby Ellsbury: 10.7 K%, 7.1 BB%, .114 ISO, 70 steals for .301/.355/.415 and 2.7 WAR per b-ref.
Unless a guy like this plays CF, I think some organizations may just look right past them as they don't whack it over the fence.
But Brett Butler comes to mind as this type of guy. Came out of college unheralded (23rd round), was 22 when he hit Rookie ball. But in 781 A-Ball PA's, he was .327-.469-.450 with 158 BB's and 86 K's and 4 HR's. In 754 AAA PA's, he was .342-.453-.427 with 125 BB's and 82 K's. 4 HR's. butler was a heck of a MLB player, of course. He K'ed in about 11% of his MLB AB's. Had 558 MLB SB's.
Lonnie Smith hit more homers in the minors and didn't walk quite enough AND K'ed more...so he doesn't fit the template.
Maybe a young Rod Carew....although his MiLB #'s are so incomplete it is hard to know. Terry Puhl developed some power in the Majors, but had none in the minors (it took him 3 seasons to hit a HR). He K'ed more and walked less than the template, too. Not a great fit.
But Lance Johnson is a nice fit. He was a small guy: 5'10/160. He struck out about 8% of the time in A ball, with 2 homers, 310 triples and 33 SB's in 566 PA's. He walked 58 times.
In the majors, with the Chi-Sox, he was a decent player with almost no power (excepting two seasons).He K'ed in just over 7% of his MLB AB's.
Played CF, which helps. Another guy who fits this template well is Juan Pierre, still going strong. He doesn't walk quite enough, though.
But he is certainly an asset that teams have liked. He hit one HR in 1300+ MiLB AB's. Stole bases, too. Give Pierre an eye, to go with his contact skills and speed and he would play pretty well in LF, too. He's had 3 seasons above 3.0 WAR.
If you don't rule guys like this out.....they can find ways to help.
If Barbosa = Butler/Pierre/Johnson....or any one of them, he's an MLB asset.
Or go way back and look at Richie Ashburn. A really good template.....well, except for the speed thing. But contact and eye and lack of K's did fine by him....HoF fine.