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Who Is Curtis Granderson? How do you sift through these piles of variables and pick out the right ones?
I mean, everybody loves him, right? Not Ron Shandler. Before 2013 -- that is, when Granderson was a hot property -- Shandler issued a red flag on Granderson.
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"Another 40 homers, but he's at a crossroads now. Consistent contact% erosion has put him in hacker territory.
2011 BABIP looks like an outlier, and even a .250 AVG won't come easy.
Power is elite, but friendly park padded his HR totals.
Stolen bases are more a product of green light than skill. Don't overpay."
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In this specific case, I think that Shandler has put his finger on the two key things here: 1) Granderson has elite power (175-198 PX!!) and (2) he has morphed into a hitter who spends his season stalking home runs, at major detriment to his batting average and OBP.
The Power Index (PX) for Granderson is absurdly high and should not be minimized. When you are talking 180, 190 PX, that is higher than any major league player other than Giancarlo Stanton (at 220). Granderson's PX has been higher than Josh Hamilton, higher than Adam Dunn, higher than anybody other than Stanton.
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Home Park Effect
The average MLB home run travels 393 feet. Granderson's, the last three years, have traveled 402, 383, and 389 feet ... that's not fly ball distance; that's the 100 or so actual home runs he's hit. Those 390 feet came on LOTS AND LOTS of fly balls.
Here are his last three seasons' worth of home runs, with Safeco overlaid, courtesy of ESPN's home run tracker. The 2013 season:
The 2012 season:
The 2011 season:
Don't get caught up in the Safeco overlay. The point is that Granderson:
The fact is, Granderson has learned how to get his pitch, plant the back leg, and lift the ball to right field. He is very good at that ... better, pound-for-pound, than any other major league player.
An extreme Kyle Seager.
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Batspeed
The reason we didn't like Swisher as an age 32-38 player -- and he did, in fact, fall off in his age-32 season -- was that we saw a slow bat launch on video.
If you actually watch Curtis Granderson, his bat still looks very quick. Sure, if it's lefty-on-lefty, he uses a slow KBIZLT push like this one. That's part of why he can hit LHP's now. He doesn't commit out in front.
Most of the time, he waits on the pitch, sees it, and then UNSNAPS a fast bat like this one.
And as you can see, he's got Seager's ability to keep the bat on a level pitch-plane, while also getting under the ball.
No concerns on this front. And, of course, Granderson doesn't have Nick Swisher's "old player skills" body -- Granderson is a low body-fat player with fast-twitch muscles, good footspeed, etc.
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Granderson's plate discipline is going south, but it says here that is because he's getting enamored with HR's pulled into the RF seats. That's a lot different than a guy who is having to cheat to catch up to the pitch.
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Center Field
As SSI pointed out, the Mariner outfielders were pathetic in 2013 for two reasons:
Meanwhile, Felix and Iwakuma were doing very well on batted balls in play.
Gimme Taijuan and K-Pax in the 3-4 slots, and let Granderson play deep, and sure. Granderson will be a legit CF for a few more years.
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Dr's Prognosis
I'd be reasonably confident in projecting Granderson for .240/.320/.500-ish, with 30-40 homers, the next few years. The things that would make him exciting:
So although I'd rather have a Straw That Stirs -- Giancarlo Stanton, or even Shin-Soo Choo's .400 OBP in the three slot -- Curtis Granderson would also be an impact add in SSI's book.
A 115 OPS+ center fielder would NOT turn the [2014 Mariners Playoff Odds] evaluation on its ear. But Pair him with another add ... say, Granderson AND Choo or Cliff Lee or somesuch ... along with Taijuan and K-Pax, and you're really got something.
BABVA,
Dr D
As I said earlier...it's a very close thing for me. If it's a 3X15-17M, it's a much better thing. At 36...I'm worried.
But I'm playing him in a corner OF position. We're signing him for his bat. Almonte or Saunders can play center.
Loved the suspenseful ride, Doc :) I would love such a grand add!
Which of the other nine teams who have a protected pick may seem more attractive to CG, $ being equal in this case? ChC, ChW, and the Mets as competition? Boston and NYY will be in the mix, I'm sure.
The M's would have to outbid several of the richest orgs in MLB, I think.
Are you thinking Granderson/Morales (or comparable DH] as 3/4 in the Granderson Lee scenario? I think a lot of us figure is probably Morales and probably should be though I've heard a few other preferences and thought I'd check for clarity.
You made me like Granderson, who I previously wasn't considering, a lot better than I did yesterday. Love him as the 2nd best bat or him and Pence who may be considered lesser. Pence/Granderson/Beltran/Choo? Give us 2 and let's do this.
And if MLB Trade Rumors is anywhere close on its market value estimate, such an offer would be no problem at all for the M's.
Give me Cliff Lee :- ) in that first scenario and all of a sudden my rotation is a true juggernaut. A 100 OPS+ for the offense and such teams do indeed win 100 games.
Generally you need your ERA+ and OPS+ to add up to 210 to contend; a Felix-Lee-Iwakuma-Paxton-Taijuan rotation and I am *planning* on a 120-type ERA+. LOL.
Check out the 2002 Atlanta Braves, who had a 93 offense (!) and won 101 games. So, ya, Cliff Lee and Curtis Granderson and I'm buying my 20-game ticket package...
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Granderson and Choo being another tasty scenario. That would not rule out Kendrys Morales, either, to hit 3-4-5-6 with Seager.
Always enjoy your posts Wish -
So what you are saying is, Granderson projects to a better fielding, non-base-clogging, 10x as expensive...Raul?? >:^)
I kid, I kid. Would be a great signing on the field and from a marketing standpoint. The guy is a name brand star way beyond Pence and Choo, someone you could get fans legitimately excited over.
Sooo...can't wait to hear ex post facto about ChuckStrong's lowball offer after someone else signs him!
Hmm. I like that suggestion also.
With that rotation you probably could get by with two OFers and just put another guy in the IF (Taylor?) solving the Org weakness in the OF, LOL.
Curtis has had a season much like Morse's, injuries (including a broken finger) have depressed his value. Although Pence has had a plus season, his numbers have been seriously depressed by AT&T Park. I think Hunter is going to feel like Adrian Beltre did when he left Safeco - time to go to a hitter's park and jack those numbers up again. I can't see him wanting to come to Seattle and dealing with cool breezes and marine night air for another 5-6 seasons. Sure the fences came in, but...the skepticism will be there, and warmer climates will be calling.
If the Mariners have been targeting Granderson, I think it's pretty enlightened on their part, seeing what Ibanez was able to accomplish this season. It's a good blueprint for Curtis to follow.
If Pike or comparable are the best pitcher sent out. Maybe Maurer? Lee is making too much for me to rationalize Walker, Paxton or Hultzen at all, Erasmo or Maurer if there's much else without a ton of salary relief. Noesi and Beaven, ha ha. Depends on the package anyway.
Very curious what his reaction would be this time. He does have a no trade clause covering 20 most likely teams to trade and I'd imagine Seattle wasn't left off. The 9 teams that wouldn't have to negotiate are probably all low revenue.
Choo is my least favorite among the 4 after looking over everything. Playoff experience and character are pretty good in the whole group, trying to look at everything. I think Granderson and Pence would be my first choice but any pair would be excellent anyway.
Pence is impossible now. We could trade for him in a year, but that's not very helpful.
I wonder if Philly would have interest in Ackley.
Ackley+ sweetners for Lee
Then we sign Granderson and Beltran?
Might mean no QO for Kendrys but I'd be ok with that.
For Morales has to be decided first. I think they have to offer it if there's a decent chance they'll wish they had. Maybe not and maybe they're secure enough with conversations they've had that he's determined to return.
Phillies needs seem to mostly be in stashable pitchers, outfield and 3b. 90 ERA+ and 90 OPS+ this year says their needs are across the board though. Ackley could be desirable to them. But with Halladays injury they only used 6 starters all season. I think their biggest need is pitching and right now Lee's the Ace. Tough get. I doubt they're shopping him. Halladay was pulled 4 days ago with "fatigue" topping out at 83mph. Lee might have to go in the Stanton category. If you seriously want to overpay. ..