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... he's got to get to those interesting posts by Mo' Dawg and Wishiker. Many thanks gennlemen.
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Gordon takes the other side on the Maurer, RP question in this interesting article. We'll try to mosh off his insights, which depends on our ability to understand his insights correctly. :- )
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GORDON SEZ (we think): Applying Hochevar's storyline to Brandon Maurer is dubious. Hochevar downloaded a ton of information over the course of his 5+ years in the bigs, and in the bullpen he was finally able to laser-focus this information into something coherent. Maurer does not have this download to laser-focus in the first place.
DR. D GROKS: I hadn't thought of that.
This logic would hold if, say, Luke Hochevar spent 5 years learning not to throw his cutter out-and-over to lefties, and now in the bullpen (throwing only fastball and cutter) he gets the simplified tempo to execute that idea.
I'd say that Maurer might well go to the 'pen, throw fastball-yakker with the occasional cutter ... and still throw even those two pitches brainlessly. It's a good point.
.........
That said, I'm confident that it's easier to learn how to read a putt, than it is to learn how to read a putt, feather a pitch, and fade a 3-iron all at the same time. Rookies come up from the PCL and look good in the 'pen right off the bat. Generally speaking, if Maurer is throwing only a fastball, we might expect him to figure out the right locations on that one pitch more quickly.
...........
Hm. The Big Picture on Hochevar is that he'll probably never throw his offspeed stuff with enough consistency. It's too complex a game for him to handle. Would agree with Gordon that it's too soon to conclude that about Maurer...
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GORDON SEZ: Maurer threw 92 MPH two years ago. He doesn't have a lot of experience, figuring out what to do with a 98 MPH fastball.
Dr. D GROKS: Maurer is impressed by his own stuff, and seems amazed that anybody can hit it. Felix was like this. It took about two.five years for Felix to really buy in to the idea of Danger. Your mileage may vary.
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GORDON SEZ: Chris Tillman had a varied, power righty repertoire and needed four auditions. Now he's an All-Star.
Dr. D GROKS: There are 1,000 examples of Maurer, good and bad, but we've got to stipulate this point too. 3-for-3 amigo. :- ) It's axiomatic that a talented young pitcher may need three, four, or more Yo-Yo bounces before he gets it.
It is a cardinal sin to give up on any guy like Tillman because he didn't take off like a bat out of hades, his first ten starts. There are a few Mike Hamptons and David Ortizes in the M's history, as there are in any team's history. As we recall, some people gave up on Johan Santana. And on a bunch of guys.
Chris Tillman is a pretty inspired example. A picture (pitcher?) is worth a thousand words. We could also use the Brett Tomko picture, or the Salomon Torres example, or any example. Everybody at SSI realizes that Maurer has some UP scenarios and DOWN scenarios. But Tillman? Great call.
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GORDON SEZ: Once the M's put a guy in the bullpen, he tends to stay there. Beware the Tom Wilhelmsen gulag.
Dr. D GROKS: My guesstimate is that Brandon Maurer is going to need 300-600 innings -- or, say, two more years -- to jell. Spec, Gordon, guys, is that about where you are on it? In a vacuum you could put him in the pen for a year or two and then BOOM, he's ready to pull a Jeff Fassero. Maybe the new GM and MGR won't be as gulag'gy... but yeah. Excellent reminder.
And if the Mariners kick him to the curb, we all know that he's going to wind up being Doug Fister somewhere else. By no means is Dr. D (or anybody) saying that Maurer has earned a DFA. Or even a Wilhelmsen gulag'ing. :- )
What we do have is this, March 2014:
- Felix
- Iwakuma
- Cliff Lee, or you tell me where the M's spend their money
- Taijuan
- Paxton
- Erasmo Ramirez
- Danny Hultzen
- Brandon Maurer not being ready for two years
And, in that scenario, it looks more attractive to let Maurer just toss his 98 fastball and overhand curve in the pen, Earl Weaver style, maybe make some spot starts. I think I like him in an ML pen better than in an AAA rotation, because it's not clear to me exactly what he'd learn in AAA.
If Maurer's in the M's rotation in 2014, where is James Paxton? Or if Maurer is in the Rainiers' rotation, what exactly is he going to learn?
Your serve :- )
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Comments
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But as a 98 mph righty, he's also up against this:
Farquhar, 96, 7.5 hits, 13K / 3.5 BB per 9
Pryor, 97, 6 hits, 11.5K / 4.5 BB per 9 (minors)
Capps, 99, 7.5 hits, 12K / 3 BB per 9 (minors; 10.5 / 10 / 3.5 in the bigs)
Carson Smith, 97, 7 hits, 12K / 3.5 BB per 9 (minors, w/ just 3 HRs in 112 IP)
Logan Bawcom, 95, 8 hits, 9K / 3.5 BB per 9 (minors)
Tyler Burgoon, 95, 7.5 hits, 10.5 K / 3.5 BB per 9 (minors)
Those are JUST righties, and that list doesn't include Arias (9 / 10.5 / 4 in the upper minors this year with nasty stuff), or Leone (did throw 92, now throws 97 with accuracy & has 3.5 pitches) or Ruffin (back-end bullpenner getting back on the horse) or Snow (got back on HIS horse to the tune of 6.5 / 9/ 3).
If you think the rotation is packed with options, you ain't seen the pen guys. And it's not like Maurer has been lights-out while he's been in the pen. As you illustrated in your "point" post, he's been the same guy, just with the extra 10% (or whatever) pen edge.
Maurer in the pen: .857 OPS against
Capps in the pen: .875 OPS against
Which guy should get that pen shot as "the guy who loves his hittable slider and gets less out of his 98 mph fastball than he should?" If Maurer has a Capps-ian struggle, you bumping him to the pen in the minors, back to the rotation...? Good way to screw a kid up, IMO. "Start in the rotation in the minors, okay now to the bigs, no wait back to the rotation in the minors, okay to the bullpen in the bigs! Hang on, back to the minors in the, uh... bullpen. No wait, the rotation! Awwww, whammy..."
I just want a coherent plan for the kid. Like I said, as funny as it is we don't NEED him in the pen if everybody's healthy.
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And as to what he would learn in the AAA rotation... well, he didn't demolish AAA when he was demoted (ERA over 5, five walks per 9, very hittable) and he never came up THROUGH there on his first trip to the bigs (we skipped him over AAA and dropped him straight into the bigs from AA).
So yeah, he might have room to learn a little something. ;) And sometimes it's not about the competitors, it's about the teaching. Maybe the 2014 pitching coach has the right thing to say at the right time, and THAT'S what he needs to be around for.
But regardless, we're at a point now where we don't need to rush anybody. Assuming we add a stud third starter, there are two rotation spots and a few pen roles. We have Walker, E-Ram, Hultzen, Paxton and Maurer for those two rotation spots (and Elias as a dark horse even), with a dozen other arms fighting it out for the pen.
We don't have to mash Maurer into a role that we need filled - there are plenty of guys to fill roles, and the cream of the crop should rise to the top, yes? If not, they can be demoted and replaced at will with other studs.
So just let Maurer pitch. I'd have him in Tacoma, and when he demolishes AAA he can force his way back onto the big league roster, either in the pen or the rotation. But we're past gift promotions now, or forcing a wrench to be a hammer. We should have a full complement of both wrenches AND hammers come the Spring. I think Maurer is a AAA wrench in need of extra learnin' time. If he comes to camp and looks like he doesn't, more power to him, but he should still be a starting wrench until there's a need in another area.
Tossing Maurer into the pen after Smith, Bawcom and Capps have all gone down in flames and Pryor is on DL again is one thing. I don't mind that, and am glad we can grab a fistful of 95+ righties and throw them at the flames until the fire's extinguished. But deciding he should get promoted over those guys when he has stuff but no particular aptitude yet? Strikes me as hasty, Treebeard, very hasty, harruum.
~G
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Walker and Paxton are not rotation OPTIONS, they are in.
Now, they may or not be in on April 1st (I vote for "Not") but by June, they are in.
Tacoma does nothing for them, not a single thing. Walker is a top line guy from day one, Paxton needs MLB batters to learn to be.
Felix, Kuma, Walker and Paxton is 80% of our July rotation (minus injury). E-Ram or a FA acquisition is the remaining 20%.
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Moe I am not disagreeing with you, BUT.... How many games will a starting rotation of Felix, Kuma, E-Ram, Walker and Paxton win in 2014... and can Jack and his team afford to gamble their jobs on these young guns success?
I agree that the best thing for the long term health of the Mariners is to start these five, but I highly doubt Jack & Howie & Chuck will allow that to happen.
EXPECT a trade of one of these five guys this off season... because Jack can wait for Mauer, Hultzen, Arias and Pike only if Jack makes it to 2015.
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I already see most of my thoughts on this one.
Maurer is a tough call to me. Trades can change the dichotomy pretty quick but otherwise I'm thinking mlb pen because he can be a plus there sooner and we have so many other for the rotation. Spec pointed out his limited innings between no college and low professional totals. Ideally, or 2 years ago, I say to keep him in a rotation and struggle through teaching him. The depth changes things.
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And said similar before this season. Then Hultzen and Erasmo went down and, well...we needed that depth. That's a part of why I'm not antsy to trade any of them. Maurer can show up with game plans in spring and we'll all eat our words, or he can show minimal progress and it's back to this conversation. He's not going to fetch much pitching like this or we'd be talking trade piece.
It pretty much comes down to too soon to tell right now whether it's about the depth in spring, who the best options are, where he should be and in what role. I made my preference for now because that's the conversation, but truly my answer is "not enough data"
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Ya, Maurer has 46 innings at AAA, which weren't overwhelming by any means. Perhaps 150 innings there, with a directive to spot the slider, would make sense.
The over-arc'ing point, time to stop rushing the arms, that has traction. Good stuff amigo. Sometimes you just gotta tip yer cap. :- )
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... there will be a lot of fun this winter. If not, the rotation does look pretty clear, ya.
But good point Rain. If Z is back, he's liable to pushing all in for 2014 W's. That doesn't suggest Maurer to me.
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nm
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I really do not think Howie and Chuck are stupid.
These guys realize that the young pitching is still at least a year away from being ballpark above average pitchers as a whole. Thus, they do not know if Jack is a success or failure at this point... so another year is needed to make this decision. However, Howie and Chuck realize that it is NOT POPULAR to extend a GM who is showing no progress in his fifth year, so they are trying to avoid the entire subject with the blood thirsty media... and really this strategy is somewhat working.
Whether Wedge comes back or not... politics.
Jack will be back, but he MUST succeed to get another year... regardless of what that takes, and probably with a lot of input from Chuck & Howie...
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It's a sound thought, that's why I ask.
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If you're looking for a way around that the way it worked out this year makes the most viable backup plan look worse. I would say to do basically what they did with veterans in AAA, but that wound is too fresh.
I'm cool with trading 1 now and Kuma later if it's time to open a spot. Can't trade anyone signed during the offseason until a year in so it'd be a young guy, Felix or Kuma to make room.
Maybe the 2 long man/backup starter roster?
I think we all would like to see a good starter brought in. It makes sense for those reasons and more. I don't think it requires trading any young pitcher to do so at this time though.
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If the kids aren't in the rotation April 1, but rather June, then we'll have spit away a third of the season enduring another round of Bondo/Harang/Saunders types. These guys are so bad that no MLB team will take them. They belong out of baseball and pursuing real jobs, if they didn't already make enough money. The Mariners (and their fans) need no more of them. The kids are already better than these expired scrubs, even with any perceived "not-readiness". Get some management/coaching with some balls that will tell them to follow Zunino's pitch calls, and execute their pitches. It's time they grew up.
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Point #1: I have no problem with a FA pickup for the rotation. If (when) we go down that path, I would prefer it isn't a 100 ERA+ guy like Bazooka Joe Saunders. Get something shiny if you're doing this, Z. Doc's Bavasi point about your rotation being 7-deep is just so, Adding an arm here is ducky. But this arm shouldn't be in replacement of Walker and Paxton. Barring bumps and bruises or a ST ERA of 13.26, then those guys must be in the rotation...and should be notified of such now.
What is there to doubt about Walker? He and Felix/Kuma may well be the best three-man rotation in the league. How many games will a starting rotation of Felix, Kuma and Walker win in '14? As many as their offense will allow them to.
Paxton? MLB experience is what he needs. He's a fine #5 right now.
Really I wouldn't mind keeping one the kids up out of ST and giving the other 5 Tacoma starts to save the arb year (if that does it).
Give E-Ram the early rotation spot, and then he becomes your 6th starter/long-guy.
And I'm not trading Kuma. We've got him for two years...I'm trying to extend right now.
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They will get to that point quicker the quicker they are facing mlb hitters regularly. Paxton and Walker seem to probably be on that side of things. So filler would push their timetable back as well as not offering much if any on field improvement. Ramirez may be in that same boat and he could be the swing man. I think that's 6 already with possibilities beyond that. One SP is all that seems prudent at this point and I think he should be a capable #2. In isolation I'm happy with Iwakuma but if three of the kids need to be in the rotation somebody has to go. If the SP acquisition was traded for they could be traded away but if they were signed they can not be traded for a year. That leaves Iwakuma or Felix so you take your pick.
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Guys, yes we all love the rookies, and I want to keep them all. Understood.
However, if you are Jack, and your job depends on Walker and E-Ram / Paxton getting you 12 to 15 wins or having an ERA under 4.00 or whatever measurement you want to use - NO WAY... there is just no way Jack will be comfortable trusting his career and those of his co-workers on rookies. That is just not smart... especially if Jack plans on using Miller, Ackley, Zunino, and any other unproven kid like Saunders, Smoak, Almonte, Guti, or Franklin any where near the starting 25 man rotation.
EVERY GM would in this situation bring in a bunch of veterans... and I expect Jack to do the same. Thus, as we have all seen, since there is not that much out there via free agency, so trade or trades will have to be made... and many of us will not like the trades made.
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After tonight's effort, is anybody concerned about Paxton's MLB-worthiness? IF he's the end of your rotation it's a dang fine rotation.
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That's the recent history. To Improve the back end give me 3 starters better than that. I'd bet on Walker and Paxton plus all the others as backup options for 2 of those. If...
Spend, yes. Spend on DH, Corner outfield, 1 solid pitcher for bullpen and one for#3. That's a lot of money already. Why do we need stop gap pitchers now? Ask the Rays and Cardinals if we should send Paxton back down. I'm sure he'll get lost here and there but do you think the Mariners regret struggling through early Randy or the Expos regret trading him. Maybe they're busy regretting other things. As wild as Randy was his ERA was under 5 that first year here. Under 4.00 the next 5 before busting under 3 in 95. Not saying Paxton is the same pitcher but is a similar enough idea of the pitcher type. Well see him dominate at times and struggle in others for most of the same reasons we did with young Randy.
Any GM would... maybe. If they had the resources the Mariners seem to. What we believe they do. I still think Billy Beane (and others, some following the repeated example if no one else) would bring the pitchers up and surprise the league with winning. The division, maybe. It's happened before.
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I've never understood the argument that player x has nothing left to learn at Triple A, even though that same player is performing at a sub-standard level in the major leagues. Churchill was insistent on this point with regard to Smoak, but when we look back, that demotion seemed to help him. Sending Ackley back to Triple A seems to have helped him as well. Chris Tillman, the example cited by Gordon, basically split the last 4 seasons (2009 - 2012) between the majors and the minors. It seemed to work.
Seriously, I have never understood this argument. People talk about Triple A like it's little league or something. But it's the second highest level of professional baseball in the world. Just put Brandon Maurer down there next year and let him pitch. Let him get his innings in against high level professional hitters and work on his game. Maybe by mid-season he's ready to come up, or not. The way he pitches in Triple A will tell you if he's ready.
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I agree with this 100%. You can't throw Tilleman into the conversation on one hand and then with the oth hand say that the approach that the O's used to develop him is invalid.
The other thing you can do with a pitcher in AAA is that you can't do in the bigs is force-feed in-game practice on certain pitches. Want Maurer to learn a splitter? You can make him throw 25 a game in Tacoma, results be darned. You can't do that once he's wearing a major league uni.
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Good Paxton is a force in MLB. We haven't seen Bad Paxton yet but we will. Bad Paxton walks five guys, throws 95 pitches and gives upmfour runs in 31/3 innings. And he'll do it four or five starts in a row. Don't over react to two good starts from him and don't panic if his next two starts are disastrous. He is what he is - a very talented and wildly inconsistent young pitcher.
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This would be a great time to take a shot at a guy like Halladay that may be looking for a one year deal to prove his health. If he's back, you get a one year ace but you've got the depth to handle the down scenario too.
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This is support for the argument that Zduriencik needs to go. If they give him one more year and it's "win or else", that opens the door for some short-sighted trades. Last time that happened, we lost a franchise player (an aircraft carrier) in Adam Jones.
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Here are his first 10 starts as a Mariner:
6IP 6H 3BB 6K 2ER
7 - 3 - 3 - 6 - 0
7.2-3 -4 - 7 - 1
1.2-4 -4 - 1 - 4
3.1-7 -4 - 1 - 4
8 - 7 - 2 - 6 - 1
8.1-6 -2 - 3 - 3
6 - 6 - 3 - 4 - 2
6 - 6 - 5 - 1 - 4
9 - 5 - 3 -12- 1
That sample happens to be a bit better than his overall season. I can't find wild pitches/passed balls for individual games but recall there being a lot especially when struggling. I'd bet even in that 9 inning start a couple hit the backstop. Baseball reference didn't have pitches listed for Randy's first CG here or I'd have listed the counts. He was at that point the epitome of effectively wild in my years of watching. I don't think Paxton is as wild but I do think he's in the same realm of effectiveness with a different though similar set of nasty stuff. I'm curious when that slider started working for Randy but don't think there's any way to check like we have for pitchers now. Not saying they age and learn the same from here though.
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If it's that extreme. I think there's some middle ground and we really don't know any of that anyway. It's all based on assumption including that Bavasi was told in any way "win or else". We don't know what is said behind closed doors. No actions at this point would lead me to be certain that anything like that has been said to Zduriencik, short of someone in the know saying so. Any kind of move (aside from ones that just won't happen ie. FELIX trade) is understandable for this roster including trading a couple future franchise players. Not like we knew then, but Jones was really the only one there and there's no comparable for that with this current system.
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Well, we have Walker and Paxton and ERam and Miller and Franklin and Ackley and Seager and Zunino. I've complained in the past about a lack of urgency in the organization around winning, and I still think there's some truth to that. I've also said that I think the front office/ownership (above the GM level) lack professionalism. I still think that's true. And it's because I believe that these are underlying truths in the organization, that I worry especially about a situation where the GM is trying to keep his job.