IMHO, I just don't see Smoak developing into a MOO masher.
He's Nick Johnson
He's always been Nick Johnson
IMO, he will always be Nick Johnson.
I think his actual development has been significantly hampered by this (to me), unending attempt to turn him into Teixeira.
He is finally starting to actually leverage his primary batting gift - his eye - and the instant this happens, suddenly the dreams on 30-HR; 100-RBI resurface.
Understand - if he had been hitting doubles like Seager did in the minors, I'd have some optimism. But he didn't. He has *NEVER* demonstrated the "consistency" necessary to put up MOO numbers. What he has done repeatedly is shown the "when he's in the zone", he can do a nice Mark Teixeira impression for a couple of weeks. But, he's 26 and has never remained "in the zone" for more than about 6 weeks consecutively.
Oh, give him 3 years experience being Nick Johnson WITHOUT expectation of driving in a hundred runs, yeah, he might manage a single career year with MOO numbers. But, he's not 21 ... or even 23. He's already 26.
Maybe it is the switch hitting thing. Maybe being a switch hitter is what prevents the consistency to amass the countables that the eyes-on reviews keep saying "are coming any day".
But, numerically, true MOO hitters, they drive in 25-30 runs in a month when they get hot, which helps offset the 10-12 when they aren't. Smoak drives in 17-18 *when he's on fire*.
In order for Smoak to become a real MOO hitter ... he would have to *NEVER* have a bad month.
Don't get me wrong. I think Nick Johnson is a valuable commodity to have. Yeah, it would be better if your .400 OBP guy could steal 20 for you. But, I'll take the .400 OBP and be very, very happy hitting Smoak #2 in the lineup, letting somebody else steal bases in front of him and letting somebody else drive him in.
You get a savvy manager, maybe you can get Smoak to buy into getting shifted down to bat 4/5 when he's dialed in, (but NOT changing his approach). But, IMO, a guy with .400 OBP that is walk-driven with sporadic power is perfect for the #2 slot.
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After Sunday's game, the MLB.com article gave
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Although Franklin's shot was the only run scored in the first, the Seattle bats made Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo labor through the inning, as the 36-year-old right-hander threw 32 pitches in the opening frame.
"You can't just lay it in there against guys you don't know anything about," Reds manager Dusty Baker said of falling behind in the first inning. "After you learn something about them -- they've already homered off of you. They've got a good, young bunch of guys. They're going to be something to deal with in the next couple of years."
Two innings after jumping on the board first, the Mariners scored again on a two-run homer from Justin Smoak, who had been limited to pinch-hit duties while Kendrys Morales manned first base in the first two games of the series.
Wedge spoke after the game about the "light going off" with some of the team's younger players, and he included Smoak in that group.
Q. SSI would have us take what away from that, exactly?
A. At field level, Dusty Baker came away with the impression that Justin Smoak is an exciting, dynamic young player.
At the World Baseball Classic, the dugouts came away with the impression that Michael Saunders was ready to take over the league. He still may. Such an impression is not the end of the discussion. Neither is it worth nothing. Smoak is lookin' good down there.
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Q. Smoak is lookin' good? Like what?
A. We slo-mo'ed his HR many times. And other AB's.
We don't have the time to set up all the screen shots inside the post to document it: trust us, or don't.
Smoak experimented with that "slow motion" balanced swing, the one he can execute in a 30-second mode, like Hisashi Iwakuma can do with his pitching motion. Smoak is still using this swing. His "one-point," his center of gravity, remains still-and-silent as the grave as he launches and completes his swing.
It's remarkable the way his swing rotates around his CG in awesome balance ... to tell you the truth, it's actually sort of static to swing that way. It could be that right now, Justin Smoak's left hand swing is more like a PGA golfer's than any other major league player's is. Just remarkable stillness in the head and CG.
He does it to a fault. It constrains his arms and shoulders a bit, hinders his torque and fluidity. We're not complaining.
.........
Smoak went through the first two months making good line-drive contact, 23% in fact. But with a certain lack of dynamism: he hit only 3 home runs in 2 months. Perhaps you remember watching a few of these flat, lifeless line drives.
SSI opined that perhaps there would be a plateau effect: that once this "took," he'd start unleashing the bat.
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Q. HAS Smoak started unleashing the bat?
A. On the home run Sunday, he certainly did.
- He wound the bat up so far that the knob pointed at the pitcher
- He uncorked it with outstanding throughspeed and torque
- He did it all while the CG and head remained slo-mo still
Normally we'd give you the still pics. Trust us on this one?
On this one specific swing, he looked like he'd moved through the previous plateau, and moved on to the next one -- the one in which he lets the bat fly. What was it, 380', 390' the opposite field? A Michael Morse shot. It's been a while.
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Q. Do the stats corroborate the scouting eye?
A. Since Smoak returned from Tacoma:
| Games | 15 |
| AVG | .308 |
| OBP | .390 |
| SLG | .577 |
| OPS+ |
169 |
| HR/155 games |
41 |
| Line drives | 26% (average = 20%) |
| GB | 39% |
| Fly balls | 34% (nicely balanced to project LD's in future) |
| O-Swing% | 27% |
| Z-Swing% | 68% |
| Swing Strike% | 8% (cf Bay 9.4%, Morales 12.5%) |
In other words, Smoak for three weeks has been an 0.50 EYE slugger on a 40-home run pace, with a near .400 OBP. Good for him.
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Q. Would it be "realistic" for him to have a Carlos Pena-type breakout?
A. The M's have invested Cliff Lee, plus several years' worth of playing time, on the premise that Justin Smoak has the potential to become a cleanup hitter. There's nothing unrealistic about hoping for that. Granted, it has been frustrating, hoping for that.
Was everybody here aware that Justin Smoak was the COVER of a Baseball Prospectus issue? The pic above, in fact.
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Q. What is Dr. D's feel for the situation?
A. He is a huge fan of slow-motion sports training -- it secures balance, and through balance, later power. Ask Mo Dawg about a golf swing that can be executed in slow motion.
Also, Smoak's patience has always been good, and right now is superb. He can tell a ball from a strike. He's piling up a whale of a lot of walks right now, and is taking the inside pitch consistently.
On the other hand, it's certainly not clear to Dr. D whether Justin Smoak is quick enough at the plate to become a hitting star. We'll see. That hard inside fastball, they haven't been locating that on him very well. Is it still a fatal flaw in his swing? dunno.
If they start busting Smoak inside with great consistency, the way the abuse Ackley with outside fastballs, will that cause Smoak to unravel? Tough to say. There are ML hitting stars who "work around" pitches they can't hit. That's the pitch to watch on Smoak, the jam pitch. If he can fight that off -- I think the last two weeks he has been; that's my tentative impression -- then maybe it's all systems Go.
Since Smoak got back, he's been showing us something. Let's hope he keeps doing so.
Eric Wedge's feel for the situation: he has moved Smoak up into the middle of the order. Nice to know that Sgt. Wedge is seeing the same thing that Dusty Baker is.
Comments
Slo-mo work is terrific stuff. Harvey Pennick, THE teacher of Tom Kite and Ben Crenshaw was a big advocate of making the down move in slo-mo practice situations. But I think Sandy is right on, too. I've advocated Smoak in the lead-off spot...but perhaps #2 is better. He is no MOTO guy. He gets hot and then falls off the planet, and I'm not sure this isn't his Kotchman season. Either way, Smoak's best skill set is OBP related. Put him on base ahead of Seager-Franklin-bomber.
A Nick Johnson OBP heavy first baseman can be valuable, as long as he isn't too expensive. With Smoak there now and Choi a couple of years out in the queue, the M's may be in position to replicate that Nick Johnson model first baseman on the cheap for the next seven years or so.
Peterson moves to 1B sometime soon.
Since Smoak returned from his Tacoma demotion of last summer, he has put up the following numbers in 399 PA: .270/.369/.432/.801. The trajectory looks like it's going up, so I think it's quite possible we have an .850 OPSing first baseman who brings a good glove to help out the kiddie corps we have in the infield.
I don't buy the Kotchman comparison because Smoak has more power. Casey's best home run high season was 14, Smoak hit 19 last season with old Safeco as his home field. We also know from first hand experience what Casey Kotchman can do in Safeco field when he is in the prime year (27) of his career: post a .616 OPS with 9 home runs. But Justin, for as bad as he's been, has never come close to that in ineptness.
Nick Johnson hit 23 in his one real good season in old RFK in 2006. I'll bet Smoak was robbed of at least 5 home runs by Safeco last year. I think Smoak will fit in somewhere between the two - more power than Casey and Nick, lower OBP than Nick. But if Smoak has an age 27 season like Casey did...man, I will probably want to shoot myself.
So I don't worry about where he's gonna fit. I like his bat and his potential, but for all we know he stays at 3rd and we trade Seager for a kings ransom in the offseason after 2016. Or we trade DJ. They may play DJ some at 1B but if he's trade bait they'll want to prove he can play 3rd. I don't expect a full-time shift to 1B immediately for him, in part because HE wants to play third, so we'll let him either fail or succeed there for a while before wondering how he'll fit into our needs.
IMO the fastest track for DJ is the Goldschmidt track: half-a-season to start in a short-season league, then at least a year and a half to avoid Super Two his last season before coming up. If he's here before July 2015 it'll be both amazing and probably a mistake (as I think promoting Zunino this quickly has been). I'm thinking Spring or Summer 2016, personally, and that's if it works out.
Ji-Man Choi is much closer. He's already in AA, but I think he's at least a year, year and a half away. I want him to see tougher breaking pitches. The dude has had a ton of interruptions due to injury on his climb, so healthy seasons + building up his reference bank of pitches is a worthwhile thing. He reminds me so much of Choo at the plate, though, and not just because they're both Korean. Not tall but thick, hits a ton of doubles as a lefty, gets walked a lot and HBP pretty frequently too, and has 20 HR power. The difference: Choi is better against lefties than Choo is.
In 2016 I could see Ji-Man and DJ sharing DH and 1B, with Peterson able to play 3rd in a Youkilis sort of way. But I could also see both of them gone in trade. Smoak's last arb year is 2016 though, so trading him instead (especially with Boras as his agent) seems like the more prudent plan. But the kids gotta work out first.
~G
Is the Bledsoe Brothers - lawyers and swing doctors extraordinaire.
I keep thinking Smoak is a Boras client. Crush Davis was when he was with the Rangers and we were looking at 1B, and for us now Ackley, Morales, Paxton, Perez, Triunfel and the fabulous Nick Franklin all are. I don't think Kyle Seager is yet, but his younger brother Corey is repped by Boras, which means I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a Boras client before his FA comes up.
So a bunch of our potential roster... just not Smoak.
~G
According to the MLBTR database of agencies, which is pretty accurate and up-to-date, Nick Franklin is represented by Sportsmeter LLC, not Boras. The others you list are the extent of the "damage". If you follow my trade suggestions in the shouts, all of them could be gone. :-)
And Baker is backing me up with that:
https://twitter.com/gbakermariners/status/346824574870102016/photo/1
gbakermariners Geoff Baker 17 Jun
Nick Franklin's agent, Scott Boras enjoyed watching HR from dugout level seat. (blue shirt, on phone)
Just saying: Nick's gonna come at a price. Worry about it after 6 years of Awesome. ;-)
~G
no longer authoritative? life out of balance! - first Mayo and now MLBTR shown to have feet of clay. egads!