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From 1989-1992 ... actually about July of 1992, as we recall ... Randy Johnson was a mediocre pitcher, but a mediocre pitcher who had unlimited upside. IIRC, he had a great finish to 1992.
Bill James issued a major storm warning that winter. That was a pretty good heads-up, considering that it was the Jurassic Era of sabermetrics. These days, being ahead of the curve means you are 1-2 weeks earlier than everybody else. Which, as you know, SSI usually is. We live to serve.
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We might not be any earlier than you on this one, as far as Carter Capps being about to take over the league. But we'll nail down a few of the details that may not yet have gone to wide dissemination...
In 1993, Randy Johnson became an overwhelming pitcher because he started landing on his toe, started keeping his head over his CG (rather than leaning back), and could throw fastballs or sliders for strikes - pretty much at will.
About 1995, though, the Big Unit leaped another plateau because he refined his slider to the point to where he could locate it. In 1993 and 1994, he simply threw the slider at the knees, over the heart, for a strike. But in 1995, he started throwing some of them at RHB's back feet. Moe, Lonnie, you remember watching righties swing at pitches that hit them?
He added to this the ability to really back-door the slider, his "Frisbee" pitch. So he actually did have four different weapons: challenge fastball, challenge slider, slider breaking out of the strike zone gloveside, and slider nipping the strike zone armside against RHB's. (This pitch did not exist against LHB's, because LHB's did not appear in Johnson's games.)
We remember a scout of that era saying, "There's nothing you can really do. He'll throw the slider in, he'll backdoor it. He'll go up the ladder on you now. He's just got so many weapons."
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For the first time on April 8th, Carter Capps threw his slider at will for an armside back-door strike, or down the middle for a de facto changeup, or breaking off the plate for a gloveside sucker pitch.
He located the fastball at 93, or he ramped up to 97 when he wanted.
Mike Blowers marvelled after the game. "As a right hand hitter I can tell you that you have no chance, if he's going to do that."
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Capps threw 13 pitches, 12 of them strikes. What's worse (for the league), he seemed to throw about 10 of those strikes exactly where he wanted them. I busted his chops for "falling in love with the slider," but I was wrong. He was just locking it in, and he was able to go right back to 97 MPH as soon as he'd consolidated.
This is like Capps' 15th game, and already he's finessing the AB's like a third-year guy. Whew.
I don't know if he's going to execute like this, every game from now on. I can only tell you what will occur, if he does. If Capps can throw the slider to three different spots, as he seemed to do easily on Monday, he'll compile Aroldis Chapman type stats.
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Not that he should be a reliever. Chris Sale was an overwhelming reliever before the White Sox decided they'd rather have a Cy Young starter.
TJM said they resisted, this winter, because they wanted to see Capps become more consistent with his breaking ball ... okay, now what?!
Shame they don't slam Capps into the rotation and just sit back looking like a tree fulla owls, as Amarillo Slim used ta say.
Stephen Pryor is also kicking tail and taking names; with the Bartender, Pryor, Furbush and Oliver Perez, they've got the luxury of adding a free 18-game winner to the rotation. Sure, it's a hit to the bullpen. So you think the White Sox should move Chris Sale back to the 7th inning?
But if they want to go with the Aroldis Chapman scenario, that'll be okay too.
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LHB vs. The Big Unit? Ask John Kruk! Still one of my favorite MLB moments of all time!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SH715tr6ek
If Capps vs. RHB is a bit of that then we're truely playing that 7 inning game....or 6 inning game, when you include the rest of the pen besides The Bartender.
When you can go upstairs at 95 AFTER playing on the inside/outside black with the slider, well that's a bit unfair, isn't it? :)
5 and 4 after tonight. Go team.
moe
And I think the reason not to pitch him in the rotation this year would be you don't want to test the arm that fast. He has no established history of starting, I don't believe.
I'm fine with him being Mo Rivera 1996...100 bullpenn innings 2 at a time when necessary...which seems to be what Wedge is doing with him thus far.
And just for the record...you're about four weeks behind me on the predictin front. :D I gave projectios to my father in an email back in Mid March...had the Mariners going 87-75...had Maurer making the rotation...stuff like that. But had Carter Capps compiling this line:
CAPPS: 1.40 ERA, 90 IP, 125 K, 15 BB, 2 HR, 65 H, 6-1 Record with 6 saves (as the priamry fallback to Wilhelmsom if he was overworked in the previous game)
I had Wilhelmson and Pryor with decided more pedestrian (good) numbers:
WILHELMSON: 3.05 ERA, 3-4 record, 85 IP, 90 K, 30 BB, 7 HR, 75 H, 43 Sv
PRYOR: 2.80 ERA, 3-2 record, 65 IP, 60 K, 25 BB, 8 HR, 55 H 2 Sv
Pryor is going to have problems with the occasional long ball because his fastball is arror ARROW straight. A comparable would be the locked-in Brandon Morrow. Pryor has also shown more tendency to fatigue quickly and is max effort, meaning he can't throw a ton of innings.
Wilhelmsom has occasional problems commanding his curveball and when he can't locate the curve, his fastball is definitely hittable when behind in counts. On the other hand, unlike League, when he can't throw his curve for strikes, he doesn't simply pump in fastballs...he still tries to battle every at bat and pitch backwards.
For Capps to go 2 full innings at a time, Sgt Wedge will have to let him face lefties consistently. Last night, with a 3-0 lead and one baserunner, Sgt took Capps out when a lefty came up. Perhaps as Capps gets more consistent with his stuff, Wedge will let him face lefties in tight situations. But what a weapon Capps is becoming.
For Capps to get trusted with long, high leverage outings, Wedge will be looking to see if he can start pounding lefties in on the hands with the slider the way that RJ did to righties...or whether he can get a little more consistent with the location of his fading change-up. Either is a good out pitch against the lefites...but he needs to be able to do that regularly...which I think he can.
Unit vs Kruk ... counting the moment just before, when he airmailed one to the backstop and there was Barry Bonds on the bench "He did that on purpose," it might have been my FAVE moment. That and the double.
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If Capps is going to execute like this, then he is a 101% analogue for Jeff Nelson 2001. Wilhelmsen is probably a full Daimajin 2001 (Sasaki was the worst of the three RP's). Going to be tough for Furbush to come up to Arthur Rhodes, though, no?
Maybe Pryor and Furbush together will eventually come up to Rhodes and whoever was the #4 in 2001. Charlton?
Capps was a starter in college, and was very Unit-like.
They don't have all their archived stats online from Mount Olive College, but he was 24-1 in two years of starting: 10-0 and then 14-1. He won his first 24 decisions in a row and then lost his only decision. (He actually was converted to pitcher from catcher his freshman year, which is apparently why he was in Division II in the first place. He was just a backup catcher on his high school team.)
His junior year (the 14-1 year) he had a no-hitter and 129 strikeouts (school record ... not clear how many innings but obviously his K/9 was close to 10), and was Division II Player of the Year.
Then, after the 2011 draft, he made four starts for Clinton.
It was only at that point (2012 season) that the Mariners made him a full-time reliever, and within a few months he was in the majors. He had also been a reliever during the summers in the Cape Cod league.
More here: http://marinerstalk.com/article/marinerstalk40-5-carter-capps-rhp
Because that is exactly what their reasoning will be. ;- ) Except that Capps has started before, am pretty sure. Seems like Gordon has discussed that.
But yeah. Once he's throwing great in the bullpen, they won't want to tinker. They'll visualize all the bad things about a Chris Sale conversion.
As you can tell, Dr. D doesn't pre-read his blog before spewing alphanumeric characters :- )
Didn't know he was Div II player of the year. Spec, any idea why he wasn't recruited major college?
Man. First 24 decisions in a row?! So he has some clue, what it's like to win a ballgame. That gives me SOME hope that at some point in the future they'll consider it. If he didn't have the SP background I'd have figured, no chance.
We'll repeat the link he gave just now.
In his patented, home-brewed Spectometer, he gives Capps as having more value than Nick Franklin and, if I understand the article right, more value than Miller and Zunino also. Even if he stays in the bullpen.
Not really as farfetched as you might think, if you're going by the number of relievers in BBA's top 100. Who had more career value, Mo Rivera or Jason Varitek?
RE: not recruited by Division I
That was in the comment too. Actually.
:-)
He was a backup catcher in high school. Didn't pitch until freshman in college and almost instantly was the best pitcher in Division II.
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To clarify: I had Capps at #5, ahead of Miller and Franklin, but below Zunino and the Big Three.
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And: early warning ... the next guy on the way up, as I discuss today, is Dominic Leone. First two outings:
4.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
http://marinerstalk.com/article/marinerstalk40-25-dominic-leone-rhp
It's not clear exactly HOW Capps is going to attack lefties. Certainly the Unit didn't have any trouble using the slider against righties, but Capps' has a different, more LHB-friendly angle. Maybe the slider, or maybe the changeup, or maybe he IS destined for a Jeff Nelson career path...
Trying to scan all this great stuff too quick and get back to the day job. But yeah. Thanks.
So the script is complete. He fell to us through a cosmic alignment of karma?