I have not had timet to do anything but a quick glance at the box scores. Thus I greatlyI appreciate the updates on hitting, especially about Ackley. I was wondering if he had gone passive? Great news in there, especially about Pryor and Capps. Looked like Wilhelmsen was getting squeezed a bit last night on some low fastballs. I enjoyed your analysis of Felix getting squeezed and hosed.
I would be happy to head home and give Mr. Hultzen a ride north on I-5! Interestingly, Garland pitched pretty good here in Colorado today. I guess all of the resin laced balls were in Oakland.
I did see one thing real quick today. I don't remember the inning but I think the M's had a runner or two on when the Sox went to a lefty out of the pen. Wouldn't that be a good time to slip Bay into the game for Ibanez?
Keep up the great work please!
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In terms of bases gained and bases lost, the M's deserve to be 3-and-3. They've faced two contenders, on the road. Back away from the ledge, kiddies. The first six games have gone very well for a young team in search of an identity.
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Bill James once said, "baseball is about the strike zone." The Mariners' batting average isn't yet best in the league, but if this keeps up, it soon will be ....
Has it seemed to you like the M's are seeing the ball well? F/X backs up our suspicions.
When scouts refer to the HIT tool, they're talking about the ability to cover a pitch irrespective of how hard the batter swings. Let's look at the M's HIT tool.
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So far the Mariners' lineup ranks #1 in the American League for fewest "balls" swung at:
| Team | O-Swing % | Rank |
| Mariners | 23.6% | 1 |
| AL Average | 29.4 |
That's not because the Mariners are going up to the plate with the bats glued to their shoulders. Assuming that the pitch is a strike, they're letting the bats fly:
| Team | Z-Swing % | Rank |
| Mariners | 67.7% | 4 |
| AL Average | 64.2% |
The M's are #1 in plate discipline, if by "discipline" you mean that a guy refuses to swing at a ball. What's even more interesting: the next five teams on the list (A's, Twins, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Indians) are all BELOW average in swings at strikes. In other words, the Mariners are doing a FAR better job, than ANY other AL team, at managing the strike zone.
This isn't because they've been playing the Astros ... the A's had a 114 ERA+ last year, the White Sox had a 108 ERA+, and both teams are known for savvy pitching.
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When the M's do let the bats fly, they're covering the pitches well:
| Team | Contact% | Rank |
| Mariners | 80.3% | 4 |
| AL Average | 77.2% |
They're only the barest tick behind teams #2 and #3.
As a side note, the Houston Astros have a shocking Swing-and-Miss percentage going. Slap me silly and call me Shirley. Here's the link. These guys could be in for a looooong year.
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However, the M's line drive rate is last in the league after six games.
They're hitting lots and lots of fly balls. I dunno if that's all bad - I've heard pitchers don't like fly balls. Maybe if they're going to be a fly ball team, then as the weather warms up (and they get out of Oakland), a few will leave the park.
We don't mean to edit this article in favor of the M's, but I don't see any particular reason that the 17% line drive rate will sustain, do you? Morales, Seager, Morse, Ibanez, etc., those guys get on top of the ball fine.
By the same token, you don't expect the M's to finish all 162 games and have this kind of a lead in O/Z swing ratio. If they did, they'd lead the league in runs, easily. We're simply noticing that the Mariners are laying some great AB's out there right now.
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Which Mariners get the most credit for the amazing O-Swing/Z-Swing ratios?
- Saunders -- 14% O-Swing / 88% Z-Swing
- KoK'Mo -- 15% / 84%
- Seager -- 18% / 63%
- Montero -- 22% / 68%
- Guti -- 24% / 72%
All those guys are legitimate SIZZLERs for the first half of the year. Gutierrez, you guys have already been likin'.
As far as Michael Saunders, what happened was that he was way hardcore intense during the WBC, and then suffered a letdown. He could be getting his extra concentration back shortly. But it looks clear that he's continuing to grow as a player.
There's good news all over the place. Dustin Ackley hadn't swung and missed yet this season, before he had one miss today, and he's swinging hard. With him it's just pitch recognition, boys. He's going to be a hitter.
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Takeaway #1: Eric Wedge has a 12-to-make-9 offense going, and so far he's done a great job with it. His batters du jour are going up there and battling the pitchers tooth and nail.
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Takeaway #2: The M's batters so far have the best HIT tool in the league.
Funny thing is, they're not a HIT team. They're a PWR team. :: he stops short ::
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Takeaway #3: The M's 12-to-make-9 lineup has real potential to be one of the tough lineups in the AL. They've got a 1-2 starting pitcher combo that, as a duo, any team in the league would love to have. Pryor and Capps are looking great right now.
They're a couple of BOR tweaks away from being legit. How long till Hultzen's here, didja say?
Comments
If I understand what you're saying, Ackley's doing well at making contact, but he's still swinging at too many pitches out of the zone that aren't really good pitches to hit, hence your comment about pitch recognition being the missing piece for him. Is that right?
Ackley's discpline is very poor. O-swing/Z-Swing is a horrific 32.5%/58%. The high contact rate is hopeful, but the high O-swing so far has translated into way too many weak ground balls. Alas, it's only 20 AB's. He probably has at least until April 30. At that point, without improvement, I wouldn't be surprised at a few weeks at Tacoma to get straight.
Great Q, GLS.
Ackley has remarked in the past about his confusion at the plate. The eye confirms.
We're not going by stats on this one ... he just seems to pick up the ball real late and is "in between" a lot. But the talent is obvious ... you'll notice the M's don't waver IN THE SLIGHTEST when it comes to Ackley. That's not an accident.
Yes, this seems so, but let's remember that the AL averages are 29% and 65%.
Agreed that the O-swing battle is the problem and, what's worse, his contact rate on O-zone pitches is 92% (!) Good catch Rob. This is what torpedo'ed Ichiro during his last few months here. Lots of contact on pitchers' pitches.
I'm an Ackley believer, but it looks like it's going to be awhile.
If you haven't had a chance to see the games, Jeff, he really lets the bat fly once he sees a pitch.
Honestly would just put his travails down to strike zone management. As you know, he's trying to tip his cap on the ball outside, and do something with the other pitches, but right now it's not working.
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Thanks for the note back-channel, amigo. :- )
RockiesJeff wouldn't mention this publicly, but Jeff's son (who is a year younger than his grade) is leading prep schools in the state of Colorado in K's ... 47 K in 31 innings with 12 BB and 12 hits allowed.
In case you guys wonder why I'm always intent on RockiesJeff's take on baseball mechanics. A great high school baseball coach has a lot of light bulbs on that you and I don't, even if said HS coach always seems to be meekly asking the chessplayers' opinions about the game of hardball....
It's a funny thing. Most of the actual baseball people we've had join us at SSI, do a lot more listening than they do talking. There are times I kinda wish I'd spent more time in the sport. Some super cool people around.
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While we're trading admiration :- ) here's a question I'd never figured out.
When a baseball hitter sees his contact rate go WAY UP on BALLS OUTSIDE THE ZONE -- leading to a slump -- why is that? Why would a batter start making contact on 8-9 of 10 swings outside the zone, whereas he normally only makes contact with 5-6 such swings? Are we talking about a more defensive swing and an exaggerated attempt to put the ball in play?
Or maybe he's going after borderline pitches, and the fact that the pitches are reachable --- > lead to the increased O-Zone contact?
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Michael Morse being the anti-Ackley right now. Only 37% of swings O-Zone making contact :- )
Ackley this year has been more willing to take the pitch where it is thrown. Last year he was pulling off on everything and it caused his contract rate to go down and he ended up rolling over on everything.
His new stance at the plate has also allowed him to see the pitches better. He has better vision out of his left eye than his right and with the new open stance he can track the ball much better this year out of the pitchers hand
Great comments here show the depth of knowledge of this group. Much appreciated! Good question above. I am seriously not one to ask but, if I may, how about likening that to a golf scenario. How many times does a golfer tee off on a wide open fairway and hit it right down the middle without any problem. Nice relaxed swing. Not thinking too much. Not scared to swing right through the shot. Put the same golfer on a narrow hole and suddenly the ball flies 30 years off line. The hole gets into the head. The hazards call out. And poof. A defensive swing trying to guide it down the middle rather than hitting through the hitting zone hard to the target. We all know that rarely works. How can the same player hit shots that are so extreme. Inconsistent mechanics but often those find their root in a lack of confidence and tha the attempt to produce something rather than going through the necessary action of just hitting the ball.
Jeff, your statement about a defensive swing or exaggerated attempt to put the ball in play? Well said. My idea? Swing at strikes and hit the inside of the ball where it is thrown. Planning is good. But too much thinking can also cripple. I think that is why it often takes an Ackley longer than people think to catch on. Baseball is a very difficult sport! How many people ripped about Morse a few years ago that are now on his bandwagon?
When Morse makes contact, he makes serious contact. BABIP is helpful. But if the contact is weak, don't expect much success.
Just saw the M's started off good at home shutting out the AAAAstros. I guess I should take back my comments on Saunder. Nah! Was Montero his friend tonight?
Blizzard here tomorrow. No baseball!!
Having taken a look at their lineup ... yowch. Pretty sure the expansion Mariners had it over this crew by a good margin.