Carp, somewhere this season = a couple of dozen homers.
If Smoak remains Smoak, this will be a "What the heck?" type of move.
Alas, it has been coming for months.
Adios Carpy, we hardly knew ye.
moe

There was room on the 25-man roster in 2013 for Carp before the signing of Raul, who is a 1-yr wonder, full of veteran grittiness (and sure to be a favorite of Seargant Wedge). I can understand all of GMZ's moves this offseason except Raul's signing - Carp is a better, younger player with upside, who can do everything that Raul can. I wish the M's had DFA's Raul and kept Carp.

That's why they traded for TWO Cy Young pitchers - they had already stocked their hitting roster, what else was left to do?
2008: Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hardy, Cameron and Hart are ALREADY on the roster. Bill Hall is scuffling and Kendall is a bad catcher, but everything else is pretty good and everybody but Cameron is a 26-and-under. They traded the following for CC Sabathia:
- LaPorta, one of Jack's few first round misses but the #25 prospect in the land that year
- Michael Brantley, who turned into a 3 WAR CF last year for Cleveland and a Bourn-type (ironically)
- Rob Bryson, an 11.5 K / 4 BB bullpenner with an ERA under 3 career in the minors.
- Zach Jackson, throw in #6 starter AAAA type
For us, that would be like Zunino / Triunfel / Burgoon / DJ MItchell.
Two years later (2010) they had enough chips to trade for Greinke. They sent out:
- Alcides Escobar, glove SS with an acceptable (if not power) bat, #12 prospect (yes, really)
- Lorenzo Cain, another CF in the Bourn mold (starting to get surprised we didn't add Bourne this offseason)
- Odorizzi, a 9K/

It's a choice we didn't actually have to make. Smoak could have been demoted and left to reconstruct his game down there with a hitting coach he apparently loves.
So Justin had better BRING IT this year. All that talent needs to turn into production - now.
~G

may have gone very awry. Chasing the Fielder or Hamilton is exactly what Jack has been doing. I think the last Civic he acquired was Figgins and with the rising prices Saunders is more like a Kia. Via free agency, anyway.
On the other side, we've been discussing the back end of three roster crunch a bit lately. I think you'd feel better bringing a couple young guys along in the rotation with a Grienke behind Felix already, but i still think they would have wanted Iwakuma, Saunders or Vargas with them. With the lack of upper outfield prospects and depth I kind of understand finding as much spaghetti to throw at the wall as possible. They even tried Carp and Peguero out there. Wells still looks like a good pickup to me and I'm hoping he's platooned properly. It's very unlikely that trade ever looks good though. If Wells is ditched for nothing I'll be disappointed. I'm disappointed that it's happening with Carp, but the veterans they felt they needed pushed him out. I think the veterans were needed too, so it's not as crushing. Still wasteful.
Hopefully the moves at this point are more 4 for 1 type because the roster crunch us only getting more crowded from here. I expect 2+ guys up from the system every year unless they change the front office. No way can they all fit here, so it's either trading the incumbent, losing them to free agency or trading the prospects. As Jack recently said "I've got plenty of prospects, what do I need yours for?" We may be only 5 months away from a 4 for 1 to fuel a playoff surge and fill a long term need. That's what I'm hoping, because you're right that the garden is overgrown with scrubs. Another star or 2 positions them very well to catch fire.

Nothing says we're not trading Carp and Kelley in the next couple days. We may already have a plan. I may not like it, but a plan could be there. ;-)
~G

Except I believe in his progress. I've been wrong before, but the worst case there is probably more playing time for Wells when Morse finds more time at first. Then room for someone like Stanton to be brought in in July. I like Carp very much and the odd thing is he's become Zduriencik's type of player to a tee since he was acquired. Aside from the injuries.

If we can package Carp, Kelley, with perhaps two of Triunfel and/or Martinez and/or Noesi and/or Medina and/or Peguero and/or Liddi and/or Thames for something useful, even if he doesn't have 5.0 WAR right now, it would ease the crunch considerably. If Bonderman or Garland are back and need to go on the 40-man, it will no longer be pruning, it will start to be clear-cutting, unless we can get value for these marginal guys. I see even Andino being bait, depending on how Miller, Romero, and Franklin do in ST and the first month of the AAA season.
I still would like to see them try for a high-upside blocked guy, or a guy that hasn't gotten consistent playing time. We've got prospects; we could really use a good fielding outfielder who could platoon with Bay or Wells (if platooning isn't obsolete :-)) and provide .800 OPS thump from the left side - Carp has the thump, but not the skills in the field, which is sad for us. I'm partial to Domonic Brown, even if we had to overpay, because his situation seems to make him the classic change-of-scenery candidate. Stick him in the lineup at 8 or 9 against righties and watch him exceed Bill James' prediction (which is .274/.347/.445/.792 playing full time) by letting his strength play. And with his arm in right, we could have Buhner redux, at least until BigFoot Stanton is available. Then, an outfield of Brown/Morse (Brown/Wells? Brown/Bay?), Saunders, and Stanton might attract some envy.
The other thing I'm hoping for is for Raul Ibanez to see that he might be most useful if he takes the 2nd hitting coach job and provides the clubhouse presence that way. I think he's an outstanding guy who has much to contribute, but when you look at the roster, he doesn't really fit well as a backup outfielder, especially if Bay is healthy, or if they can get a LH-hitting outfielder who can really field and throw. But if Raul can help Montero learn to DH on the days Zunino catches, he could really contribute to the continued success of this club as constructed.

What if you only thought it increased each players chance by 5%? Saunders + Wells + Ackley + Seager + Montero + Smoak + Wells would equal 35% added. Couldn't it help Gutierrez and Ryan too? what about the other guys in spring training? Zunino, Franklin, Romero, Miller, Hicks, Catricala, etc. etc., etc.
Is it somewhat cumulative? Does adding Ibanez, Morales, Bay and Morse make it more like 7.5% per? 10%?
The belief in needing the right veterans doesn't end with production from the support and comfort they can supply. Camaraderie has been considered by many in the game to be a boost over 162 games. There's noshortage of examples and quotes to show that players managers and coaches believe this. Which giant recently said "you can't buy chemistry"? Can't quantify it either, but I'm confident it exists.

Yep!

but the fit for him is now difficult. Guti, Wells and Saunders are presently necessary in my view since one injury puts you at 2 guys you'd be ok with in CF with nothing in AAA to back up. With those 3 and Morse the most I would expect is one other outfielder. If Ibanez and Bay look done, Thames and Peguero don't look like your answer, Catricala and Romero don't look ready with the transition to a corner then it certainly seems like a need.
BTW Bill James has Eric Thames at .271 .326 .462 (.788) but I get the upside with Brown.

But deflation of prospect value might have scared him off for the time being. Going to 5 or 6, if necessary, sounds wise as you point out if the climate doesn't change. He did have something together for Upton, even if it was a longshot.

The problem is that you can't prove that theorem. If Ackley rips again, why isn't it because he's matured and recovered from injury, rather than the presence of some guy the M's think has Yoda-esque properties? Montero flashed masher properties last year.....if he grows this year why isn't it just normal growth? Seager, too. If they all fail to rip, is it Raul's fault?
Does Raul bring any more grizzled vet lessons than Chris Chambliss, who played in about 14 WS's?
Did Olivo help those guys last year, btw?
But Wedge is all in on that type of player.....so much so that Carpy goes. OK, if we get something of value in return for Carp and Kelley that will be nice. But the Raul signing still drives me nuts.
Career numbers, vR, for D. Brown: .243-.324-.412 For E. Thames: .261-.307-.446
And check out Thames two very large partial seasons in Las Vegas (I know, everybody gets batting healthy in Vegas).
Carp again: If Carp goes because we're all in on Thames, then that's a roll of the dice that makes some sense. But to abandon both (which is what a Thames in Tacoma move really is) for Raul/Bay is beyond weird.
Thames in a platoon with Wells/Guti makes sense.
There's an all-in move on Smoak here, too. OK, but how quickly do you pull the trigger on sending him down, if he's at .220-.300-400 in May? He was nice in Sept., sure, but it lasted about a minute and a half.
And Z must realize, with the Morse siging, that Raul suddenly was in the way. Does he go if Romero or Franklin go ballistic in Tacoma? If so, then what the heck did you bring him in for?
While I shake my head at much of this, I will still say, "Go team!
And here's a weird thought: If we start very slowly, what is the over/under date on Wedge being replaced?
moe

For a LH batter with 1) good fielding ability; 2) low K% and reasonable BB%; 3) platoon split not too extreme; and 4) young, with upside - Brown seems to be the best out there. If you add the ability to play CF, then Michael Brantley suddenly seems interesting, especially now that Cleveland has signed Bourn. Nowhere near Brown's power, but some upside there nonetheless. He's in the same mold as Saunders and Wells but can hit LH better than Wells hits RH, so a platoon might work well, while not requiring an immediate swap-out for if a LH reliever is brought in.
BTW Bill James assumes Thames (and Wells) as a platoon/part-time player in his prediction, while Brown and Brantley are assumed to be full-time. When you look at the splits, that makes sense. It also makes sense that if the Bill James prediction for Brown was as a platoon player, he'd be well over .800, since his career OPS split is about .150 with a 3:1 split of PA. Also, Thames is a lousy fielder (Ibanez and Morse are both probably better). If I were JackZ, I'd be looking for a guy to platoon with Wells or Bay that is in Wells' class in the field, but can hit RH pitching, and the harder, the better.

I'm surprised Bill has Thames projected so highly. I wonder what he sees the other projections don't (Steamer and Oliver have him at .714 and .732 OPS). He had a whale of a AA season at age 23. I can't remember if that's old or young according to the Spectrometer, but I'd sure like Spec to run him through it and see what comes out. He seems to pretty much outperform what those predictors have for Carp. The platoon advantage Thames offers from the left side doesn't appear to be all that great, but I suppose he's Guti insurance, assuming we can stash him in AAA.

But every player will name a mentor or 2. Some were prep, college or MiL coaches. Morse names Ibanez. Ibanez names Moyer, Edgar and Harvey Dorfman who Moyer introduced him to. Just heard Felix credit Beltre on the radio. There's belief among the people in the game, who I think would know best, that the effects are real. The SABR community doesn't say it doesn't exist, just that it's unquantifiable. Unquantifiable evidence or even lack if evidence is absolutely not evidence against.
The Olivo idea misses that Wedge has been saying all the veterans last year were not mentors. The stated goal was to add those mentors this year.
"He kind of finds younger players because he's more interested in talking to them and helping them," Charlie Manuel said. "I think it might ease his mind. I think he's that kind of guy really." Manuel himself is credited with the breakouts of Manny, Belle, Thome and Murray.
I think a slow start would have to be very bad and going into June for a change to really be considered. It seems unlikely to me and I would rather not consider it. That would be very painful to me emotionally.

Hey I like Kelly & Carp. A few years back, I even thought it was a good idea to place Kelly into the starting rotation. But then the injuries started to pile up and maybe that is what the M's saw - a fairly good relief pitcher that could not stay on the field (therefore could not be counted on). And the money although not a lot relative to Felix, is not inconsequential either when evaluating a bullpen arm that has a history of breaking down.
Carp is another one of the players I had an affinity towards. I was hoping Wedge would be able to think out of the box a little and try him at 3rd this Spring with Seager sliding over tot 2nd and Ackley in CF (therefore maximizing the offensive output). But with Carp's injuries last year (first his shoulder and then his hip while he was stretching for a ball at 1st base), the M's management could very well see these injuries as chronic issues going forward.
I'm not one to make excuses for managament but they are closest to the situation and should be intimately familiar with their health issues (as Jack Z said during the Felix signing news conference, 'we know our players best'). So it is very possible these health/reliability issues were factors in the decision to DFA both Carp & Kelly

Shedding this talent shows GMZ's thought process in the Upton trade. We may not agree with the individual prospects offered for Upton, but the process was clearly Stars and Scrubs. Right now, given our plethora of prospects, I would seriously "overpay" for Stanton rather than simply lose talent via the DFA route.

for Stanton. I think just about everyone agrees. Miami has to still and MLB will have to sign off on the deal.
If not Stanton, hopefully there's other names close to that level that we can start talking about around late June. I'd personally be as happy to overpay for Billy Hamilton, since they're transitioning him to CF but I doubt that's even an option. MOTO corner or CF leadoff type are the only big needs I see for the team next year and beyond. Leadoff at SS would work too, but there are some options already here that don't profile well for leading off. Maybe Landry looks like a leadoff guy for 2015, but that isn't a reason to not improve for now.
Having too much isn't bad, the point is using what you have and not wasting it. Consolidation is a definite key to maximizing 40 man talent moving forward.
I wouldn't be surprised if they traded away 2 starting pitchers by the deadline. Even in March, I could see a move. There's just too many to use them all. It's not a DFA issue, but a 25 man issue. One or 2 can go to the pen, one or 2 can be stashed at AAA. The bullpen is pretty stocked, so it's probably only one there as long man. That could even be Bonderman or Garland though. That would be consistent with how they broke in Iwakuma and even Erasmo last year. They also could both go to AAA since they signed on MiL deals. Considering a long man in Seattle and 2 in Tacoma that leaves 13 spots for hopeful starters. Competition for those spots are Felix, Iwakuma, Saunders, Ramirez, Beaven, Noesi, Paxton, Hultzen, Maurer, Walker, Bonderman, Garland, Carraway, Vasquez, Anthony Fernandez. I count 15 players for those 13 spots without counting any org. filler. You could argue Vasquez is filler based on his MLB debut audition and stats since then, but I'd argue that he has upside based on his talent and age in his pitcher family. An injury or 2 would thin this, but the 2nd long man or even 5th starter in Tacoma is where the 3rd or 4th starter removed from this list would leave an opening.

Brown is a lottery ticket, but still worth the overpay (IMHO), since we have to prune anyway. Stanton would be the Publisher's Clearing House at the door. Even if we gave up, say, Morales, Guti, Seager (to get MLBPA off Loria's case by picking up members, but Morales and Guti are 1 year commit that may fire his demographic), plus several non-40 but ranked prospects, plus 2 of the pitchers (Erasmo + Fernandez/Elias to appeal to the demographic?) and got Stanton and LoMo (if Morales can hold up at 1st for them) for the pile, we'd still be ahead, because we need the prune and Stanton would put us easily into the Rangers/Angels class in talent. While their talent is 32+, we would LOWER our avg. roster age!
If we got those three for ~ 6 40-man players and 3 lower 'spects, we would have 7 of BA's 2010 top 30 -- Stanton #3, Montero #4, Ackley #11, Smoak #13, Brown #15, Morrison #20, and MSaunders #30. While only Stanton has PROVED himself so far, the case can easily be made for each of the rest blossoming this year.

in this blogosphere the last 15 years, but this actually seems doable at least as a starting point for negotiations. We can dream but this makes sense too.
7 hitters of the top 30 overall (? is that right) from 4 years back is insanity! I say 4 years assuming that's not completed until next offseason. If that's together for a playoff run, whoo boy. Also that's assuming Smoak is what he looked like in September, otherwise he may be in the package instead of Morales or otherwise no longer with the M's. Those 7 would be covering every position but catcher (Zunino) or DH depending where Montero is then, 3b and SS where Franklin is a current top 50 on some lists. 9 starters as recent top 50 guys? Only if we moved Morrison to 3b. If the outfield is Stanton, Saunders and Brown, 1b Smoak then Morrison is DH/1b/OF. Zunino and Montero need more AB than what would remain at catcher, but maybe there'd be just enough to make it work with moving Morrison around. Considering all of that I'd probably rather have a 3b than one of Morrison/Brown. Also everything but 3b is pretty locked up without having a leadoff guy. All these Figgins reminders...Screw Figgins for falling because he could have worked well for even this idea. And we should still have a leadoff guy.
The idea even seems to be exactly Zduriencik s MO as well. These are the type of guys he seems to go after anyway.

Answer here, Rick:
http://marinerstalk.com/article/spectometer-stack-thames-vs-wells-vs-carp

Unfortunately it looks like the Brewers just lost another 1st baseman to injury - both Gamel and Hart have knee injuries. And reportedly the Brewers don't have a lot of depth at that position, so maybe Carp can find a home and playing time in Milwaukee.

But that's a very likely landing spot for him, in exchange for another non-40-man player. I expect to see something done on that today - he's good insurance to have.
And I hope for his sake he gets a good long look and turns into another Morse. Which will suck for us, unless Smoak removes head from sphincter, but such is life. Justin, I have believed in you for several years now - put it together man!!
~G

Revise my previous post. Looks like the Blue Jays just lost their first baseman David Cooper and with Lind being somewhat ineffective, I think with all Toronto has done this offseason to make themselves into a contender and having 1st base being a real weak spot in their line up. I'm guessing they will be in the thick of it, in regards to trading for Mike Carp.
Nonetheless, there looks to be at least a minor market building for our DFA'd first baseman, so hopefully Z will be able to get something of a little more value than is customary in these circumstances.