Seattle Sports Insider

Dumpster Diving in Stars & Scrubs

Hey! 3/4 of a tuna sandwich in here, and hardly been touched!

Posted by

2/8/13

jellison sez,

.

The thought occurred to me, and is noted on another site, in the context of the trade for Morales the acquisition of Saunders is rather interesting. If Vargas and Saunders are viewed as interchangeable (both in performance and salary), and Saunders was available to any team willing to pull the trigger, why did the Angels trade Morales for talent they could have acquired without the loss of Morales? Either

(i) the premise of Vargas and Saunders being interchangeable is fundamentally flawed,

(ii) the market expectations for Saunders' contract changed dramatically between December and February, or

(iii) the Angels made a fundamental strategic error. I would be interested in knowing your thoughts. Did the Mariners just acquire Morales for free?

Thank you ::: jimcarreyriddler :::

The logic is impeccable, Surak, and I'd plump for point (ii) above.

..............

Precisely the operating advantage to Stars and Scrubs - that the lower players can be replaced by the adroit waiver-wire scrounger. The quintessential Stars & Scrubs roto championship is poached by trading Seager, Ryan, and Ackley for Justin Verlander ... and then going to the waiver wire* and finding Seager again for pennies on the dollar.

Lather, rinse, repeat. The Stars & Scrubs owner is always pushing talent UP the roster ladder, shoving a couple of 2-WAR players into a 3.5-WAR rung by making a trade, and then going back to the garden to grow more 2-WAR players on the cheap.

The mathematical idea of "replacement level player" does not capture the concept of shedding a Jason Vargas and re-acquiring a Joe Saunders at low cost.

...........

There is a HUGE paradigm problem here: Fangraphs thinking (no slight intended) has it that Jason Vargas has a "correct" valuation. GM's, and Dr. D, don't think that way.

If you and I are playing roto, I want to know which of your players you value at 90c while I value them at $1.10. We can trade -- AND MAKE A FAIR, WIN-WIN trade -- once we figure out who we value differently.

The Angels value Vargas at $1.10. We value him at $0.90. That's not an error; that's what makes a ball game. Let's find out who the better stockbroker is, on this stock sector. Fangraphs amigos are thinking in terms of "somebody made a mistake here, and we'll find out who it was." Not at all!

Predicting the future is an art form. One man's good; another man is great. That's what we're going to find out on Vargas vs Saunders.

............

As to the other question, Kendrys Morales although a fine ballplayer had practically zero value to the Angels. Hamilton and Pujols replaced him and he's a 1-year guy with Boras as his agent. They'd have been fine to DFA him.

The Angels got back Jason Vargas, who may well re-up with them, and they feel they got a pretty good 200-inning starter. Sweet!

............

The mystery to me, is why Joe Saunders was valued as low as he was. Talk about your dumpster diving.

I've got no idea WHY Saunders was so undervalued -- in my opinion, that is. BaseballHQ had his Base Performance Value at 71 (!) last season, after years in the 20's. Whether you buy in or not, there's no way he should have been valued that low, not in my book anyway.

PHX Terry follows on,

.

Same point applied to Jaso vs Morse + Shoppach.

Very interesting point about acquiring Morales for free. Certainly looks that way to me. A similar point can be raised in the Jaso/Morse/Shoppach deal. If Shoppach is deemed in an overall sense to be the equivalent of Jaso (leaving aside the number of years under contract), did GMZ essentially just acquire Morse for free?

HERE IS THE POINT THAT ESCAPES PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT PLAYED ROTO. These amazing dumpster dives -- hey, 3/4 of a tuna sandwich, hardly been touched! -- were there.

This really was a classic Roto offseason by Zduriencik. He wanted Hamilton. Didn't get him. He shuffled the 3-card monte around and he made his team better - a lot better. Using absolutely vintage Stars & Scrubs logic.

...............

The M's, in effect, paid 25c on the dollar for Saunders and Shoppach, if you compare those two players to Vargas and Jaso (who became Morse).

[Vargas - Saunders delta] vs [Morales] = 25c
[Jaso - Shoppach delta] vs [Morse] = 25c

But you are not in position to GRAB Shoppach, and Bazooka Joe, if your roster has 25 Civics. You're only in position to GRAB those dumpster sandwiches if you've emptied your roster by trading Civics for Stars. You clear parking slots by trading 3-for-1 and getting the best player back. Then the nice cars come by and you park them.

This is the big reason that we talk past each other, on the value of a Prince Fielder.

The hidden benefits to Stars & Scrubs don't have any columns on Fangraphs. But you, gentlemen, just had a living illustration of it. Here are your #3 and #4 hitters, at the cost of very minimal deltas at C #2 and SP #4, because of Zduriencik's Stars and Scrubs shell game.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

maybe the answer is (ii) & (iii)

It does make the Angels look silly, no? Even if Morales had no value to them, he would have been valuable to any team looking for a first baseman. Wouldn't that have included the Redsox and the Nationals, among others, at the time of the Morales trade? What would Morales have been worth in prospects from another club? Why should the Angels waste Morales, when they could eat their cake and have it too?
From the M's perspective it all makes sense. Morales was something not available to the Ms in the open market.
From the Angels' perspective it just doesn't (in terms of how things turned out). It seems like a rather costly mistake on their part.

You mean that they could have had Bazooka Joe?

Because Morales for Vargas, in a vacuum, doesn't look very silly -- Vargas was worth $9-10M in each of seasons 2010 and 2011, and has had a 2+ ERA (?) against the Angels, pitching well in their park IIRC.
But yeah, "selecting" Vargas over Bazooka Joe seems an obvious whhhooooooopsie. Good point jellison.
There are several possible explanations - maybe Saunders burned his bridges leaving, or they have propietary info on Saunders that makes them bearish, or something.
No doubt about one thing: from our point of view, Saunders and Morales vs. Vargas?! Commissioner is calling to overturn the deal....

My vote is (ii) - Saunders lost value

The Angels didn't DFA Morales; they used him to plug a hole in their starting rotation with a reliable 200-innings LH pitcher who had killed them in 2012. In my view, Saunders would not have accepted a 1-yr, $7M deal in December. GMZ won this round, in my opinion, by being patient in the off-season and, as Jeff says, to "dumpster dive while playin Stars & Scrubs." It appears that the Angels were anxious to improve their pitching early in the off season and did not wait for below-market opportunities to develop just before ST began. GMZ tried the same patient approach last year with Prince Fielder, and might have succeeded if Detroit hadn't swooped in and paid a premium price at the last minute. My $.02.

Oh be joyful

I see in the Shout Box that Thirteen reports Saunders deal is worth $6.5 M + $1M in incentives. Just slightly less than Vargas is going to be paid by the Angels ($8.5 M) in a deal made to avoid arbitration.
I believe that Angels fans ought to be upset about this. Very upset.
I am experiencing schadenfreude. Well, not so much shame.

Hold the Phone a Minute . . .

I have not weighed in on the Jaso for Morse trade till now but I have watched the team and bloggers underestimate Jaso's value by saying he was just a "role player" or "part time player." He may have been a role player but he played a role we could find no one else to do since who? John Olerud?
How long have we been wanting lefty bats that could play well at Safeco? Sure we have had many lefty bats but most have not been able to figure out Safeco better than most righties, or could not stay healthy (Branyan). Jaso had a .877 OPS at Safeco and a .927 OPS against right handers. His OBP, which is the more important component of OPS, in those situations was .408 and .419 respectively. And he did this while providing the capability to play catcher allowing us to plug in some one else at DH if Wedge would choose to do so. Despite the hype, Montero has not yet proven that he is anything but a platoon player. He has also not proven that he is any better at catching than Jaso.
LL showed how Jaso was quite competent against left handers in the minors. Beane will be laughing all the way to the post season if he turns out to be a competent catcher with a plus bat in his line up. Sure Zunino is on his way but if I were Eric Wedge I would have found a way to keep Jaso in the line up every game against right handed pitchers for the net three years.
Judging by what Oakland gave up, we could have traded with the Nats leaving out Oakland by giving up a comparable package of minor leaguers. That would also have played into the stars and scrubs philosophy without making a division rival better. Now we have a player instead who previously was caught using PED's (Morse).
And don't forget in your equation that we are also dumping Shawn Kelley to make room for Saunders. Bill James projects Kelley to have the best ERA of all our relievers.
Frankly I am a bit tired of Wedge giving veterans months of playing time to prove that they can no longer play, while classifying some younger less proven players based on a small sample size (Jaso, Kelley, Wells, etc.) Jack Z seems to go with Wedge's judgements to much in dumping players.
Despite all the seeming negativity I mostly like Jack Z's off season. Bringing Back Iwakuma for a reasonable price was big. i like bringing back Perez as well. The host of one year deals tells the young players that if the work hard this year they can be a starter next year if not later in the year. I am happy we kept our minor leaguers and draft picks. But the loss of Jaso still stings.
I hope we do not dump any more of our depth before spring training. The chances of some one on our 25 man roster getting injured during spring training are pretty good. Keep Wells, Carp, and our pitching depth until the end of spring training if at all possible. All we will get if we trade them are Luke French,Chih-Hsien Chiang type players back.

Where's option (iv)?

Where is option (iv) - Perhaps the blogosphere owes Jack Zduriencik an apology?
There is an option for Anaheim goofed, but not one for Seattle was shrewd.
Morales + Saunders - Vargas seems to have improved the ballclub much more than any calculated differential between Jaso and Morse. Only Jack Z (and perhaps other GM's) can honestly say what the market for each of the Mariners' players is, and what realistic contribution each player can make to the team when all variables, internal and external to the clubhouse, are taken into account.
By the other blogs' own admission, in all likelihood Morse 2013 WAR = Jaso 2013 WAR, and that value is taken before any knowledge on injury, clubhouse issues et al., are taken into account. Who knows how much playing time Jaso will get in Oakland and whether he can sustain his success? Who knows whether or not Morse will return to 2011 levels? I don’t. There are dozens of variables that us outsiders are not even aware of.
It seems likely that Jack took a look at the market, his roster, his clubhouse, and the available players, and made a dispassionate assessment of a solid course of action. Look, we all wanted Josh Hamilton. For one reason or another, he didn’t want to sign here. You can’t old that against Jack Z.
Jack trades away a fan favorite and SABR darling and instantly loses credibility, inciting people to say that “perhaps he’s just an excellent developer of talent, but is overmatched as an overall GM”. How does this move not instantly put that notion to rest? By all means that are apparent to those not in the inner circle or GM’s, Jack Z has at best pulled a free cleanup hitter out of thin air, or at worst has solidly outmaneuvered the GM of a team that won 89 games last season. And that’s speaking strictly from the flawed WAR/$ paradigm.
Additionally, all this is before taking into account whether Vargas’ performance will drop away from Safeco and Saunders’ potential boost from moving away from AZ & Baltimore and into Seattle.
He may not be the best GM, but he is certainly not overmatched relative to other GM’s in the league. No way.

Jaso

Hit and Run,
I think the Jaso move will look like a Stars&Scrubs move once Zunino is promoted, even if it doesn't in the very short term.

Key: Competent Catcher

The M's brass simply didn't accept Jaso as a competent catcher. That's the whole point behind the move.

(ii)-(iv)

Dr. Nietzche,
I agree. Getting Morales for merely the cost of his contract is pretty darned shrewd. After all, that which does not cost us makes us stronger. I don't need to tell you.

Z and Leverage

I love Z's refusal to give in. I bet the suits LOVE it more than I do.
With such a strong farm, Z no longer has to work at plugging holes in the org with the likes of Chone Figgins, Branyan, Guti, or Beaven. He has built the floor and no longer has to worry about losing 90 games.
I looove his flexibility and his refusal to, for example, plug the gaping hole in the rotation after Vargas with a #4 demanding 4/52 or Dempster or Sanchez $.
Z's adroit drafts afford him the option to wait this long in the offseason for Saunders or whoever. I dig it. Nuts to Washburn/Bautista/H, Ramirez - those days are over.
Atlanta/St Louis with a 100-125 mil payroll? Sign me up!

My read on this now...

...is that Z will have more payroll whenever he actually manages to sign someone he actually wants. They were willing to sign both Napoli and Hamilton at the same time...to do so while extending Felix would have cost far more than what we're paying now. But the bigwigs would have given it to him. In this context, it now makes sense when he says "whether it's this year or next or the year after, I will have the resources I need"...that means "when I can convince a star player to sign on the dotted line...they'll finance it because they trust my judgment"

Branyan redux

Why the Angels went with Vargas over Saunders "seems" to clearly be a case of contract years.
Has everyone forgotten when Branyan was demanding a multi-year and Z refused to give in. What happened? Z goes out and gets Kotchman ... because he needed to fill the slot ... he had no team controlled bodies as a fall back ... and he wasn't willing to be patient (having no fallback), in hopes that nobody would come up with the extra years for Branyan. The fact Branyan returned fairly screams the choice was not a diss of Branyan's ability - but of his demands.
Look at the FA SP market. It's Death Valley. If the Angels wait and Saunders actually gets a 3 year from somebody in February BEFORE the Angels plug that hole, then the cost the Angels MUST pay to plug that hole jumps. Remember, part of the value equation is "how much does a team NEED your commodity?"
Z is in a perfect negotiating spot precisely because he has a the Brady Bunch of young arms sitting in AAA ready to move to the big time next week.
Z was in a position where he COULD deal Vargas and "worst case" he is "forced" to move Hultzen or Paxton or Maurer, etc., etc., into the lineup a month or two earlier than he might like - oh darn. Instead, he waits out the competition, until Saunders sees the pool of suitors vanish and it is Saunders that caves and lowers his demands.
The Angels NEVER had a choice of Vargas or Saunders. They had a choice of Vargas - this instant - or maybe Saunders later - or maybe nothing at all later.
Likely that the Angels would have been fine with Saunders (given the deal he signed) ... if that had been avvailable 4 weeks ago. It wasn't. Ironically, the very move they made to get Vargas, (removing themselves from the Saunders speculators list), was one of the variables that forced Saunders to lower his demads and allow Z to sign him. (I'm pretty sure that Z was aware of the implications at the time).

King's Court $$$

Someone in the comments of that Cameron Fangraphs piece ran the #s and Felix home starts drew 24K paid attendance vs 20K for all other games last year. And that is surely understated as there are plenty of those base 20K ticket holders who actually show up for Felix games and spend on concessions, parking, etc, when they would just stay home for some non-Felix games. So do the math and you can add back $2-4M a year in profits against Felix's $27M...or just add half a WAR if you prefer it that way.

Agree on GMZ's Competence at Trading

I personally am tired of all the "experts" in the M's blogosphere who are quick to slam GMZ's trades (e.g., Jaso trade, Upton trade) without taking a single second to try to understand his motives. For too many, the reflex response is that GMZ is stupid, incompetent, good at drafting only, etc. I find those responses arrogant, and they reveal more about the arm chair experts than they do about GMZ's trading ability. I enjoy this site because the first response to a GMZ trade is always to try to understand the reasons for Jack's moves, instead of instantly passing judgment. How conveniently the arm chair critics forget that Jack stole Jaso in 2011 trade with supposedly the best-managed team in baseball!

Yeah, what Sandy said, mostly likely it is (ii)

Sandy,
Thanks. That analysis makes perfect sense. Morales was the price for certainty in filling the missing piece of the Angel's rotation, and Z exploited his advantage for all it was worth. The simple truth was that the Angels were never in a position to eat their cake and have it too.
Still, I do hope they suffer for it.

I crunched the numbers

The average person actually in attendance at a Mariners game spends 92 dollars on the combination of food and ticket and parking. Families of four spend $248 between 'em (a little less per person because you can bulk-buy the parking and the tickets come with deals some games).
Most of the extras who go to Felix starts are singles filling up the outfield King's Court pavilion area. But let's assume the net gain is only 4 grand per start in people and that each spends $75 and that King Felix makes about 18 home starts per year (81 / 5 = 16, but they seem to like to get Felix a few extra starts compared to the other options).
4,000 * $75 * 18 = $5,400,000
So Felix' contract actually costs us about 22 mil per year. :) That's assuming he stays healthy and remains a draw.