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Feb. 7th Tomorrow's News Today Update: Nightengale says 7 years, $175M.
Dr. D bracketed the extension at 5/$125M if Felix was feeling like Abraham Lincoln, or 7/$200M if he was feeling a little more assertive. In either case, he's worth far more.
At 7/$175M, the Mariners get a pretty screamin' deal on the salary -- nine years from now, $25M per year for Christy Mathewson will be wayyyyyyy low. Felix did get the more years rather than the fewer, but then again, it's hard to speak of it as a loss for fans, that Felix is positioned to go into the HOF in an M's cap. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, ARod.
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Edit again to say, the 7 years *replaces* his current deal, so we're at what, 5 years, $135M. Yowza.
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=== Talking Points ===
Dr. D has, for some reason that he cannot begin to comprehend, never gotten emotionally attached to Felix. Nobody in Seattle likes Felix any less than Dr. D does. That means for me, on a scale of 1-10, Felix rates about a 6 or 7 on the Likeliest To Own Some Dude's Jersey meter. I bought jerseys for Jack Wilshere and Santi Cazorla; I won't get Felix'. I enjoy watching Wilshere and Cazorla perform more than I do Felix, and I'm a pretty casual soccer fan.
I have no idea why. Felix is one of the most likeable athletes you'll ever see. His game, the five pretzel pitches he throws, is very enjoyable to watch. He's been ours since he was 16. Explain to me why I could take him or leave him, somebody.
Point is, I'm not biased in his favor. Not at all. If we traded him for Giancarlo Stanton, even steven, I'd be pleased.
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With Stars & Scrubs, you save money on Scrubs SO THAT you can buy Stars at fair-market prices.
A rotisserie champion saves a buck here, a buck there, SO THAT he can have five Felices going against his opponent's four.
Point is, whatever Felix costs, $25 mill, $30 mill, $35 mill (because of inflation), just pay it. The rest of your decisions are made AROUND that. Felix' salary is the given in this roster equation, you feel me? Move on. Wrestle with other problems after you put that one in the bank.
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The Mariners just offered Josh Hamilton $25M x 4 years. Josh Hamilton's value, compared to Felix', is absolutely laughable. To the Mariners especially!
Felix' value to the Mariners is logically, inescapably, far in excess of $25M and far in excess of 4 years' term.
Years don't matter to the fan or the club here; they only matter to the player. If Felix is healthy in five years, he's going to re-up anyway. A million here, a million there, the cost savings in Year 6 is not significant when compared to the overshadowing factor of an injury that makes the entire contract an albatross.
Point is, the Mariners need to (half-heartedly) hold Felix' requests to the minimum possible, and then they need to just pay it. You as a Mariner fan are (half-heartedly) wanting to hear that the Mariners paid fewer years, and fewer dollars, as opposed to more years and more dollars. If Felix were to take a 3-year extension, that's the announcement that would be the best-case for you as a fan. He'll sign another one after that.
Every indication is that Felix won't exploit his value to the full. You're not talking about a Scott Boras situation here. Whew.
So you as the discerning SSI consumer can relax and wait for the 5-years-vs-7-years announcement. If you hear that Felix took 5 years and $125M, you won big. If you hear that it took 7 years and $200M, shrug, see previous talking point, you win not so big. You hear anything other than Felix extension, you lose, but that's not likely enough to even worry about.
You hear Felix for Stanton and three prospects, you also win... wait, that's me, not you. :- )
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All aircraft carrier SP's -- Verlander, Sabathia, etc -- pose a health risk. But contenders have them. You don't get to bring knives to gunfights, not unless you want your 95-loss entrails all over your shoes.
The Felixes, and Sabathias, and Verlanders, the big bubbas with easy velocity and sky-high K rates, pose less health risk than other pitchers do. James proved a long time ago that as K rates go up, DL rates go down.
BaseballHQ wrung its hands a little this year over Felix' loss of velocity. What they overlooked is that, with Felix' pretzel pitches, he's an ace whatever his velocity. He proved that last year.
The point is, Felix is very safe, relative to other SP's such as Jered Weaver, Danny Haren, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum*, Gio Gonazlez, etc. He's a big hoss who doesn't even need the hossiness to win Cy Youngs. The hossiness is just buffer territory between him and the danger zone.
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One of Dr. D's most sour sports memories, the Mariners flatly turning down Randy Johnson's request for 3 years, $27M. And Dr. D missed out on his rightful place in the third deck, spectating the career of one of baseball's twenty greatest all-time legends.
It was the local version of Boston's sale of Babe Ruth in 1919. And it can realistically be compared to even that tragedy; Johnson was as great a figure in modern baseball as any Babe Ruth could ever be in today's game.
Whatever you do can get you killed, including AND ESPECIALLY being too chickenfeathers. But obviously the Mariners are not going to repeat this mistake.
Point is, you've got a 300-game winner here, the decade's version of Roger Clemens and Tom Seaver. Those guys weren't any better than Felix.
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Most great pitchers really feed off one or two pitches that are truly scary. Pedro Martinez had three of them.
Felix legitimately has four; this is almost unique in baseball history. You could not tell me whether Felix' 89 dry spitter is more deadly than his 83 yellow hammer than his 86 vertical "slider." (The other historical pitcher who comes to mind is a contemporary, Justin Verlander.)
And last year he introduced a pitch that could be worse than any of them: the Mariano Rivera cut fastball.
Point is, Felix is authentically a historically-great pitcher, and will be great going forward. When he throws a perfect game, it's not about luck. It's about a slaughter going on out there.
Like Pedro, Felix doesn't walk anybody if he chooses not to ... maybe he will throw six perfect games. ::shrug:: What are your odds on his throwing one in 2013?
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There is nothing in Major League Baseball that is more deliciously Stars and Scrubs than the aircraft-carrier Opening Day Starter. For me that's the most important, and hardest to get, piece of a baseball dynasty. Felix Hernandez is the baseball version of Russell Wilson.
Remember back when the Mariners could go toe-to-toe with contenders? Lou Piniella would schedule his rotations so that Randy Johnson could start series, especially on the road. If the Mariners are ever going bare-knuckle again, Felix Hernandez will be there to give us dominance in many, many Big Weekend Series.
I forget. Did Felix win four 1-0 games last year? Like against NYY, Bos, and Tex, and including the perfecto?
Jack Zduriencik has been 100% decisive from day one. Felix isn't going to be cashed in; he's going to be the pitcher the Mariners build around. You can be sure that they understand the fact that they have to give Felix what he wants, so polish up your Felix dance.
Point is, we got the #1 SP, the monster righty who gets you 17-20 wins in March. Let's get goin' on the rest of the travelin' squad.
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