1
Probably the deal won't even go through for all we know but .... hey, this is baseball chat, is all.
Anybody want to pencil a LH/RH lineup with Morales DH, Upton RF and Morse 1B? :- )
Paxton, Franklin, Furbush and Pryor?
Lots of WAR going out, but much of it redundant
Q. Paxton*, Franklin, Furbush and Pryor?
A. The DBacks should be DDEEEEEEE-LIGHTED with that return. Man, if I were dealing a problem attitude for a rebuild ... two big time ML-ready blue chippers, one arm and one bat, AND two 10-strikeout ML relievers. KA-CHING baby!
Furbush and Pryor is one thumb to each eye, but can you hold up your blockbuster over middle relievers, when you've got pitchers coming out your ears?
Super impressed if that's what the DBacks did, squeeze the sponge to get those two middle relievers that the M's can't afford to argue about.
.
Q. Earlier you called Franklin your fave trade chip.
A. Nick Franklin has become the single trade chip who was most superfluous, since according to Geoffy the Mariners have Brad Miller pencilled in at SS. He is both (1) hyper-talented and (2) crowded out in Seattle.
And giving up one of the Big Three ... Big Four now, right, with Erasmo? We talk all the time about this: only 25 men go on a roster at once. You have GOT to take into account that players 26-150 are wasted horsepower.
This part of it would be sweet like ice cream, dealing players #25, #26 and #27 for your franchise right fielder. It would be different if you were coughing up Seager and didn't know who was playing 3B, or coughing up Montero and afraid you were losing Pujols.
.
Q. You still don't want to throw out talent.
A. We don't say that you stop worrying about talent if you've got three players all doing the same thing. But you certainly do want to include this variable in your equation. If the talent going out were NOT redundant, then what? It could be that Felix Hernandez' net performance value, going forward and adjusted for salary, is lower than that of [Paxton Franklin Furbush Pryor]. But none of Felix' value is redundant against anybody's.
Acquiring Justin Upton would not be "throwing out" talent, and let's keep in mind that ML-ready prospects have seen their value tumble this offseason. Paxton, Franklin, Furbush, Pryor, that's a whale of a lot of talent, but if you get the guy you want you have not created one hole to fill another.
The point is, this one isn't as simple as "we get 15 WAR and they get 22 WAR." Some of the 22 WAR that the M's give up is redundant performance. It's a complex variable to take into account -- how would player #21 overlap against player #23. The M's give up tons of WAR, but then again, much of that WAR is occurring in places where you wouldn't be able to use it anyway.
.
Q. Bottom line?
A. I'd give the DBacks a golfclap for realizing they had me over a barrel on the relievers. But I guess if I were bullish on Upton, then yeah.
There's the kid I want to build around, and I didn't really hit my 25-man roster to get him. In the big picture, that was my goal.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
2
Now THAT is just silly greedy. :) I love it.
Trade Smoak to the Red Sox for a prospect pitcher.
Carp is powerflushed...sad, but necessary.
Saunders is your CF, Gutierrez is now a very expensive fourth outfielder.
Ibanez is a championship caliber bench bat...we don't have a lead-off hitter with that roster, but I guess the closest thing to it would be Saunders?
vs RHP
CF) Saunders
2B) Ackley
DH) Morales
RF) Upton
1B) Morse
C) Montero/Jaso
3B) Seager
LF) Ibanez/GUtierrez if you need OF defense
SS) Ryan/Andino
vs LHP
SS) Ryan (he kills lefties by his standards and draws lots of walks)
LF/CF) Gutierrez (also a lefty-killer)
RF) Upton
1B) Morse
C) Montero (never Jaso here)
DH) Morales
CF) Saunders/LF) Bay (a heck of a fifth outfielder, actually, if he has any of his form back...if not...make it Wells)
3B) Seager
2B) Ackley
That line-up may actually be GOOD. Against both sides? Really??
3
I was thinking this was a possibility, and Jason Churchill confirms it by mentioning that the Mariners could also receive a second player, which would change the complexion of the deal a little further toward the Mariners. It would make sense as 3 out of 4 players in the deal are on the Mariners 40 Man Roster.
4
Was that really our offer? I just read a report that Upton turned down a trade to Seattle. If that was what we offered, then I'm glad he did so, I think. Hmmmmmmm......I think I want to keep Paxton. I know that it's a dice roll on whether Hultzen or Walker or Paxton is THE GUY, but I can't help thinking that Paxton will be really good for some decent MLB stretch.
Furbish and Pryor = decent pieces, but ones that we can live without, certainly. I like Franklin a lot and would love to see him in a Mariner uni for a long time...but he's our best chit. He probably goes in a trade. But I'm a bit at sea on giving up Paxton.
An Upton signing also presages the next move, as there must be one. Bay we can just jettison. But Guti/Saunders/Wells/Raul is one guy too many. Would Z just swallow Raul's cash...or could he really find a swap for him at this point? I can't see too many buyers for Guti, either.
So...if there is another swap to follow, it would be interesting to see what that one looked like...before I absolutely put the kabosh to the trade.
Here's the deal. Does three years of Upton put us over the top and into the playoffs? It must for that trade to make sense.
My bet is that the trade is not dead yet....probably hanging on year #4...or 5. But I can live without this trade. Make it Hultzen...and I could bite.
He's pretty guys...just not that pretty. And I'm not sure he's special enough to put you over the top. I think it's better than 50/50 that you could get Upton-like numbers form a judicious platoon of the guys we already have.
I'll bet we change his mind, though.
moe
5
For some reason everyone is ignoring that there may have been another piece from AZ in the deal. I understand that everyone wants to be firm on their opinion and a "maybe"detail makes that difficult, but most of the details are speculative in this situation. Who would even be another piece from Arizona?
I certainly can't give a firm opinion without knowing:
1: entire packages from both sides. I don't think we do and we may never.
2: the true reason Upton declined the trade. I can speculate many things here. We all could. Money on the deal, years, next deal timing, park factor possibly hurting his next deal, buddy Adam Jones said some things about a Front office and coaching staff that are long gone...
3: What contract adjustments were offered by the M's and whether Upton's camp pushed for specifics on negotiating with the Ms or just vetoed in general.
All we have is speculation on those specifics and this math problem is not solvable without more of them.
The general thrust of the deal I understand (assuming it's 4 for one) that's it's a big overpay. I also think that the mariners have a ridiculously easier time getting pitching in their uniforms than established hitting. If your sticking point revolves around how much you like Franklin, I could understand that. If you wouldn't do the trade generally being discussed because you're not convinced Upton would do well enough here, consider the other options. I'm not talking about potential options. If Stanton were available do you think we'd be reading about an overpay for Upton or Stanton? To me it seems the other options are more linked to waiting and hoping, which is a dangerous move. Wait and hope the team does well enough this year that free agents consider it a better destination in just one year. Hope that we are the team that gets Stanton if he's moved in the next year.
If you wouldn't do the deal based on one prospect pitcher I don't think I could agree with that either. I only say prospect because I'd understand not doing it if Felix were involved. The avoidance of Seattle by free agent hitters needs to come to an end at some point. I think we could sign a top tier pitcher next year, anybody confident we could actually ink a top tier hitter? I'm not. At all...
I say all that because different reported packages cover all of Walker, Hultzen and Paxton potentially being in the deal and to me no one of them would stop my interest in the deal going down.
6
Article on "we were overpaying" and a discussion of Upton's talent level: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/32035/mariners-shouldnt-over...
The problem with having as much talent as we have now is that we'll ALWAYS be "overpaying" in future trades while simultaneously being blocked on prospects at certain positions.
If we keep Franklin and Ackley and Seager, then where do Marder and Miller play?
If we keep Jaso and Montero and let them catch, then what about Zunino and Hicks?
If we move Saunders to a permanent corner OF position to get Morban in the lineup in a couple of years (or vice versa - Morban might be like Cargo as a nominal CFer) then whither Landry, or McGee, or whomever?
Let's say we re-sign Felix. Woot! We'll also have 5-7 years of E-Ram, Paxton, Hultzen, Walker... and we just ran out of starting spots for every other pitcher currently in the system. Maybe we'd just trade em one by one, or clear out the backlog like the As do with their Harangs and whatnot.
Ackley's not a FA til 2018. Maybe we won't pay all his various arb increases, as well as those of all the rest of his young teammates, so we'd need some other talent available in about 4 years. Not coincidentally, we just drafted a 3B, a SS and a pure 2B this year, as well as a SS last year, all teens. We're planning the next wave. Between that wave and the current players is where the overflow comes in.
------------------------------
As Doc said, there are only 25 roster spots. Having tremendous players at 26-35 is nice, but only useful if you lose one of the 25 to a snowmobiling accident. You want the best 25 man roster you can get, even if you have to trade more aggregate talent than you get back.
You don't want it to come to that - but it's a side-effect of being good at minor league farming. And if another team won't give up their Stanton for your minor league treasure trove, then you'd better figure something else out. Not to throw away talent, but to give it up for the right pieces that will improve your major league team.
In a vacuum, Upton doesn't thrill me. I don't think he's a game-changer by himself, but as a tipping point to help the offense fill up with productive hitters? He's at least intriguing. Oakland signed some kid named Cespedes, got a couple of awesome half-seasons from bats (like we got with Jaso) and did well enough to compensate for THREE black holes, run an average offense, and back their phenomenal (mostly rookie) performances from the mound.
If we can run a league-average offense next year and deploy the pitching, good things could happen. If a couple more of the young bats take off, we could get really interesting.
But as a GM, you have to figure out how to get that to happen. Upton wasn't Plan A, but he's *a* plan. If his mind is set on not coming here, though, then we need to move on to yet another plan.
~G
7
My view on Upton is this:
Career OPS:
Home:.937
Road: .731
Let's say ... for grins and gigles, Upton increases his road OPS by 30 points ... say .760.
What is he going to hit in Safeco? .660? .620?
While the stands have been moved, NOBODY knows the impact that will have just yet. But, IMO, the odds that the change will turn the death-to-RH-bats park into anything remotely close to Arizona is absolute fantasy.
A .760 / .660 combo is only a .710 hitter. If he does NOT improve in his gravy years, then .730/.630 for a .680 bat is the outcome. And he's slightly below replacement level as glove.
IMO, Carp, who has already posted a .791 OPS for Seattle in his one extended stint of healthy PT is VASTLY more likely to be an .800 OPS bat in Seattle than Upton ever would be.
Me? I'm skeptical about Upton having an age 25-28 spike, because I see no evidence of improvement or really attempting to improve. He's basically the same hitter he was 4 years ago. Same eye. Same power, (forgiving the down 2012 campaign), same average.
Players do not get better BECAUSE they age. They get better because they improve something. There's nothing in the Upton background that suggests he's interested in improving anything.
I know many want to believe the park changes are a panacea. But, honestly, does ANYONE believe the park changes are going to turn a .730 hitter into a .930 hitter? Unless Arizona includes its air in the deal, it was a highly risky play with (IMHO), a lot more downside than upside.
8
Justin Upton was in AA at age 19, in Mobile, where he proceeded to hit .309/.399/.556 with 13 HR and 37 walks in 71 games. No desert air in Mobile, that I know of.
Do you know how rare it is for a player to even be in AA at 19? how rare it is for anyone to slug .556 in any minor league?
How did he manage to slug .521 on the road in 2009?
Nothing about Upton's stats indicate to me that he's a mediocrity artificially propped up by Arizona.
Everything says that he's a monster talent, but whatever things have been holding him back are more acute when he's on the road.
I'm a Carp fan, but the idea that Mike Carp ought to out-hit Upton is not something I see at all.
9
Matt Holliday played in a ridiculous environment at Coors field.
His home OPS: 1.077 in Coors, lifetime (!)
Road #s by year: .654, .729, .819, .860
So steadily improving, but still not beautiful.
His H/R Splits the last 3 years in a very different park in St. Louis:
.934/.909
.898/.927
.884/.871
Much better than his Road #s in Coors. Now maybe he just hadn't grown into himself yet. Matt Holliday didn't get to the bigs til he was 24, so maybe his growth curve is different than Upton's. Upton has HUGE splits so far in his career.
Why? Bad road focus? Easy home park conditions? He's got Matt Kemp-level talent, and Matt figured it out about now, but Matt never had the H/R splits that Upton's shown.
Unfortunately, nobody's offering us Matt Kemp. Might be able to get Andre Ethier (aka one legged Ibanez) and he's been far more steady, in a pitcher's park. He should be cheaper talentwise as well, because he's more expensive salarywise... but have you noticed that his L/R splits are ridiculous? He makes Choo look like a good batter against LHP.
Everybody's a risk - why not focus on Upton's good (.800+ OPS) against same-handed pitching as a benefit over a player like Ethier, who's older and could be reasonably platooned now, and almost certainly will be a couple of years into his expensive extension?
I agree, Upton's a riskier asset than I'd like to throw several prime talents at. We'll see where those blue-chippers really do land and what they do net us eventually... but if Jack thinks he could solve the Rubik's Cube that is Justin chasm of a H/R split I'd understand the payout.
Because then we would be adding Matt Kemp, and there's something to be said for that.
~G
10
Yes, we lose two good relievers, but we have a logjam there anyways and we can always get one for Carp, who's on his way out anyways. Little Nicky probably will be expendable, and I'm not that high on him anymore after Spec's awesome work over at the Stalk and the fact that Miller is knocking on the door.
Upton played with a brace on his hand most of last season and managed that (3.5 WAR). He played a lot of his away games in pitchers parks. And we give up surplus. I hope this is just his agent on the veto, as Cameron writes, and his brother supporting to get more leverage. I'm in on this deal. Way better than having to give up Seager. I'm in, and if a SP is involved to fill the hole, even if it's only a decent #4, I'll be really excited!
11
And Patrick Corbin seems like he would be a natural throw-in for this deal.
12
I never said it was the whole story.
But, Arizona IS a hitters park.
Upton does have a HUGE skew between home and road.
For his career, Upton on the road IS a mediocre to sub-par offensive OF.
Upton IS a sub-par defensive player.
I am perfectly willing to entertain arguments on "how large" the park factor might end up being.
But nobody has given a SINGLE argument in regards to why one would expect Upton to significantly improve his ROAD production in the future.
Hey, maybe it isn't the park. Maybe he just loathe living out of a suitcase. He hates long plane rides and hotels. Gee ... I'm guessing moving to Seattle is going to be a real boon in that regard! (end sarcasm)
======
But, let us put the Holiday road OPS progression beside the Upton ROAD "progression" for the final 4 seasons in their "friendly home" era
Holiday - Upton
.654 - .862
.729 - .790
.819 - .767
.860 - .670
Upton has LOST almost 200 points of ROAD OPS over the past 3 years. Holiday had gained a similar amount.
Thank you for pulling out a way to look at the statistics that sort of proves my point.
Remember, the second half of my argument was that there was nothing in the Upton profile that suggests improvement. However, having viewed his road stats, there IS evidence that he is getting worse.
So, I'll close with a simple question: What is the Upton ROAD production projection for the next 5 years ... especially if he moves to the AL?
===
p.s. - Holiday posted an .831 total OPS when he moved to Oakland - only 400 PAs - but yes Holiday's total production DID drop once he left Coors. The question is not "IF" -- the question is "how much?"
13
Any chance that willingness to overpay is impacted by Felix wanting to see commitment to winning before signing up long-term? There was early talk about a Felix extension, but those seem to have disappeared or been put on hold...
14
A little deeper look.
H/R splits, Justin Upton, last 4 years:
2009: .934/.862 (.050 OBP difference is most of it)
2010: .807/.790 (slugged more on the ROAD)
2011: 1.033/.767 (road ISO of .193, had a road BABIP problem)
2012: .924/.670 (did hand injury change swing?)
His road slugging ISOs are .225, .185, .193 and .092, so one bad year and a little bit unlucky. His career home ISO is .241. So maybe you can say "drop 50 points off his power numbers and call it a day" except that by changing his home environs you may start getting different road performances as well.
Could there be a 1 year adjustment period, as you pointed out that there was for Holliday? Sure. But St. Louis was completely foolish for signing Holliday thanks to his home-park stat inflation - until they weren't. His raw stats dropped a bit, but his OPS+ was rock-solid between Coors and St. Louis. The level of his CONTRIBUTION remained unchanged. Would that be enough with Upton to justify the price, or do we need a huge step forward from him?
Look, Upton is not my pride and joy. There's got to be a reason the D-Backs have been willing to trade him basically since he stepped foot in the bigs, and he's not an ideal hitter for our park even with the coming changes. Not my first or second or third choice to fix our woes.
But if Jack was willing to cough up THAT much for him, then I'm curious whether that means he still sees huge upside in the young man and his approach, or whether he really is that desperate and is going to start Bavasi-ing away the minor league talent on a desperate and futile grab at the brass ring.
I still don't know what to think of Upton. I do know we are still looking for offense and wonder where the search will take us next. Maybe back home, with Carp or Wells or an early Zunino promotion. I dunno.
I do know that when Oakland traded for Holliday they gave up some kid named Carlos Gonzalez who's netted the Rockies 16-ish WAR for about 8 million bucks. Sometimes the best trades are ones you don't make. This might be one of em.
Show me the next step, Jack.
~G
15
Although for some athletes, for example Jered Weaver, it's all about the "home org." Felix is about the most extreme case of that I've seen ....
16
He's a bad fielder, but both UZR and DRS have him as very solidly positive, as do the fans according to fangraphs.
Regarding his road numbers, if you check by stadium, Upton has been mediocre and unlucky in Dodger Stadium, mediocre with normal luck in Coors (!!!!), mediocre with normal luck in San Francisco, and awesome (.906 OPS) in Petco with a somewhat poor BABiP. So he can hit in the NL version of Safeco, but not in the greatest hitter's park of all time right?