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=== Topics Du Jour ===
Nick Swisher, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Kendrys Morales are all cut from about the same cloth offensively.
Fill up a batting order with their ilk, and you're looking at 6.0 runs per game. If you stipulated, before the fact, that Morales would be feeling good in 2013 and playing every day in, Dr. D would take Butler first, Gordon last, the other two in the middle.
Kendrys takes a different road to Rome than the ones traveled by the other three. The other guys walk 70, 80, maybe 90 times per season, and lack dangerous home run power; Morales knew he wasn't going to walk his way off the island. So for hitters really comparable to Morales you've got to look at players with more power.
But, again: if you grant before-the-fact that Morales will play 140+ games, Dr. D wouldn't spit for the difference between Morales and the three batters that the Warts Spiders have been stalking. That's a big IF.
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=== Blasts From the Past ===
Truth be told, a couple of players from 100 years ago are the ones who come to mind. Remember Kent Hrbek, anybody? The swing, the kludgy body, the knack for an off-field RBI when needed, all that stuff ... the Big Hrbowski had a better eye and was a little bit better player.
Tino Martinez was quite similar to Morales as far as the compact swing, the stiff mechanical running, and the slash line.
As compared to Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales shares a knack for getting on top of the ball and a basically 290/340/500ish slash line. Kendrys has more talent in his love handles than Rauuul ever though of having, but unfortunately doesn't have 2% of Rauuul's desire. Nor Raul's durability, earned in the weight room.
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=== Weighted Means Approach ===
Throwing aside stylistic concerns ... if you search for batters in the period 2010-12 who echo'ed Morales' career slash line, you get players like
- Nelson Cruz
- Mike Napoli
- Jay Bruce (a bit more of a pitch stalker, tho)
- Adam Jones
There you go. If you want a quick feel for the value provided by Kendrys Morales, SSI nominates Nelson Cruz, if Cruz hit from the left* side.
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=== Counting Your Chickens, Dept. ===
It's a funny thing, though: compared to all of the above players, Morales has a more extreme LO scenario and a more extreme HI scenario.
The LO is provided courtesy of Morales' ankle injury, weight, and work ethic - hopefully all minimized by his contract drive. (For those who just joined us, K-Mo is a free agent next eyar and is represented by Scott Boras; Morales is precisely the kind of stock investment that will have visions of $80M paydays dancing in Boras' head. Morales will be in Seattle for one (1) season, give or take a trade deadline.)
The HI is provided courtesy of the fact that Morales, when last healthy, was in fact an MVP candidate.
For what the Mariners are doing right now, for the short term, you can certainly argue that a $4M Kendrys Morales is the preferred option. To Butler, Swisher, and Gordon. Obviously to Zduriencik, [K-Mo plus draft pick] is preferred to Nick Swisher.
In other words, if you were thinking Swisher, you're covered. For 2013. Ditto the Royals' guys, and whattayer know we didn't have to cough up a future 17-game winner to git r done.
Kendrys Morales isn't a grate in the sidewalk who blows Dr. D's skirt up; nix the "M's get their slugger" hype. The 35-homer, 120-RBI, .550 SLG scenario has what -- a 25% chance of occurring?
But the great thing is that he's a bonus. Or should be. He should be gravy on top of whatever else the M's do; he should be the third player in this winter. He's a rental and they just SAVED money on him.
In the M's dream winter, they just added a short-term Gordon or Swisher comp and now they can get started.
Naaaahhhhhhh....
NEXT
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