.

Talking points, as opposed to analysis.  Jus' crackin' peanut shells, throwing 'em over the rail, and watching a game.

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Dr. D bears the M's no ill will, none whatsoever, for the Josh Hamilton whiff.  

Jon Heyman has it that the Mariners offered 4x$25, with two more years pretty easy to get, and he has it that the M's were bitterly disappointed to lose out on him.  As to this specific transaction, it doesn't sound like there was anything the Mariners could do.

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Rumor has it that Arte Moreno slammed a take-it-or-leave it offer, to prevent Hamilton from going back to the Rangers to match.

From a business standpoint this would be shrewd.  From a Christian standpoint - which Hamilton advertises to be his standpoint - it's a temptation from the pit.  If Hamilton gave the Rangers (his family, the ones who bore with him despite his addiction problems) his word that they'd get to match, and then $125M purchased a lie from Hamilton, well, that right there is Faustian temptation.  It could be the pivot point of a movie.

It would be nothing for Moreno to be proud of, either, to purchase a breach of a man's integrity with an ocean liner full of cash.  If that's what happened.

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Dr. D is guessing that the Mariners might have overbid Moreno, if they'd been given the chance.  Very likely they were proceeding on the basis that Hamilton would not succumb to a sudden take-it-or-leave-it offer from a team other than the Rangers.

In business it's called trust equity, and you mess with it at your peril.  

In many respects, the whole of life revolves around the question of short-term gain vs. long-term loss.  Hot fudge sundaes are that way.  Temper tantrums are that way.  A leeeetle bit farther down the scale, there's cocaine.  It produces euphoria for a certain number of minutes, with the price being that the dopamine pleasure cycle in your brain gets ruined.

................

You could excuse the Mariners for losing out on any particular Prince Fielder contract or Josh Hamilton contract or Adrian Gonzalez trade, in isolation.

But it's like if one of Jack Zduriencik's employees came late to work, 14 times.  The 14th time, it isn't going to matter that THIS time, it really WASN'T his fault.  He's being fired for the first 13 times.

...............

Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, etc. are aghast at the idea of overpaying for a marquee player - overpaying in FA dollars, or overpaying in prospects.  The aghastness was double-strength Excedrin strong on the James Shields front.

But their definition of overpaying is arbitrary.  They say, "on average, the industry paid $5M per WAR for free agents," and they're right.  But then they go on to say, "In any particular tactical situation, it is therefore incorrect to pay more than the industry average."  When they go on to say that, they're being ninnies.

In chess, there are times you sacrifice your queen to checkmate.  In Monopoly, there are times you pay $1000 for Illinois Avenue, and you win the game - despite paying 3x the industry average for Illinois.

If I'm the Mariners, I'm doing something about this losing streak on marquee players.  I'm doing something about the fact that no marquee hitter wants to play for the Seattle Mariners.  If giving double prospects for Giancarlo Stanton breaks a logjam, then let the bloggers laugh.  

It is the MACRO TREND that needs attention, and bloggers are not known for understanding macro trends.  CEO's, however, have to transcend short-term tactics.  That is what they are there for, to strategize and provide long term solutions.

Not that Stanton, or his equivalent, are going to make up for Pujols and Hamilton at this point.  The 2013-18  Mariners are about to get Liverpooled by the Manchester City Angels.  And they will RICHLY deserve it. Over the last decade, they have earned every inch of their second-class status.

BABVA,

Dr D