Because I think Z's answer to the accusation that Bay's upside is not better than the guys we already have would be "but Bay is a veteran presence who can really help teach our yougner players how to win and lead the clubhouse - and he forces tthe younger players to fight for tyheir playing time and earn it"
To which I can only say "Veteran presence has ZERO value if it's in the form of "guy who is TERRIBLE at his job."
Baker opined that very thing...that he was looking for a veteran insurance policy to platoon with one of our lefty outfielders and be a team leader a la Adam Kennedy.
To which I say...hearing colors and tasting music must be fun. I'm losing my faith in Z's understanding of building a winning ballclub. He's a great minor league scout...but he seems to have no concept of how to go to the next level.
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=== Talking Points ===
1. Jason Bay is, as Jeff Sullivan aptly put it, "another team's Chone Figgins." His article is perfect, with a capital P.
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2. Bay is the equivalent of a non-roster invitee, a Kevin Millwood type, you bring him in to see what's left in the tank ... and it is entirely possible that his recent struggles are tied to shoulder problems. Especially in terms of his Power Index.
There's logic in asking, "Have his shoulders recovered?" and bringing him to camp to see if he pulls a Millwood.
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3. Even if Bay felt really good in March, I can't for the life of me imagine how he could beat out Casper Wells for a job. Why would you want Jason Bay's age-34 UP season over Casper Wells' 2013?
And there are other players besides Wells to consider within this talking point. It is precisely this scenario, the one in which the gamble "pays off," that I don't get. Supposing that the prayer were answered and Bay was a skosh better than Wells. Didn't you trade Doug Fister for Casper Wells?
I'm getting a bad feeling here. How about you.
Only guess here is that Zduriencik is doing Bay a favor, letting him showcase, so that he can avoid a Richie Sexson vanishing act. But that isn't done in December, is it?
Well, the other guess is that Casper Wells is in demand out there in the trade market. Which raises another question that Dr. D can't answer: "Why would Wells be in demand?"
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4. Bay's numbers against RHP's have been trending down since he was age 31. This is entirely consistent with the idea that he's just old. And has been. For a long time.
Although: in 2012, he was hurt all year. In 2011, he finished September with a 960 OPS in that month. And then he slugged .460 in March 2012, before getting hurt. You could hope that the September 2011 - April 2012 was the real one, camoflaged by injury the other times.
Not saying it's my belief. But that's one feasible view of Jason Bay.
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5. SABRMatt (ghost) sez, "Which implies to me that Zduriencik has gone off his medication and is see colors and tasting music. Because He's going full hog for Michael Bourn and signing 34 year olds who just .165. YYYYYYeah...that'll work."
If you talked with Jay-Z, he would have an answer to this. I can't speculate what it would be.
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Comments
then Jack is doing the job we needed him to do. If we have to replace him because he can't get the necessary vet talent to complement the kids, then we do - but Jack is making the job of his successor easier by giving him loads of trade bait or promotable talent to sift through even if Jack isn't around to do the sifting.
Still, he has 20-30 million and he spent basically none of it on Bay, so I don't especially care about Bay. Jack does this sort of thing, with NRI's for Sweeney and such. Sometimes those guys make the club, sometimes they don't. I don't consider it a significant investment, and maybe it allows Jack to feel more confident in trading Wells or Saunders as a corner OFer. I hope Saunders isn't going, but ya never know.
It's not like this is the big add this winter, though (right?). Bay's just filler. I agree, it's very hard to be a team leader if you suck at your job. "I used to be somebody when you kids were in junior high" isn't the way to impress your teammates and have them follow your example.
But Jack knows we have to catch ALL of the teams from the division last year, so he's not adding Bay with the idea that he alone will make that happen. When we see the plan, I can critique the plan. If there's a bunch more Cust-type adds and no meat, then I'll guess that Z is either about to leave town or is REALLY secure in his ability to pick youth talent and has convinced the brass to be patient another year.
I won't be, but maybe he's got their ear. Still hoping for far better news soon.
~G
No harm no foul on Bay. When we see the final results, then we are in a position to comment.
Gotta love the fact that --- > we're "in on everybody" and the entire nation's jaws are dropped with respect to their aggressiveness. In the hunt, at least.
Among Mariner players that have batted in Safeco at least 230 times, Wells has the SEVENTH highest ISO at .175 (3 points less than Miguel Olivo), he's 3rd among Right Handed Batters and has posted a better ISO than Mike Cameron, Jose Guillen, and Adrian Beltre in Safeco, in the last couple years where all offense seemed to die for whatever reason. Wells has so far posted a .210 ISO outside of Safeco and is an amazing defender in a corner and passable in Center (and Center Fielders have been real valuable this offseason), and most teams probably believe he could be had cheaply. What if we traded him to Arizona in part of a Justin Upton deal, and Casper Wells batted .250/.330/.510 in the crisp Arizona air?
Positives about Bay: 14.3% HR/FB last season was close to career average (8 HR over 194 AB).
BsR on fangraphs shows him still positive (5/6 SB in 2012) so his legs are still healthy.
OOZ swings were very low (20% or 17% via PITCHf/x), his Zone Contact was above career average, so he's still making contact OK.
BABiP was silly low at .185, Figgins managed a .237 last season, career BABiP of .317 and a .295 in 2011, that was almost certainly bad luck and small sample.
Most of his comps (Same Height, Weight, Position, ISO, BB%, K%, Speed) played well through age 35 (Bay is 34), and his best comps (Guys that got injured or appeared done in their early 30's) include Jeromy Burnitz (.916 OPS @36), Andruw Jones (.851 OPS @34), Tim Salmon (.838 OPS @34 & .811 OPS @37), Eric Davis (.935 OPS from age 34-36 after .582 OPS @32 and missing age 33 season), Ron Gant (.807 OPS from 34-36), and Danny Tartabull (11 PA @34).
Despite what Geoff Baker said, we're apparently still hard in pursuit of Raul Ibanez.
Really nothing more. Low risk, potential big reward (isn't that exactly what you hope to do with a signing like this?). None of us net rats can gage how much impact his injuries actually affected his output (vs. normal decline) and one of us net rats can gage how much his injuries will actually affect his future output (vs. normal decline). How much of his skill does he still own? We'll find out....
And if he doesn't still own a bunch of that skill, it's not as if you've got the sunk cost that you absolutely positively have to block somebody with because you're paying him. You're basically not paying him much at all.
Obviously you can't now go out and whiff on everybody else and call this your big move, but that kinda goes without saying.
A 10% chance at a Russell Branyan/Jose Guillen add for under a million bucks is the going rate, and I'd wager that if JackZ thought the oddswere that low that this would have been a much later NRI instead of major league deal.
They already cast off Figgins, which seems to indicate a flexibility in kicking dead weight which we haven't seen before.
The fact that Bay imploded almost immediately upon arrival in the big apple also bodes well for the potential that a major catalyst for his collapse was psychological. NY can be a rough place, even compared to Boston if your head's not right.
Don't expect to see him on the 25 man in April, but if there are another 5-6 guys to be had like this, I'm down for dumpster diving to get that 3rd add this winter.
We're being linked to Morse (supposedly we have "big interest" - it was awesome when we gave him away for Ryan flippin' Langerhans...awesome. Now that he's had his career year, he can come here and hit .270 with no walks and 10 dingers. yay.
Just wondering which current Mariner OF (or potential OF) is Bay better than.
Starting from the top:
Saunders? Nope
Guti? Nope
Wells? Don't make me laugh
Thames or Carp? I take them over Bay in a NY minute.
So, too, Vinnie, Romero, Franklin, Liddi, or Darren Ford! Gimme them, not Bay.
Hey guys, Bay last was a better than 95 OPS+ player in '09. He didn't have one bad season, he's had three. When we signed Branyan, he had OPS+'ed 113, 97 and 140 in the three previous years. He could still hit, no questions asked.
I don't get it. Were we a team that might win 95 games and go deep into the playoffs, a Bay might make sense...but even then, probably not. If Bay makes the team he simply blocks the possible development of a younger player.
Our stupid FA sniffing just reached it crescendo.
Crap. Double Crap.
Sigh.
moe