Talking points, as opposed to a POTD. If we had any sort of confident conclusion about a player, we'd have a POTD. Instead, you get a chat board post. Ah, the memories.
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1) The Mariners have two CF's who play approximately as well as Pagan does. They've got one who will hit 32 homers :- ) for peanuts, and they are paying the other one $7M next season.
G-Money says:
Dr. D's memo: If the M's were going to spend $10M+ per year on a player, you'd think that they would want to emphasize the delta that such an incoming player would give them over their current options.
On that note, you'd have people arguing that Saunders isn't actually a viable center fielder. Those people, to swipe Mark Twain's line, would Not be Me.
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2) Pagan is a WAR hero. In this article, Fangraphs nominates Pagan for the game's most underrated player. They underline Pagan's 5 WAR this past season, which puts him at over $20M per season on-field value. They go so far as to deadpan that he's comparable to Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson and Marx Teixeira.
We don't suppose that you'd hesitate to pay 4/$50M for Granderson or Teixeira, whoever your rookies were. The logic is sound, if the premises dubious. (One dubious premise being: WAR gives a reliable handle on what a player's on-field impact will be in the future.)
Dr. D's memo: Chone Figgins became a FA superstar on the strength of a 5.0 WAR based on "soft skills." Hey! The guy is an above average fielder, above average runner, gets on base, above average everything. Bingo! He's worth Mark Teixeira's 37 homers and 119 RBI per 162 ballgames.
This "soft skills" 4.0, 5.0 WAR player has become an epidemic problem. The year before, the very year before, Pagan had a bit of an off year at the plate, and UZR didn't love him any more, and his WAR was ... 0.9. There you go, gentlemen. Chone Figgins.
But hey. If you're into WAR as a reliable paradigm, you're into Angel Pagan. Why WOULDN'T you pay $12M per, for 5 WAR. Let's see if anybody does that. In theory the bidding should easily go past $15M per, past $18M per.
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3) Pagan's REL (reliability) score is scary. Shander, prior to 2012, wrote of the 31-year-old Pagan that "Another year, another 30 SB, but be careful. SPD decline suggests these days could be numbered. Poor health says don't bank on 500 AB seasons. Some will look at 30 SB as baseline. You'll heed warning signs and look for premium wheels elsewhere."
Pagan will turn 32 during next year's All-Star Break. For mediocrities like him, that's about the year you start talking about retiring. Seriously. Age 27, maybe 28 is the prime time, and at about age 32 is when they start playing like horse manure. Figgins is an example.
Dr. D's memo: I can't tell you exactly what it is that I don't like about short-term 4.0, 5.0 WAR players who don't have any talent. But am guessing that if I wanted to nail it down, I could. Maybe I'd start with the idea of "talent."
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4) Angel Pagan and Chris Young have interesting similarities as a comp pair. Both hit in the 100'ish range as center fielders and both run well, in the 20-30 SB range. Both are considered plus CF's, though Young's numbers are a lot better.
Billy Beane, who doesn't have a lot of money to spend, just gave Young $8.5 and $11.0M over the next two years -- giving up only a fringy SS, and a Grade C prospect, Carlos Triunfel-lite type to get the contract -- so you could ask how that relates to the Pagan salary baseline.
I'd rather have Young by quite a ways; he's much younger, has a rep as a true impact defensive CF and he's signed to a 2-year deal. That's quite a bit different than giving a 3- or 4-year deal to a 32-35 year old. Still, as you know, Young wasn't a free agent. But it's worth filing away, that Miami didn't rake in a mint for Young's team-friendly contract.
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=== Dr's R/X ===
A player who scores you a "stealth" 4.0, 5.0 WAR for a year or two? Good stuff. That's what Stars & Scrubs is there for. You seek those whack-a-mole 4.0 WAR contributions on the downlow.
To pay a Scrub coming off a 2010, 2012 Angel Pagan season --- > as though he were a Star? There's somethin' fishy bout dat. SSI will be surprised if Pagan gets any GM, any of the 30, to pay Pagan for even 60% of his WAR resume, times a 4-year deal.
Alternatively, maybe you think Pagan really will net you 40-50 runs the next three-four years, hard on the barrelhead -- it's just that he'll do it Edgar-style, in ways that aren't as sexy as Texy. If so, there's a bargain to be had here. There are a couple of teams that might be very hot for a decent CF this offseason - the Reds? maybe?
If Dr. D is a real-life GM, he's betting the under on Angel and on WAR as an inviolable paradigm. No Chone redux for Dr. D, please. But hey. We moved the fences in for Mickey anyhow.
Cheers,
Jeff