The risk for the Gnats in deciding to shut him down and then failing to reach the WS, is that Stras might resent the missed opportunity. If they make a string of playoff runs and reach the WS while he's under team control, then maybe he gets over it. If not, it might drive him to another team. Of course, there is no guarantee anyway that they can retain him when he becomes a FA, and they decided it was in their best interest while he was under team control to do exactly what they did. The fact that they lost early in the playoffs says they were probably wrong in their judgement.
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Dr. D wonders how much trouble he'd get in for adopting a Euro soccer style headline trend. You know, "TOM BRADY TO SEAHAWKS?" and article text starts with "There may not be much to suggest this, but here's why I feel it could be a good idea." Traffic that is disgusted with you is still traffic...
Actually our little joke might be forgiven by some, since James (speaking here as Red Sox brass) addresses the issue of: does an org owe it to its players to deploy them as they wish to be deployed?
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This answer actually did turn around some of my thinking on the issue. My own thinking had been similar to Tom's: players and owners are partners, and as the stakes get higher and higher, really the business relationship becomes a type of collaboration. Along the lines of Spec and Gordon writing a book, and me advertising it, or somesuch.
But now it occurs to me that in Fortune 500, employees serve at the sole discretion of the company, and this includes upper management. The company offers employment, and you are free to accept or decline. The company sets the terms and makes the offer. This casts Ichiro's privileges -- I play unless I take myself out of the lineup, I hit first in the order, etc -- in a new light.
Now, if a superstar negotiates a contract with a given understanding -- "Hey, Prince is looking for a place where he'll play first base" -- well, that's the name of the game. But Carter Capps doesn't have a 38-inch inseam to stand on, as it pertains to the way he'll be used.
James makes a telling point: 15 pitchers want to close next year. The ballclub cannot -- can NOT -- say "yes" to players' wishes as a routine business policy. This had never really dawned on me before. When a ballclub grants a player's request it is operating outside NECESSARY business policy.
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Also the point about the DL is so decisive as to put "PAID" to the discussion, right there by itself. The soldier might want to charge up the hill; that's him being a soldier. There has to be a colonel to his rear, on higher ground, yanking on the leash when that yank is the right thing to do.
For Strasburg, that colonel brigade includes not only the Nationals, but also Scott Boras. The fact that Strasburg indicated that he wanted to pitch? Originally I figured Stras was being disingenuous, since his own agent was fighting to keep him off the field. But now you wonder whether he wasn't just a soldier caught up in the smell of the napalm in the morning.
Still doesn't mean that IP-per-calendar-year is a good metric for this purpose. Personally, I don't think that it is, and I wonder why Scott Boras would buy in to such a superficial approach. Usually Boras is ahead of the curve on stats analysis.
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Chris Sale went 17-8, 3.05 for the White Sox this year, racking up 4.9 WAR out of a clear blue sky. His average fastball dropped from 95-96 down to 92 in the rotation, and his HR/Fly rate has always been pretty high. But his sidearm delivery, his natural velocity, his tight-spin slider and his +1.85 runs changeup carried him through.
Don't you wish that somebody in the Mariners' org would do a Risk-Reward analysis on Capps' conversion to the rotation? What is the downside? And how does it compare to the upside?
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Comments
Technically, I guess the easiest way is with a ready player at the same position, but let's assume for a second that the traded player is hard to replace at the same value. I mean, if we were to trade Danny Hultzen for X, and Walker's not ready, and Maurer isn't, and Pike certainly isn't... then who steps into the rotation? We don't throw Noesi back out there, right?
But moving Capps to the rotation is a bit like stashing a ringer in the bullpen and devaluing him on a national level, propping up the value of the Big Three, and then sneaking him out of the back to the roars of the crowd later. "Wait, we traded for their best pitching prospect and they just dragged a BETTER pitcher out of his setup role? What did we miss?"
Like having a former WWF champ wrestle in a mask like any old jobber, then tear the mask off and win the belt back.
We really don't need Capps in the pen. I mean, I'm not turning him DOWN, and it could always work out via injury or ineptitude that we DO need him and he'll be really valuable...but didn't we pick up a 7th inning arm as a trade throw in? Or in the Rule 5? Don't we have 3 more of those guys hanging out around AAA?
Maybe they're not Capps-good...but Pryor's an 11K baller, as is Carson Smith, as is the goon Tyler Burgoon. All righties, all AA or above. Shawn Kelley's still around. Chance Ruffin was K'ing 11 per last year. Moran's a crafty lefty, but he's been a nightmare this year too. LaFromboise? "Only" 9.5 K/9 but completely unhittable.
We drafted another armada of setup/closer types this year, with Vedo/Wood/Brazis/etc all blowing up opposing batters on contact.
Capps still looks like a starter to me. Maybe with Felix/Iwakuma/Erasmo/Hultzen/Paxton/Walker/Maurer we can't fit him in and will simply deploy him from the pen a la Bard or Papelbon... but if we have to trade pitching for a bat, then I'd sure be interested in testing him out as a starter. We could use a 4 WAR starter appearing like magic from thin air.
Especially since we traded the last one. Enjoy your AL pennant, Mr. Fister. Tack that thing to your wall, and go get a WS ring - we miss you as our #2 starter, so excuse us while we search through our multitude of prospects for your replacement.
~G
Love the idea of Capps-as-starter. The whole Brandon Morrow situation really ought to highlight just how badly the inflexibility of this organization can get in the way of success. The front office should be entirely focused on deploying resources in the most productive manner possible, rather than trying to clean house in some strange corporate 'nesting' maneuver.
Having all of these highly-touted prospects provides an opportunity to convert them into some valuable, high-end certainty. Alex Gordon would be a good target, but he's not a blockbuster by any stretch of the imagination. An abundance of talent at a handful of positions is only a good thing if their overall value is distributed in such a way as to plug holes across the board. Obviously, one way to accomplish this is via trade.
There has never been a better time to pull off a major blockbuster trade involving some of the M's young pitching to acquire a long-term offensive solution. WIth the depth and quality of the system at this time, I would say that to fail in executing a trade for a big bat this offseason is nothing but harmful to the short- and long-term prospects of the organization. They need to convert a handful of these 50% dice rolls into a 100% monster this offseason.
Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton, anyone?
He's a Boras client - once he hits FA, he'll be playing for whichever team gives him the best contract. Period.
Jonez is back!
Would love to see Capps in the rotation. Even if you shave 3-4 mph off, hes going to be one of the hardest throwers in the game. He could be a better SP prospect than Walker, but hidden due to circumstance and perceptive age arcs. You never know.
Then go out and do your own Fister deal with those excess prospects.
I'd pull a Hershel Walker deal for that dude, and I know the Marlins said they'd talk about anybody, but they can't be serious. However, I wonder how soon we can change this perception among free agents:
"Every time a guy gets on first base, that's all they talk about, how terrible this place is to hit," said Justin Smoak. "Everybody hates hitting here...I'm sure there are a lot of guys out there that have declined coming here because of that reason. This (moving the fences in) should definitely change some things. Everybody is excited about it."
That's a big perception to overcome.
I'm sure any major FA is gonna want to be sure about the fence fixes before signing on the line, especially after "we've" destroyed Figgins, Sexson, Beltre, et al. Nobody wants to spend the last 3 years of their contract on the bench. I don't expect a major FA addition on the hitting side - hence the reason for the trade speculation. That and our abundance of prospects, anyway.
I can't imagine Stanton getting here, though I could dream about it. More likely to get Logan Morrison, who would fill the Nick Swisher role for about 70 million fewer bucks over the next half-decade.
And I'd still take either Gordon or Butler from KC. Nick Swisher's age 32-to-37 seasons at 100 mill plus the loss of the #12 pick or the age 25-to-29 seasons of LoMo for something like 15-20 million, or Butler's 27-29 seasons at 28 million, or Gordon's 29-32 years at 44 million for some minor leaguers?
Even if Swisher would agree to come here, I don't think he's the best option. I'll take what I can get, but I'd rather splurge on Hamilton than go with another Figgins-type third banana. And since I don't think Hamilton will come here, there aren't other big-ticket free agent hitters I'm looking at.
I'd rather trade for Gordon and sign Greinke if we wanna pay a significant free agent.
~G
"I wonder why Scott Boras would buy in to such a superficial approach. Usually Boras is ahead of the curve on stats analysis."
Whether Boras buys into the conventional wisdom or not he is still obliged to follow it. It's easier to tell the next teen phenom's dad that "Hey I'm looking out for your son's best interest." if your not pushing your other clients to do things conventional wisdom says is dangerous.
I like the idea of Capps starting, too, but I don't think it's something that is likely to happen. I talked to two people in the org about this - one a player and one who would be heavily involved in the decision - and both said the same thing: right now he can't control his breaking ball consistently enough to start. Almost half (48%) of his off-speed pitches this year were called balls. Doesn't mean he can't learn to control it. He's just never had the need to throw it much.
We be good with bullpen arms. Nobody be good enough with Capps-potential-type starter arms.
180 potential innings of a pretty good Capps or 60 innings of a very good Capps is a brain dead option. Take the 180 and run.
I ain't taking Swisher, either. Gordon is very attractive. He's the gal who is the natural, perky beauty. Not a stunner, just sweeeeeet. And you only have to buy her an Accord. Swisher is thehot cougar gal who starts sagging everywhere just after you give her the Mercedes.
I like perky.
moe
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I have to think that the Marlins will be looking to shed contracts, not trade cheap young players. Now that they've dumped Bell, Buerle will be next.
... the best arm to not make his debut this past year: Danny Farquhar.
...at least for next year. Now, if he begins to show better command of his breaking ball, then maybe I change my mind. But, going into the season, I'm liking the idea of a bullpen that looks like this:
Wilhelmsen (RHP)
Pryor (RHP)
Capps (RHP)
Kelley (RHP)
Furbush (LHP)
Luetge (LHP)
What I see here is a bullpen where Shawn Kelley is your 4th best Right Handed Pitcher. Shawn Kelley's no superstar, but he's pretty good and he's probably better than that in most teams' bullpens. But this bullpen has a chance to be a thing of beauty that essentially shortens the game. That's what I see Capps being a big part of next year.
With a potential wave of young starters and the likely innings limits they will bring with them, having a bullpen that can throw a lot of good/great innings might be critical.
Lot to be said for building a team that way. First thing Gillick did when he got here, put together the kind of HA HA HA HA bullpen he had in Balmer...