Thames, minors: .50 batting eye, 4.50 AB:K, .222 ISO, 1290 PAsCatricala, minors: .55 batting eye, 5.35 AB:K, .192 ISO, 1840 PAs
I'm not a big fan of the Alfonso Soriano (or Adam Jones) method of hacking, but for some people it provides results. Thames has also shown he's willing to stand on the plate and supplement his iffy eye with HBP to get on base, as Soriano did in the first half of his career.
He, like Robinson, is an attempt to get a plus performer out of a rawer talent with an issue to overcome.
Like you, I'm really curious to see if Thames can adjust once teams work him hard inside instead of letting him extend those arms. He's hitting .340+ in AAA; yes, Vegas is a bit of a launching pad, but that's still pretty darn good, and shows that minor league pitchers aren't attacking him where he's weak. He's very early in his career arc and is probably gonna need to grow in the bigs if his contact / average skills remain that high.
Another guy on a rushed learning curve who picked things up late:Joey Bats - .55 batting eye, .182 ISO, 4.35 AB:K, got hit a bunch to up his OBP
Bautista's first 2 years in Pitt looked pretty meh, so he was moved to Toronto, still looked meh...and then clicked. Like you said, Doc, three years on and the guy with the wow-strong and wow-quick bat started using Toronto as his own personal launching pad.
So do you let Thames play and see if he can figure out his pitch recognition and put his offensive package together? Or should he Mike Morse his way to success without walks on some other club in 2014?
Personally, I want to see a LOT of Thames coming down the stretch. Get that man plenty of at-bats.
~G
.... and with their 13th win in 17 attempts, the Mariners crawl out of the coffin and back onto our GameDay watch. ::applause::
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=== Tom Wilhelmsen ===
He's been great for a while. Tonight, though, he looked like he owned the stadium. Like Johnny Bench in 1976, like Pedro Martinez in 2001, like Jose Canseco in 1988, like Randy Johnson from 1993 on, Wilhelmsen was casually dominant. He needed to go to a higher league.
When he was setting up for League, I remarked that his starter's rhythm, and his starter's body, was hurting him. He was wild entering the game, and looked out of his proper role. That is all bye-bye. He has acclimated, and that physical acclimation is causing this:
.........................................
That doesn't include tonight: he crammed his last three fastballs down the Jays' throats at 99, 99, and 99 MPH. The guy was untouchable at 96. Now we're going to be talking Aroldis Chapman velocity?
... He went to the yakker just to show off. He threw it at will, threw it for strikes at will, threw it maliciously. This guy is an aircraft carrier, and we've got him for this year and five more.
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=== Eric Thames ===
The good:
- Very quick bat - is jittery, agile, alert, with a great bat launch
- Makes sure he sees the pitch before he jumps at it
- Ball jumps off his bat - not just 20-25 homer power but 40-50 double power
- Surprising PX (power) and xAVG (expected batting average)
- Hits left
The bad:
- Is much earlier in his career arc than people thought (this is a fave Jay-Z 'market inefficiency', the rushed player)
- No defensive instincts
- Poor EYE - not my kind of player
The more he plays, the more people will realize that he's Michael Saunders v0.9 -- he's got Saunders' lightning in his bat, he's got the same pitch recog issues, the same everything - except defense.
Thames doesn't have a platoon role. He's not going to notably hit RHP vs LHP, not more than the average lefty, and if he did, why would he be in front of anybody else?
The guy is talented, and in three years he might rake for somebody. But it sez here, he just doesn't belong in line in front of Nick Franklin, Vinnie Catricala, or several other M's. Still, in the dream scenario, Jay-Z saw something and Thames becomes a .280/.320/.500 hitter in the bigs. Everybody who finishes in the top 20 for slugging, gets to play.
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=== John Jaso ===
See the Beavan article for analysis of Jaso's pitch calling against the Jays.
| CERA | CS% | PB | E | |
| Montero | 3.77 | 21% | 5 | 2 |
| Jaso | 3.57 | 24 | 1 | 0 |
| Olivo | 3.86 | 33 | 7 | 4 |
Olivo has caught 13 of Felix' games, compared to Montero's 5 and Jaso's 4. ... it's possible that Olivo has pitcher-management skills that Jaso and Montero don't, but if so, those skills have not yet saved the 2012 Mariners a single run.
...........
There are amigos who think that John Jaso is actually some kind of 144 OPS+ masher now, and he did have another line-drive RBI single tonight. Those amigos need to consider the issue of exposure. Two weeks ago, Jaso and Wells led the Mariners in production because they are the two guys who have not played much. Wells got full time action, and his OPS+ dropped like a rock. The same would occur with respect to Jaso.
That said, Jaso has 29 walks vs. 31 strikeouts this year, he has more walks than K's career, and he is hitting the ball with authority. Right now he is a championship-level role player.
Could you win your next pennant with John Jaso? Bet your booty you could.
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=== Carter Capps ===
Dan Wilson said that he threw 17 pitches in his game at Tacoma -- and 9 of those 17 pitches were clocked at over 100 MPH. (Some of the other 8 would have been offspeed pitches). It's one thing to touch 100. It's another thing to string a series of them on people. This is gonna be goooooo-ooood.
We don't know if the Mariners are going to win starting now, but we know that they're going to be fun starting now. Launch Wilhelmsen, Capps and Pryor off cats 2, 3 and 4.
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Comments
I want to see Thames for the rest of the year, but, watching his actions in the field, I want to see him next year after an off-season working not on strength-building lifting, but on Dr. Elliott's rotational strength program. Watching him make the back-hand catch in left makes me think if he was more limber and "Elliott-strong" he could improve his ability to catch and throw considerably (he obviously has good coordination). And a bit of Mike Bard's help (his swing looks an awful lot like 2010-2011 Saunders) wouldn't hurt, either. He comes across as smart enough and determined enough to put himself through an off-season like that - and a more limber fielder and another lefty that can hit lefties pitching inside would be a great find.
On the same theme, I hope Dr. Elliott either has on staff or knows someone whose expertise is running mechanics. Montero runs so poorly and so gingerly I have to think he's never really had any instruction on how to run since his body got man-sized. Even a bit of improvement would unclog the basepaths enough that Saunders or Wells could hit behind him more successfully. Even Olerud-speed or Edgar-speed would be a marked improvement. I also think loosening up his legs would help his pop co-ordination a bit also.
Switching to MarinersTalk-type stuff - does Jack Marder seem to anyone else to be the perfect utility guy (a la what Gimenez might have been) to put with Zunino and Montero in future years? The idea of a good utility infielder that could hit like Jaso (albeit right-handed, but with a very low split) AND catch a few games a year is really something to look forward to. Jaso probably has a few good years ahead, but slotting Marder in when the time comes looks great.
The rawhide-tough, stick-your-face-in-there aspect. Guess there are times when tats are worth something.
The Morse parallel.
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Still not bullish on Thames but you guys are piquing my interest. As we all know, there's an upside scenario here.
Certainly his swing shape could serve him well in this park.
That backhand catch said it all. Like, "Jack Cust" maybe?
Obviously, the man can run. Maybe a total body remake like you advise would help with the limber-ness out there.
I don't think total body makeover is necessary. I read somewhere during the deadline analysis that Toronto thought he had bulked up too much over the last off-season. The guy looks like he could be a much better athlete than Cust or Raul, but he tried to muscle up to compete with Travis Snider et al, rather than trying to be a Wells or Saunders or Reddick or similar - using his skills to mask his weaknesses, even though the weaknesses remain. A more limber kid with his speed could make that back-hand catch more smoothly and end up ready to throw as Wells does. And then we would have a 4th-5th outfielder worth playing time.