M's fans are in a froth about the radical realignment under discussion - no, not the Astros realignment.  The Ackley-to-1B realignment.  ... By 'in a froth' we mean that they're clicking onto baseball sites twice a week now instead of once a week.

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Quick Mail-Order R/X on Chase Headley 

You know how right hand hitters grow progressively more demoralized at Safeco as time grinds them down.  PETCO in San Diego can do that to lefties.  Headley's swing shape, and batted balls, had become warped by the electroshock that the park has applied to his lefty* swings:

Funny thing, though.  This year, age 28, his grounders continued to go up, to 49%.  But!  His HR per fly ball has zoomed, to 14%.  Wow!  

Have the homers been legit?  Well, they haven't exactly been Peguero-like.  Above is the scatterchart, with Safeco overlay.  That's average, average in the sense of "solid."  He's averaged 394 feet on his homers, not inspiring.  Not a problem, exactly, either.

Three of his 11 homers have been "just enoughs" and two have been "no doubters."  Per that metric, Headley is fine to keep bopping.  About twenty a year.  There are a few Mariners who don't.

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Folding the Aces Wired

Here are Headley's home and road splits.  This is career, now:

Slap me silly.  Dustin Pedroia's career slash line is .300/.370/.455, and he plays at Fenway.

Since Safeco is built for lefty hitters (HA!), you can see the money made on a Headley-as-Mariner stock split.  Headley's got invisible ability that, THEORETICALLY, will manifest at Safeco.  

Of course, that's what we said about the last 90 number one draft picks we had.  But what are you gonna do?  Stop being logical?  A sucker once walked up to a poker superstar in a casino and whined, "Last three times I got Aces wired, I pushed them and got killed on straight draws.  What am I going to do about those blasted aces?"  The superstar looked at him like he was somethin' brown and unpleasant on his shoe, and finally said "Play them the same way."

And, maybe they're going to do something about Safeco.  Like move home plate out ten feet, close the roof in cold weather, put plexiglass in left field, put the baseballs in a humidor and declare that three balls are a walk.

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Topspin and Top-Hand Throws Dept. 

Left hand, anyway, Headley has a moderate topspin swing.  He gets on top of the ball - lots of grounders with some home runs despite - and finishes with the bat coming back a little bit lower than average.  He also owns a career .339 BABIP, despite not being fast.  This is a Sexson-sized plus at Safeco. Dr. D does not see a dynamic swing here by any means -- don't think for a second that we're talking a real Dustin Pedroia -- but Headley works the count and attacks the ball.  The quintessential Eric Wedge veteran.

Being a switch hitter at Safeco is another giant thumb on the scale for Zduriencik.  He needs lefty hitters, but he can't have nine pure lefties for Chris Sale to mow through...

Defensively at third, he's average-solid by rep and by stats.  

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WAR Chest, Dept. 

Headley racked up 4.9 WAR (!!) two years ago, partly because he scored a 125 OPS+ wRC+ index, based on the stats at PETCO being so terrible.  This year he's on pace for 6.1 WAR.

Yowch!   You've got a 5-6 WAR third baseman with two years of arb left?   That's like trading for Evan Longoria or Troy Tulowitzki, eh?  Headley figures to earn about $20M per year in 2013 and 2014 and cost you less than half that.  Bang, a Net Profit of twenty million on him.

Well, I dunno.  Theoretically, Headley pencils out to be 80% of a Pedroia, Longoria, or Tulowitzki.  On the field, nobody's going to mistake him for those guys.

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Dr's prognosis:  the guy walks, hits somewhat topspin, is going to hit a hard 100-110 OPS+ anyway, and do it Wedge's way:  intelligently.  Chase Headley's K/BB is evolving nicely and he's a solid, if workmanlike player.  The echoes of Raul Ibanez resound in the ears, and Rauuulllll at third base woulda been quite a player.  You can pay good money here for a 3.0, maybe even 4.0 WAR player.

If the road splits turn out to be real, you rake in the 5.0 WAR player.  I dunno what I'm trying to say here.  Chase Headley definitely has a big career spike available to him.

What do you cough up for that?  And do you want Dustin Ackley playing first base anyway?  Hey, if Zduriencik can score Chase Headley without giving up his untouchables, rock on.

BABVA,

Dr D