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Rizzo being super topical right now.  For the Padres, he appears to be redundant with their shiny new bat, Yonder Alonso.  Of course, he's even more redundant for us, since Mike Carp is probably better than Yonder Alonso and Justin Smoak certainly is.

So, here's a chat thread :- )

Malcontent sez,

the Padres/Reds trade made me briefly think about the possibility of acquiring Anthony Rizzo.  This also occured to others.  

But when I think about it, The Reds acquisition of Latos actually pushes the Cubs back a bit for Fielder as the Reds, who were pretty serious contenders before, just got a lot better, and even though the 2 other big teams in the division are losing their bashing 1st Basemen, they will still need to be climbed over as opposed to stepped on.  Even the Pirates look like they're starting to get their act together and the Cubs have as many holes to fill as any team in the game.  I

t's getting harder every day to see where else Prince could sign.

There certainly is an argument to be made for Rizzo, supposing that Fielder spits on the M's and their money.

People were kind of wondering, Hey.  Why go through the spin cycle of trading Doug Fister --- > for prospects --- > for Gio Gonzalez, when you coulda just kept Fister?  The real-life answer being that the M's simply like Gonzalez better.  Jack Zduriencik and Eric Wedge just did not believe that Doug Fister is / was a TOR starter.  That's all.

A Rizzo operation would involve trading Smoak and/or Carp out for a player who is very similar to them, especially to Carp.  The reason you would do it would be simple.  You would do that because you didn't believe in Smoak and/or Carp, and did believe in Rizzo.  

Personally I do believe in Smoak's and Carp's chances, so am not infatuated with the idea, but do sign off that the idea is reasonable.  If you like Rizzo's chances to star in the AL, great.  A lot of people do.

The Padres don't.  Yonder Alonso is no ball of fire, but they're shedding Rizzo to get to Alonso.  Whaddeva.

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=== Trojan Horse Dept. ===

If Rizzo is supposed to be in lieu of Fielder, if he's just the 10th different way to say "I'd rather go into WW III without any nukes on our side" .... well, am glad that Jack Zduriencik doesn't think that way.  Our rivals, the Angels and Rangers, don't bring knives (AAA players) to gunfights (Pujols-Jered ballgames).

Some guys try to slide-rule their way around Albert Pujols.  They have more confidence in the $/WAR paradigm than I do.  Do you really imagine that, at this time of day, there is any single Moneyball path left to outsmarting an Albert Pujols - Jered Weaver - Dan Haren - CJ Wilson ballclub?  

All 30 teams now have those $/WAR spreadsheets.  If a 'net rat is aware of it, Zduriencik and Beane are aware of it.  The Angels load up with Pujols and Haren, and then they apply Fangraphs technique to the bottom 20 slots of their roster, too.

Ten years ago, maybe there was an information gap that kinda-sorta helped balance out the Pujolses, Fielders, and CJ Wilsons of the game.  Nowadays, you better bring H-bombs to the thermonuclear war.

You aren't gonna be able to sell me on your AAA hitter vs. my 6-WAR ML superstar, no way no how.  But ::shrug:: you might sell me on your AAA hitter vs. Justin Smoak.  Make yer case.

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=== Clocks, Dept. ===

It would be one thing if Anthony Rizzo were a Bryce Harper or a Jesus Montero or, um, a Justin Smoak, a universal top-10 prospect with MVP upside.   Rizzo actually is a high-school player, 6th-round draft pick, has slugged about .500 in the minors for four years, with a lukewarm 158:337 EYE.

He's got a Nick Franklin age-arc going, though.  In 2011, at age 21, he hit 26 homers in 93 games in AAA, and put himself into baseball's top 100 prospects.  Beautiful!  That's half a year plus of Trayvon Robinson performance... oh, wait.

Baseball Prospectus has Rizzo as the #6 prospect in the Padres' system, because of his age-21 homer binge in AAA.  Rizzo is a prospect but he ain't Justin Smoak.

Rizzo might hit 30+ homers.  In 2014 or 2015.   Smoak and Carp have put in their two years' worth of ML/AAA carousel time, have logged the two years of sorrow and travail that have them standing on the brink of AL stardom (or defeat).  By swapping (say) Carp out for Anthony Rizzo, you'd be setting yourself back two years, wouldn't you?

Unless, of course, you see Rizzo as one of those guys who will need no introduction.  If you're that high on Rizzo, cool - flip Smoak to Baltimore, go get Rizzo, and bail on the guy with the 1.0 EYE ratio ;- )

............

I'm kidding.  But my bias is heavily against flava-of-the-month thinking.  I hate to see a year invested in a kid, and then see the kid thrown out because his outcomes weren't quite there yet.  If you want to ditch Michael Saunders for reasons other than his outcomes, now that's okay.  But what do they see in Justin Smoak's swing, or eye, to cool them off on him?  It's just that he hasn't hit 30 homers yet, nothing more.

Good way to wind up losing a Carlos Guillen or David Ortiz...

You've invested the time in Carp and Smoak.  If you want to bail on them at this moment in time, the reason should be tagged to the toe.  Else they are the 2012 parlay ticket.

On the other hand, Rizzo did just SLG .600+ in AAA at age 21, so if you see him as a clear upgrade over Carp, no hay problemo.

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=== Chess Combination, Dept. ===

Rumor now that the Padres could flip Rizzo (and who?) for Matt Garza, which would be an eerie little echo of the Fister -- > Prospects -- > Gio maneuver.  Inside Dish wonders why they would "undo the Mat Latos gains" - remember SSI's view that the Latos deal was a big loss for the Padres, as the Fister trade was for us.

What would the Padres have gained, in this triangulation?  They hated Mat Latos' makeup, and ... obviously they aren't high on Anthony Rizzo, either.  They would feel much more comfortable with Matt Garza (5.0 WAR in 2011) and Yonder Alonso, than they would with Latos and Rizzo.  Hey, the Mariners were Mike Carp's biggest skeptics, too, until his 2nd-half rampage (46 RBI in 64 games).

Which SP do you like?  That is a GM's judgment, and that's what makes a ball game.  You bet on your guys, and I'll bet on mine.

BABVA,

Dr D