If it was the Yankees I might wait longer before making that sort of call, but the Padres? I know Felix was rusty but he wasn't THAT rusty. I absolutely agree w/ you, Doc - Montero catches Felix next so we we can see some more off-balance whiffs or look to another cause.
They swung HARD at everything and mostly on time. He fooled no one and got his outs on stuff and location. Very weird. Last night I blamed Olivo, so he's my first option for replacement in the battery tandem.
Besides, that's a much easier thing to get immediate results on. It's possible Felix is tipping, or it took a month for the scouting reports to get around about Felix's velo and for guys not to fear the heat...
But of course Jered Weaver's been killing people for years with no more heat than Felix is throwing, and it's not like Felix lost his movement as you say.
Looked like Olivo (or the Olivo/Felix combo) at first glance, so let's make a quick move to investigate that please, Wedge.
TIA.
~G
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Q. The title says "Tipping." This is getting to be about the longest get-to-know-you bedside talk we've ever heard.
A. Okay, we get down to it.
The last few weeks have been weird, the 10-hit games, the weird 2-out liners for RBI's, and about the 3rd inning, it suddenly hit me. On a 2-2 count to I forget who, somebody RH, Felix cracked off a devilish overhand yakker for the strikeout. Except the Padre sat back calmly, arm-swung, and leisurely swatted it foul. Ready for next pitch.
Not one pitch, not a single pitch all night long, did the Padres swing in front of a Felix offspeed pitch. I'm here to tell you, not one time. ... and do you specifically remember a checked swing? ::taps chin::
He got 8 or 10 swings and misses. But they were all timed well. Felix' pitches missed bats because of sheer movement alone. That's not a good thing.
On the fastballs -- 91-94, with life, the Padres were never tardy. Once or twice Felix went ahead and threw it high in the zone like he should be doing; Will Venable swung under one IIRC, but Venable was on time. He was just under it.
............
Then Shawn Kelley came in to provide a one-man control group. EeeeeeeYup. INSTANTLY here we have a festival of Padre checked swings, half positions, late swings on fastballs, swings out in front of offspeed. WHAAAAaaaaaaa? All of a sudden they're reacting like they can't see the baseball.
.
Q. Meaning what?
A. Meaning one of two things: (a) Olivo and Felix have fallen into super-predictable pitch sequences, or (b) Felix is tipping off his fastball.
I'm the manager, Jaso or Montero catches Felix' next start. If he's getting checked swings again, it's Olivo. If he's not getting hitters "in between" again, it's tipping.
I kind of doubt it's Olivo; for example, Felix gave up 11 hits in 3+ innings back on May 16, when Olivo was hurt. But I don't recall so few "in between" swings until the last few starts. Somebody oughta check it...
.
Q. Leaving Felix where?
A. At worst, Felix' new 92 fastball does not command the respect that it used to, making it easier for the batters to defend offspeed (they don't have to start the bat early).
But I kinda doubt that. Many great MLB pitchers are 92 and below, such as Jered Weaver and Cliff Lee. Worst case analysis, Felix has to learn to pitch with his new arsenal; "making adjustments" is what the pros would call it. I'd call it re-learning his own game. You might remember that in 2006-07, Felix had to learn which of his pitches were too dangerous and at what time. Maybe at 91 MPH he has to re-learn that.
Felix has been the most valuable pitching commodity in baseball. He will continue to be one of the ten most valuable pitching commodities in baseball. Dr. D ain't sweating it.
.............
But I'll guarantee you one thing. On June 11, the Padres had the pitches. Whether it was sequences, tipping, intuition or what, those guys knew what was coming.
My $0.02,
Jeff
Comments
Safeco is definitely in Smoak's head according to Baker. Saw his first oppo shot to RCF, not too worried about that one, but sounds like the LCF shot was as good a poke as a guy can have. I sure hope the pitchers' pleasure is enough because the players' pain seems to be surfacing more than usual this year. For me it just raises the question: does the FO realize/care that their own players hate the park they call home? Not to beat a horse that we walloped last week but now Safeco's getting in MY head and I watch the game with chips running down my shirt.
Nick
Is this the negative consequence of all your pitches (save the curve ball) having roughly the same speed? His delta on his change up is about 4 mph, while something closer to 9 is viewed as optimal (Jamie Moyer ran a delta of 7 mph in the early aughts, while Cole Hamels delta is 9 mph). Just a thought.
I was messing around a bit on the Safeco scatter plot for this year, and overlaying some of the other parks. It doesn't seem, at first blush, as if just the distance is the problem. Obviously, air quality plays into it as well. For instance, if you look at this year's scatter chart, and overlay Rangers Ballpark, roughly one quarter of the home runs in Safeco this year would be long outs in Texas. I believe maybe the humidity has something to do with it?
What I was looking for was a scatter plot of home runs, as well as warning track flyouts, in various parks, just to see if there was any way to justify moving the center field fence in ten feet. Obviously, there are so many other factors to consider, that just looking at a scatter plot would not do any justice to the idea. If it is the air in Seattle that is killing the ball, then maybe the move MAY make sense. BUT, then we may be doing damage to our pitchers in the long run. I'm not sure where the happy medium is, to be honest.
The Mets moved several parts of the fence in between 3 and 8 feet, if I remember right, and left other parts alone. A Mariners solution would probably follow that path with the biggetst reduction in Left Center and then a smaller reduction in left while leaving right field pretty much alone.
When your star player finds it impossible to hit for power at your park...you move the fences so he can. Our "star player" is theoretically Justin Smoak...and he's a gap to gap hitter. We should move LCF in 8-10 feet, LF in 3 feet, CF in 2-3 feet and RCF in 2-3 feet and leave RF alone.
Pre-Citi Field David Wright: .309/.389/.533/.921
Original Citi Field David Wright: .284/.364/.463/.828
New Citi Field David Wright: .350/.453/.575/1.028
David Wright Career at "Old" Citi Field: .279/.377/.449/.828
Felix' changeup, as we both know, isn't a "changeup" in the conventional sense. It's a power spitball that is almost as fast as his fastball.
The one slow pitch he has is the 83 curve, but hitters don't generally swing out in front of curves; they freeze on them.
Felix has never been particularly good at catching hitters in between - that's for sure. (IMHO, the Padres game, they were never in between at all, loading up and timing the ball correctly every swing.)
A forkball would be so nice to see. Clemens learned one later on. Imagine the garbage swings on an 80 MPH forkball.