1
So frustrating. The catchers really need to take some control out there.
League in hitters' counts: 94 fastballs, 5 splitters
...............
Last May we offered an analysis of League's Sasaki Syndrome. League replied, in the papers, that if he executed his game it shouldn't matter that hitters know what's coming.
Okay, maybe, but this year it has been mattering more and more. League now has 7 K and 5 BB in 13 innings. There is no such thing as a closer who sustains success on those ratios. You won't find any, because there aren't any. Closers have to have good K/BB ratios. 'cause they have to pitch good, and pitching good creates high K/BB ratios.
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=== 2012 To Date ===
Here are League's pitch tendencies so far in 2012, counting Monday's blown save:
| Fastballs | Splitters | |
| 0-0 count | 46 | 4 |
| 1-0 | 18 | 1 |
| 2-0 | 5 | 0 |
| 3-0 | 1 | 0 |
| 3-1 | 7 | 0 |
| 3-2 | 7 | 0 |
| 2-1 | 10 | 0 |
| Total | 94 | 5 |
League throws 25% splitters overall - absolutely none in hitter's counts, and about 50-50 when he's in the driver's seat.
With the above tendencies, League might as well be tipping his pitches. What difference would it make if League pushed his elbow out on the forkballs and didn't do so on fastballs? On 2-1, the batter is no less aware of the fastball now, than he would be with a "tell."
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=== April 30, 2012 ===
If we have the above chart, so do the Rays, and here's what happened on Monday:
11th, leadoff - Scott, 1-0 count: Fastball. Scott belts a double.
11th, man on 3B, two out, 1-0 count: Upton up, Fastball. Upton singles in the run to save the loss.
12th, man on 1B (walk), one out, 2-1 count: Pena up, Fastball, 4th straight heater he saw that AB. Line drive single pulled to RF.
12th, two men on, one out, 1-0 count: Johnson up, Fastball, line drive game winning RBI single.
..........
By my count he threw 14/16 fastballs in hitters' counts (and first pitches) Monday, vs. 6/9 in other counts. That, and including the March games, brought the total for 2012 to 94 fastballs and 5 splitters.
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=== Overview ===
Very true that we weren't complaining as long as he was saving games. Touche. That's how it is with closers.
But Brandon League is on a glide path down here. He's got a 7/5 CMD ratio and, without exquisite command low in the zone, he is obviously white-knuckle on every hitter. As he should be; if you're a major league hitter and you have the pitch, you ought to be able to do some damage.
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=== Pitchability ===
On the scouts' clipboard there is an area in which to grade "pitchability." It relates to how well a pitcher crosses up the hitters, how much of the plate he gets at what time.
Many pitchers underperform because of lack of this. Bartolo Colon had one of the lowest SwStr%'s in baseball last year. He has zero (0) pitchability: the batter knows what's coming. Well, he moves the ball around; that's part of pitchability.
When you see a pitcher with nuclear stuff fan 5 men a game, that is because of lack of pitchability. He just doesn't cross up the hitters. That's all. I didn't make up "pitchability." It's been a critical part of pitching for 100 years.
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=== Analysis ===
Ron Shandler, who specializes in closers, accepted League's terrible K ratio for 2012. Ron usually insists on 8+ strikeouts from closers; Brandon League has always had terrible strikeout ratios for a relief ace.
Shandler grudgingly accepted it in League's case because of "elite walk rates and very high groundball ratios." Just so! League has gotten away with 5-6 strikeout rates because he walks absolutely nobody, and because his first-pitch fastball is right at the knees.
Unfortunately, League does not have his command this year -- forget command; he doesn't even have control. Walks and wild pitches are through the roof. So the "tipping" is a luxury he can no longer afford. QED.
.................
THE KEY IS IN THE FIRST PITCH FASTBALL. If League goes 0-1, that is when this entire conversation becomes moot. In 2011, League threw that first-pitch heater into a teacup, limiting damage and staying away from hitter's counts.
If Brandon League wants to hit a teacup on 0-0, and command his fastball like Dennis Eckersley on 2-1, he can scrape by as a 5-6K closer for a few years. If Brandon League does not have command, and if he keeps "tipping" his pitches, he is going to get splashed. End of story. He can't afford both weaknesses at the same time.
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=== Groundball Pitchers ===
It's a Bill James Golden Principle that "I don't like groundball pitchers, I don't think you should invest in them, and I don't want them on my team." From a historical perspective, he thinks they walk such a fine line that they break down quickly, either in injury or in wildness.
Brandon League, with a plus-plus fastball and plus-plus splitter, pitches AS IF HE WERE a groundball pitcher -- he throws the 97 FB to a predictable spot, "pitching to contact," hoping to make the hitter hit a pitcher's pitch.
If he's going to throw all fastballs when the hitter is in the driver's seat, it would be interesting to see what happened if he took them up the ladder, changing the eye level, pitching as if he were a pitcher with good stuff. 1-0 count, here comes a fastball.... THERE IT IS! Whoops, too high, couldn't catch up to it...
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=== Tom Wilhelmsen ===
Is on pace for 110 IP this year.
Don't get me wrong. I'd give Wilhelmsen 20 IP in April also, while waiting for solutions to present themselves. The ballclub will change as the season goes along. But Tom is not available for 110 IP this year.
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=== The Bullpen ===
... has been overperforming in April. We've been taking it for granted, but there are lizards in the cellar. You've got a busted closer with a 7/5 control ratio, no command in the strike zone and who is "tipping" his pitches. You've got 110 IP on your setup man.
It's my team, Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor are here tomorrow, to begin their month of dues-paying. And a trade is made for a certified MLB short man if one is out there.
It's your tremendous luck as a Mariner fan that you have two 98-MPH relief pitchers in the upper minors.
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My $0.02,
Jeff
Comments
2
The catchers have to call for the fastball and League would shake them off if they didn't and it is the RIGHT CALL in League's case right now. Have you noticed that practically every splitter he's tried to throw this year has bounced to the plate at 58 feet? He has ZERO feel for his splitter right now...he can't afford to throw it in hitter's counts or he'll walk 15 men per 9, not just 5 or 7.
3
That's 2 Felix Gems that BL has wasted this month and it stings.
Any thoughts on bringing Luetge in to face LH Scott in the 11th for one batter? I'm told - but don't have actual stats - that Scott owns BL. Or if not in the 11th what about the 12th to face LH Pena after it's clear that BL doesn't have his 'A' stuff? The more and more I watch these close games I'm not sure I love Wedge's late game managing. Other examples are not putting Wells in LF for a defensive replacement late in games.
Also it's still clear the M's need to score more to keep us out of these situations! Hope Carp comes up and gets a hot bat!
4
He's your All-Star Closer and he'll do what he wants. It's your job as a catcher to work with him, to try to get him to do it in a way that doesn't hurt you.
League is hurting us. This is two of Felix's starts he's blown now. Rule #1 of being a closer: Don't Blow The Ace's Starts.
Somebody showed last year's article to League and he said "big whoop." But they showed it to him. Hopefully somebody shows it to him this year and lets him know that he can go back to a million fastballs when he gets his control back, but we can't afford for him to blow 5 games this month while he gets that control and command back.
So throw some breaking pitches when hitters are sitting red, wouldja??
~G
5
That's the only reason to have Olivo catch... Have his burly tough self go out to League and "explain" things to him.
6
:pulls League aside:
"Now listen, punk. This here is serious bizness. I'm gonna 'splain somethin' to ya. Right now your fastball is squat. Adjust, throw off-speed, 'cause if the 'splainin' method ain't doin' it for ya, we have...what does the Boss like to say...OTHER methods available."
7
He's blown 2 in 9 chances this year, 5 in 42 chances last year.
That said, His great value as trade bait is right now. He's cheap and pretty effective. He has value out there in the market.
Capitalize on that.
With the young arms we have in the system, I think it unlikely we go loooooong term on League after this year, as a closer. If he isn't here next year, find value for him now.
I actually like him more as a 7th-8th inning guy than as a closer where every save seems to be by the hair of his chinny chin chin). But I would like to see the money we would have to pay him next year go to keeping Vargas long term.
If he is a closer and his name isn't Rivera, Eckersly or Sutter.....he can be easlily replaced.
moe
8
Hmm. At what point do we begin to question Wedge's "aggressive" hitting instructions? They make sense, but it doesn't seem that that philosophy works with this team.
9
And are next-to-last in walks.
Of course, that probably makes your point for you. Smoak and Ackley are both supposed to have BBs as part of their offensive contributions, and so far they've walked once more COMBINED than Brendan Ryan has by himself.
2011: first in Ks, last in walks
2010: second in Ks, next to last in walks
2009: 6th in Ks, last in walks
2008: last in Ks, last in walks
So we've come from tentative, protective swings and having pitchers attack us without fear, to being aggressive windmills at the plate...while pitchers attack us without fear. Gotta scare pitchers off the plate by slamming balls all around the yard, but we're not doing that yet. We can't string hits together or get runners in. Frustrating.
One of these weeks we're gonna play a bad team, right? We get 3 games with Minnesota after this, then back to the grindstone. DET / NY / BOS back-to-back-to-back. A small (road) breather and then it's division rivals.
Not getting easier, fellas. Better figure out how to score against good teams and not just get random hits, because we're playing a lot of em. Figuring out how to earn a walk would help too.
~G
10
At least that's when I started questioning the truth about the Wedge hitting mentality.
In the end, what I suspect is that it comes down exclusively to looking strikes - especially looking called third strikes.
My view on aggression vs. patience is that the ultimate arbiter is what is the response to watching "borderline" pitches go by. In order to BE an Adam Dunn, you have no choice but to let LOTS of borderline pitches go by. The intent is to swing at REALLY good hitter pitches. That means passing on "at the knees on the black" pitches.
If you get strikes called on pitcher pitches, so be it. The concept, (proven most effectively by one Barry Bonds) is the better the pitch you actually swing at - the better the aggregate result when you do swing.
I have believed since early on that while Wedge talks a good game publically, the results of his hitters (as a group) is far more Ks ... far fewer walks. This is in comparison to these same hitters elsewhere. Additionally, there has been little to no patience in regards to walk-first style hitters, (Bradley and Langerhans got very quick DFAs last year is one example).
Peguero gets called up and an extended look. Seager ... the doubles king of the minors with next to no walk rate leaps from nowhere to the majors in the same time frame as the far more patient Ackley. Olivo plays every day despite a 427 to 1 K/BB ratio. Figgins, hired originally based on a stellar walk rate, has seen his walk rate plunge to nothing in Seattle.
My opinion ... Mariners can whiff as much as they want ... so long as they are swinging at strike three. Too many prospects have seen their walk rates plunge (and eye ratios go from good to horrid) for me to accept that this is simply random change.
Carp, Seager, Ackley, Smoak, Montero ... look at those K:BB ratios and try to explain the across the board decline in walk rates. I've watched lots of specs come up with the Braves. And some had issues with handling MLB pitching. But I've never witnessed this kind of "mass" skew anywhere else.
11
It would be one thing if this were occurring in the context of a bunch of crushed XBHs. But it looks like we are actually making things easier on opposing pitchers... and taking pressure off of the opposing defenses.
I too have been pretty concerned about this philosophy (or at least its results, on this team and with this set of players) for a while.
I don't know if it may be contributing to Smoak's struggles but it seems like he may be more of a walk first player when he's playing naturally.
12
Wedge showing too many weaknesses to be the long-term answer.
His tendency to mismanage the bullpen and perform below pythag was well known when he was hired, but the 'aggressive hitting philosophy', veteran entitlement, and horrible in-game management are new flaws that have popped up.
The Ms should pay Wedge $2mil a year to manage for Texas.
13
There is a real disconnect. I've been happily watching Z and McNamara collect all these hitters who demonstrate the ability to show patience while punishing the hitter's pitch, and now I'm watching them cease to be those kind of hitters.
(Note: MLB average BB% is 8.1; average K% is 18.7%; average ISO slg is .145)
Carp the year before Z acquired him:
-- BB% 14.0% K% 15.5% ISO .172
Seager in Tacoma:
-- BB% 9.4% K% 10.3% ISO .198
Ackley in Tacoma:
-- BB% 16.6% K% 11.5% ISO .185
Smoak in AA:
-- BB% 17.2% K% 15.4% ISO .153
Montero in AAA at age 19:
-- BB% 9.1% K% 18.1% ISO .227
Jaso in AA:
-- BB% 13.1% K% 10.9% ISO .168
In other words, these are exactly the type of hitters that the team should have been acquiring. They demonstrated the ability to generate power with low strikeout rates and reasonable-to-excellent walk rates.
Now there seems to be a slow-motion train wreck going on. Every single one is walking less and whiffing more.
Is it Wedge's fault? I don't know, but it sure seems as if the kind of players that Z and Mac want to acquire are not the kind Wedge wants to have hitting for his team.
Maybe this approach works for some, like Carp maybe, but I don't see why they are throwing Ackley and Smoak's walks down the tube.
14
Well, I can't resist.
15
And it could well be that Wedge is on them too much about "There was your pitch! Why didn't you jump on it!?"
This is evolving into quite an interesting debate. The M's are showing a great ratio beween OOZ swing % and Z swing %, which is great, but when the entire ballclub is losing its ability to draw a walk, that is relevant, too.
16
That's been my sense since about 3 months into the Wedge era. I think he believes the rhetoric of find a good pitch to hit - but emotionally, I suspect he's too sensitive to the limitations of each player's talent.
Sometimes you misread a pitch. Sometimes you just don't pull the trigger because it's Tuesday, (it happens). That's part of what experience is. But, I've always had this sense of Wedge being more upset with missing a good ball ...
But, the Carp makeover was accomplished in AAA, not simply a case of playing for Wedge. That's why I think there is something endemic to the organization that specifically devalues walks by hitters. Certainly this was a common belief in all of baseball for a century. But, the results are certainly troubling.