................. 

And that 5.6 WAR is as low as it is only because of his BABIP.

.

=== Ichiro's Line Drive Rate = .291.  His BABIP = .292. ===

I actually have begun to wonder whether maybe (10% chance) there is something about Ichiro's game that --- when he hits the ball in the air --- he is prone to hit screaming 275-foot line drives that hold up for the OF's.  

Maybe for a bigger guy those long line drives would go 325 feet, and disperse the defense.  The perimeter of that wedge is a lot larger, more ground to cover, as it is farther away from home plate.  

So I wonder, perhaps, if there is something in the nature of Ichiro's line drives that leave them at the "perfect" falling distance for outfielders to cut into SOME of them with catches on the fly.  Maybe for other hitters, 75% of line drives fall, but for Ichiro only 65% of them fall.  Don't get carried away!  Line drives are hit at 80-100 MPH.  Nobody's going to get half of them caught, long term.

If so, he could run a BABIP only 75 points higher than his LD rate, maybe.  His lifetime BABIP - LD is 148 points, propped up by a ton of infield hits.  Last year, without the infield hits, that was 101 points.  His new air game could maybe drop some from 101, theoretically.  But keep in mind:

1.  It is not possible to "deserve" a 1 point lag between LD rate and BABIP, and

2.  If his air game had a low BABIP, it wouldn't indicate that Ichiro was getting old.

I've never seen Ichiro swing the bat better.  Or quicker.  Including 2004.  He looks 27 years old.  Literally if I didn't know his birthday, I would think he was a ballplayer in his 20's.  As Ichiro put it last year, you could trade me for young players, but they would not move like younger players.  If you scouted Ichiro, and had to guess his age this year, where would you put him?

.

=== Ichiro's Next Contract ===

Like everybody else this offseason, I was counting the days until Ichiro's deal is up.  

After watching this man play baseball in April, I've become ambivalent.  Because Ichiro is about to become essentially the first 38-year-old speed player rack up 4 to 5 WAR.  He is such an odd duck, and has always crushed normal rules.  BaseballHQ rewrote expected BABIP for Ichiro.  

I can now visualize him having some of his best seasons over the next five years.   

He's finally shrunk his strike zone, which he never had done before.  His groundball ratio is RADICALLY changed, from a lifelong 2.0 - 2.5 to an amazing 1.2 right now.  His bat looks quicker than ever to me - would any Seattleite disagree?  Has anybody, watching the games, seen any decrease in batspeed from 2004 or 2007?

The man is light on his feet, extreme strength-to-weight ratio, superfit, and in that sense he echoes Jamie Moyer.  At age 40, Moyer finished 5th in the Cy Young, and he also amassed 8.5 WAR between the ages of 42 and 45.

Moyer was superb at ages 38, 39, and 40, and good at 42-45.  At age 45 he was 16-7, 3.71, leading the Phillies to a world championship.  I'm no longer sure that at age 45, Ichiro won't still be an impact player.

...............

Obviously there is a clear case against extending Ichiro (that he is about to get a lot worse than he is right now).  My own argument would be better received, we're sure, if Ichiro's BABIP weren't so unlucky.  His slash line would be .370/.400/.500.

But he averaged 5.3 WAR per season during the decade of the 00's, the #4 total in all of baseball.  Here, check out this 2001-10 WAR grid!  

He is on pace to average 5.6 this year.  That 5.6 is despite the unlucky BABIP line, though it also benefits from a too-large fielding bonus.  If his BABIP were normal, he'd be closer to 7 WAR.  

In 2011, he had only 0.2 WAR all year; in 2012, he's got 0.8 WAR already.  2011 was the outlier, not the other 11 years.

He's a first-ballot HOF'er, an extreme glove specialist who happens to have a Rod Carew bat.  Dr. D's scouting clipboard says that he is better than ever this year, that he may actually have leaped a plateau.  Do you want to keep an HOF'er around?  Lotta people woulda dumped Moyer at 38.

The M's have to decide whether Ichiro is going to slow down.  If you thought he wouldn't, then a contract extension would be a no-brainer.

.............

The M's used to do 2-year deals with Edgar when he got older and say at the press conference, "We would like nothing better than to be back here giving him another 2-year deal in two years."  I wonder if Ichiro would consider that.  Agree with G - four years would be really tough - but the way he is playing right now, I'd give him a 2-year deal for 2013 and 14.

Cheers,

Dr D