=== Gameflow ===
The M's crushed the Tigers like a pop can.
The no-hitter was followed by a couple of 15-hitters, which has us walkin' all loose and jangly, Satch. Did they say that Felix is 39-1 lifetime with a 4-run lead? Or 39-1 with 4 runs of support? Has to be the former. Or he'd be worth $100M per year to the Yankees ......
.
==== The Dark Before the Dawn, Dept. ===
Going into last night's games, here were the best pitching staffs in the American League. The top six consisted of the five teams that the Mariners have played, along with the Yankees.
Let's re-state that. The Seattle Mariners have played no games against teams outside the red circles below:
........
For 18 games, we've been reporting that the M's hitters have suffered one buzzsaw after another. The A's gave us McCarthy and Colon and ... that's about it. One game we drew Tommy Milone, whose ERA+ stands at 205. The Rangers, well ... the White Sox? Chris Sale looked like 17 wins standing still, Phil Humber was in a trance, and ...
You could reply, the above FIPs are caused by playing the Mariners. I could reply, check the ALCS as to the Rangers and Tigers; check the replays as to the White Sox pitchers; check the FIP stats last year as to McCarthy and Colon.
Earlier the thought was floated that the A's were easy clippin's. The A's are now 2-5 against the Mariners and 8-5 against the rest of the league.
Those five teams are, right now, +17 games on everybody else, and +1 game on the Mariners. They'd be -1 if the M's hadn't blown the 8-1 lead on Cleveland.
The Mariners have scored 76 runs, and allowed 77 runs, against this gauntlet. They're even steven against better-than-average opposition.
.............
No, for 17 games the Mariners saw one great pitching performance after another. Those guys going against us pitched great, deserved to get outs, and did get outs.
The last two games, the Mariners faced considerably lesser pitching, and ran holes in their shoes rounding the bases. In the eight or ten years we've been blogging, we've gotten verrrrrry used to writing chipper posts after the M's face Adam Wilk, and verrrry used to writing "hang in there" posts after the M's face Cliff Lee. There are two teams out there.
I don't say the Mariners are the 1975 Reds. But for sure they have faced GREAT pitching, and as a completely separate issue, they have hit into a lot of hard outs against that great pitching.
.
=== Felix ===
Mushy stuff on Wednesday. The mushiest stuff he's capable of. His last outing left him thrashed to a fare-thee-well. One chart to illustrate the point:
..............
The fastball velocity is way down, so far down that the F/X system was back to classifying it as a changeup. Here, inspect the movement and velocity on his FB compared to his change. His fastball wasn't running, only 3-5 inches armside run, and the speeds above all blend into one another because there is no finish on his pitches.
He tried to execute in the first, spiked pitch after pitch into the dirt, threw 18 called balls in the first inning, and never got it going. It just wasn't there.
So what happened? Did he get racked up for seven runs and an early shower? No, he locked down a Cabrera-Fielder-Avila lineup for 1 run and a laugher win. Like we sez. Michael Jordan is what you get when you combine a Jamie Moyer-style warrior who will not lose, with a supreme talent.
Felix Hernandez is a Terminator chassis driven by a Sarah Connor heart.
.
.
It's still waaaay to early to pass judgement on the M's offense, and also early enough that the teams in the red circles are that high on the list precisely BECAUSE they have pitched to the inept Mariners offense.
That perfect game almost broke my will to watch this team this year. Gonna take a lot more performances like these last two to make a believer out of me.
I'm sure they said last night made Felix 39-1 with 4 runs of suport.
Holy Bob Gibson!
On the subject of the A's, btw.
Cespedes hit his 5th homer last night. He's playing like Willie Mays.
And it looks like we should put to rest the idea that he only has slider bat speed.
moe
Sorry...I may be wrong about Cespedes' upside for the As...but I am not wrong about him being the exact kind of player I do *NOT* want on my team. Hot-dogging, self-absorbed cocky miscreants like him have no place on my roster.
Texas' pitching stats are skewed by the four games against us? They're 15-4, had a 117 ERA+ last year, and just whipped the Yankees.
Bartolo Colon's and Brandon McCarthy's pitching stats are skewed by their five games vs. the M's?
..........
The M's have the #2 line drive rate among 30 teams. Right now they are solidly middle-of-the-pack in terms of swings taken and balls hit.
The pitching stars they've faced have skewed the M's stats, not the other way around.
What in the world would he do in Fenway or Yankee Stadium? Oh, wait .... those are the teams that are saying, "any five."
I bet you they've matched Felix' QS consistency up against their offensive stats.
Last year this team was dead last in runs, hits, average, and OPS, AND they just had a perfecto hung on them by Philip flippin Humber, so yeah, until they produce actual results they're the type of team I expect pitchers to pad their stats against. There's a reason places like The Bleacher Report projected them at 28 offensively this year. I'm glad the peripheral numbers look good but they're gonna have to show results for while before I tip my hat to the opposing pitcher.
Colon and McCarthy are both likely to get roughed up once or twice this year. My money says it wont be the Mariners that do it. I think I recently read Sandy say something to the effect that at times they look depressingly like last years offense.
Don't get me wrong. I'd love you to be right. Your optimist vibe is part of what makes your place a web fav of mine. It's just for that for me the offense is bad until it proves otherwise. And line drive % isn't enough To do it for me. Put an end to those extended shutout innings and keep scoring runs baby!
This post was merely an observation that the Mariners have faced teams that rank in the top 6 in the league in pitching. That is an observation, not optimism.
Your premise that the cause of those teams being top 6, is that they have played the Mariners. You offer one thing in evidence for this assertion: that the Mariners' 2011 team hit badly.
..............
A separate issue: No offense meant, but if a fan has watched these particular first 18 games, and not noticed the excellent pitching thrown at the Mariners, there's something wrong. It would be like watching Kobe Bryant drop 40, and assuming the defense was flat.
Auto5, did you see the Sale and Humber games? You didn't think those guys threw great?
When Sale threw those two sliders past Ichiro in the first, and took over the game, you thought that was ICHIRO's fault?
Have you checked Sale's overall K rate, FIP, and game logs?
That description describes quite a few HOF guys. I doubt you'd kick Sammy Sosa or Ricky Henderson out of bed for eating crackers, and telling you good they were.
Okay, I'll shut up now. Hah!
In the interest of full disclosure I made the classic mistake of looking at the chart, then the last couple paragraphs and jumped into the post. Only after I posted did I go back and see you had made the well reasoned rebuttal to the point I made. Sorry bout dat. If I'd have paid attention I might have muttered to myself "Not sure I'm ready to buy that yet" but I wouldn't have posted.
Another comeback or two like this and I will be rabidly on board!
since most of us, including myself, had pretty much written him off after last season.
WHAT A GAME!!!
Too many things to mention. Just a GREAT GAME!
It pretty much has to be 39-1 with 4 runs of suport... I can't imagine Felix has possibly had 40 games where he had a 4 run lead!
